Benefits of Current and Future Satellite Applications in FAA operations (and a little about the FAA’s OCONUS Weather Research) Steve Abelman Manager, FAA Aviation Weather Research Team 15 May 2015

Overview A little about the FAA, NextGen, and FAA sponsored Aviation Weather Research OCONUS specific research activities Science challenges, issues, topics of conversation, etc… 2

National Airspace System Today Air traffic services for the world’s largest and busiest airspace. Air traffic controllers track aircraft and keep them separated as they fly between navigation aids on the ground. Radar periodically updates the location of aircraft. Controllers communicate using radios and telephones. Nav aids are located where geography allows and do not provide the most direct routes. Controllers often add distance between aircraft to ensure safety. Weather causes 75 percent of delays. 3

Delivering NextGen Improvements Legacy System NextGen Radar Inefficient Routes Voice Communications Disparate Information Fragmented Weather Forecasting Weather Restricted Visibility Forensic Safety Systems Nationwide Focus Satellite Performance Based Navigation (fuel savings) Voice & Digital Communications Automated Decision Support Tools Integrated Weather Information Improved Access in Low Visibility Prognostic Safety Systems Focus on Congested Metroplexes 4

Aviation Weather Division Assures development and integration of productive weather information into Air Traffic Management (ATM) decisions by pilots, controllers, flight operators, and airport operators through orchestration of:  Better quality weather information  Better access to weather information  Better utilization of weather information Aligns and manages the weather research portfolio toward new concepts/capabilities that reduce the impact of weather in the NAS Represents U.S. MET Authority on International coordination/harmonization activity Provides critical subject matter expertise for all things weather across the FAA 5

FAA Aviation Weather Research 6 Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) Applied research to minimize the impact of weather on the NAS by: Meeting specific NextGen Operational Improvements in NextGen Implementation Plans Evolving weather information required today in legacy capabilities to meet emerging NextGen needs often in collaboration with the National Weather Service Developing enhanced weather information for line of sight integration into operational decision support processes for safety and efficiency Weather Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC) Research to develop minimum weather services for Part 91 aircraft and Part 121/135 aircraft. These services will define the minimum meteorological (MET) information needed in cockpits, the parameters (i.e., accuracy, update rate, spatial resolution) of the information, recommended human factors attributes (i.e., display, interfaces, etc), and enhanced training recommendations.

Satellites provide advanced weather information to enable collaborative planning and efficient utilization of airspace routes through the entire flight Cloud Classification, Lightning, Convective Initiation, Cloud & Moisture Imagery, Low Ceiling & Visibility (Aerosols, clouds, dust), Overshooting Tops, Precipitation, Snow Cloud Classification, Jet Stream, Volcanic Ash, Turbulence, Icing, Winds, Convective Initiation, Mountain Waves, Cloud & Moisture Imagery, Cloud Top Information Cloud Classification, Lightning, Convective Initiation, Low Ceiling & Visibility, Overshooting Tops, Icing, Precipitation, Snow Nowcasting, Convective Initiation, Hazards, Numerical Weather Prediction Forecasts (winds, precipitation, clouds, pressure, etc.)

AWRP, WTIC, and OCONUS We recognize many of the GA weather challenges specific to AK weather and have several focused initiatives addressing AK specifically:  Icing Product Alaska - new techniques to improve analysis and forecast of Icing potential  C&V – Working with NCAR and AAWU to improve C&V analysis fields over AK through model data, satellite data, and use of FAA web camera image processing.  WTIC looking at minimum weather service for mobile weather applications 8

Icing Product Alaska (IPA) Developing Diagnosis and Forecast icing product for Alaska Calibrated icing probability, icing severity, and potential for SLD (including freezing drizzle and freezing rain); gridded product o Considering Alaska HRRR model data and Polar-Orbiting satellite to enhance development of IPA o Full integration of POES/GOES data in high resolution model runs for IPA full suite of real-time icing conditions and potential icing outputs o Transition to NWS and dissemination on operational ADDS FY17

Offshore Precipitation Capability UTC A prototype in development, sponsored by FAA, merges satellite imagery from GOES, Global lightning data, and NWP model data to create an estimate of precipitation offshore in a real-time capacity, which is merged seamlessly with NEXRAD data. GOES-R is a potential game changer in the product! Hurricane Gonzalo

Research to Operations Considerations Lots of discussion so far about the challenges of how to ensure good research doesn’t sit on a shelf FAA sponsored research is very applied, almost no fundamental research left in portfolio Why? Challenging budget environments, past failures, pressure from industry, and more Proposed research must have a path to operations! Luckily, FAA to NWS path is stronger than ever 11

How are we doing? There is increasing pressure to quantify success in everything we do Do improvements in science lead to improvements in operational exploitation? Examples include:  Volcanic Ash – big challenge to measure our baseline performance  Numerical Modeling – does high resolution and rapidly updating mean more efficient use of airspace  Is the FAA ready for GOES-R and can we handle the onslaught of data AWRP sponsoring Aviation Weather Demonstration and Evaluation Services (AWDE) lab at FAA Tech Center in Atlantic City, NJ. Primary object is user evaluations with operational SMEs in controlled environments  Upcoming evaluations include NWS convective weather products (CAWS), updates to automated turbulence guidance, and operational analysis of VA product needs 12

Additional Topics/Challenges Tactical versus strategic applications  Towers, Terminal Radar Approach Control Facilities, Air Route Traffic Control Centers, the Air Traffic Control System Command Center, and airlines all have different weather needs at different timelines  The value added by the human meteorologist is rarely questioned in strategic planning time frames (2-8 hours), but more tactical applications are different  Satellite alerts are the types of tactical applications that FAA is very interested in Bandwidth issues  Amount of data possible from GOES-R, new numerical weather prediction models and other sources may overwhelm current communication circuits Weather Uncertainty  How to integrate uncertainty inherent in weather into decision support tools for operations; probabilistic versus deterministic outputs Putting satellite data into hands of non-meteorologists 13

BACK-UP SLIDES 14

Thunderstorms and Convection

Ceiling and Visibility Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) probabilities over Chicago O’Hare detected by satellite

Icing GOES data provides improved resolution of icing conditions Aviation Weather Center Advisories Icing conditions not always captured with traditional methods

Volcanic Support Ash Detection product (left) and Ash Loading (right) using the GOES-R Volcanic Ash Algorithm applied to Meteosat- 9/SEVIRI data 1 (From Mike Pavolonis, NESDIS/STAR, and Justin Sieglaff, CIMSS) 2010 Eyjafjallajokull volcanic eruption Satellite imagery is the primary source for detection of volcanic eruptions and tracking of ash plumes around the world.

Alaska Cloud cover or fog and observed visibilities for Alaska using satellite imagery – experimental product Polar satellite (POES) image valid at 15:17 local time on Saturday, 4 Apr 2015