WMO The WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project – bringing the benefits of leading NWP to developing countries Ken Mylne Chair DPFS (Data-processing and Forecasting Systems) & Chair SWFDP SG Thanks to Alice Soares (WMO), Caroline Bain and Bob Turner (Met Office), Eugene Poolman (S. Africa) and James Lunny (NZ) WMO; WDS

Fundamental idea of SWFDP NOAA/NCEP UK Met Office ECMWF Global Centres Users National Centres Global forecasting capabilities Well resourced National populations protected by severe weather warnings No forecasting capability Poorly resourced Populations vulnerable No severe weather warnings

Fundamental idea of SWFDP NOAA/NCEP UK Met Office ECMWF Global Centres Users (Regional Forecasting Support Centre RFSC) Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre RSMC National Centres GDPFS PWS

 Global NWP centres to provide available NWP/EPS and sat-based products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame;  Regional centres to interpret information received from global centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs;  NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with user communities, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project;  NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services. 4 Global Centres User communities, including Disaster Management authorities NMCsRSMC Pretoria SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process

Differences between SWFDP and FDP/RDP SWFDP  CBS  Operational  Aim for long-term sustainability  PWS development  Exploit science to save lives and property FDP/RDP  WWRP/CAS  Research  Limited trial period  SERA research  Improve methods and science

Main goals of SWFDP  Improve warnings of severe weather and lead-time on alerts  Improve collaborative working and relationships between NHMSs  Provide feedback to global centres on the performance of their models Capacity development Disaster risk reduction Climate change adaptation (GFCS) Socio-economic sectors (AeM, AgM, etc) Basic systems (WIGOS, WIS)

 RSMC analysis forecast information  Guidance every day for the next 5 days  Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell, severe winter weather  Guidance info made available through dedicated Webpage to NMCs  Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC Pretoria

SWFDP Development and Implementation: a 4-step cycle  Establish regional partnerships ­Regional management teams; focus on forecasting and warning services of meteorological-related hazards  Plan and develop of prototype demonstration project ­Regional project-specific IP for which the management team is accountable. IP describes team members’ responsibilities, project activities and milestones (typically for months)  Implement demonstration project ­Tracking, continuously evaluation, training and reporting  Broaden and sustain successful prototypes ­(return to step 1) Under the Guidance of the Steering Group of the SWFDP

Training Funded by NZ Ministry for the Environment Tropical meteorology and climatology, “why do we need ensembles?”, how to interpret NWP from different centres. 3-5 days per country. Aimed at a broad base of forecasters. No equations. More time spent on exercises than on lectures. “DRR Day” – practical exercises involving outside agencies.

WMO  Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC-TC La R é union)  Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC-TC Fiji)  Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar)  Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries; RFSC Hanoi)  Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries; RSMC-TC New Delhi)  WMO global and regional operational centres (e.g. RSMCs)  42 NMHSs of developing countries (29 of which are LDCs/SIDSs)  Several WMO programmes (i.e. GDPFS, PWS, TCP, DRR, MMO, AgM, SP, ETR, CD, LDC, RP, and WWRP) and technical commissions (i.e. CBS, CAgM, CHy, JCOMM, and CAS) SWFDP Regional Projects

SWFDP East Africa  6 countries  RSMC Nairobi  RFSC Dar (Lake Victoria)

Forecasting and nowcasting tools Satellite and remote sensing Forecaster guidance Numerical Prediction Models

Forecasting and nowcasting tools Satellite and remote sensing Numerical Prediction Models Forecaster guidance (under construction on the website but access through EUMETSAT/ PUMA system) Lightning IR RGB Severe Convection

Forecasting and nowcasting tools Satellite and remote sensing Numerical Prediction Models Forecaster guidance ModelProducing centre UKMO Lake Victoria UKMO WRFKMS (from NOAA/ NCAR) COSMOKMS (developed at DWD) Unified ModelUKMO ECMWF IFSECMWF GFSNOAA/ NCAR Higher resolution Lower resolution

High resolution models: Lake Victoria Validation of model: Case study 17 th December km modelGlobal modelObservations MSG Satellite OLR 17/12/ UTC T+18 forecast Chamberlain, J. M., C.L. Bain, D.F.A. Boyd, K. McCourt, T. Butcher and S. Palmer (2013): Forecasting storms over Lake Victoria using a high-resolution model. Meteorological Applications

Forecasting and nowcasting tools Satellite and remote sensing Numerical Prediction Models Forecaster guidance

GIFS products for SWFDP (MRI-JMA) Now being implemented operationally – JMA - Met Office collaboration SWFDP: - Southern Africa - Eastern Africa - Southwest Pacific - Southeast Asia

Daily Teleconferencing between forecasters Met Office GGU Kenya (Cross region) Tanzania (Lake Victoria) Rwanda Uganda Burundi Ethiopia South Sudan Consensus Support Collaboration

Nice theory, but how does it work in reality? Here’s one example: Background: Kiribati is a participating country in the SW Pacific SWFDP. It sits either side of the equator. It is made up of 32 low-lying atolls; most of it is <2 metres above sea level. Large Waves are the most significant weather threat to Kiribati.

In Wellington….. + Meteorologist consults variety of guidance to produce a high-level overview chart:

Kiribati forecaster accesses MetConnect Pacific to find chart In Kiribati… Further internal discussion Application of local knowledge Contact Wellington/Fiji if needed?

“Special Weather Bulletin” issued Contact relevant government departments, ports authority etc. Deal with media This is really down to the individual country – they know the structures and local conditions Monitor event with new guidance; respond to official/public/media enquiries Feedback after the event. Format of warning? Enough time to prepare? Accurate?

Consider Tropical Cyclones Eline (2000) and Favio (2007) (both equivalent to Cat 4 hurricanes ~220 km/h winds) Doc Ref no: FCAST-PRE-SWFDP TC Eline 2000 Mozambique: – 700 deaths, 4.5 million affected – Mozambique was not prepared from a DRR perspective – Massive international rescue and support TC Favio 2007 Mozambique: – 29 deaths, affected – Warnings issued days in advance – Disaster management infrastructure mobilized – Communities prepared in prior training were successfully evacuated within 2 days How did improved EWS through SWFDP contribute to this success for TC Favio?

Case Study: Tropical Cyclone Favio Feb 2007 TC Favio caused widespread damage over Mozambique and Zimbabwe The consistency of model forecasts provided confidence to RSMC Pretoria to issue guidance to NMCs on potential landfall and movement 5 days in advance The model forecast proved to be quite accurate with landfall at Vilancoulos, moving to Eastern Zimbabwe

Impact of Tropical Cyclone Favio Doc Ref no: FCAST-PRE-SWFDP In both Mozambique and Zimbabwe the NMCs agreed with the guidance products and issued warnings 5 days in advance to disaster management departments In Mozambique: – Provinces were put on alert levels days in advance – The public responded well and major loss of live were prevented In Zimbabwe: – Public received early warnings by radio, TV and newspapers 5 days in advance

Evaluation Since Eline in 2000 there was a dramatic improvement in the entire DRR system in Mozambique – including EWS through SWFDP Question: How much of the savings of human lives can really be directly attributed to SWFDP? – SWFDP definitely lead to earlier warnings issued which resulted in earlier evacuations

WMO The Future - Expansion of SWFDP to a global Programme to Strengthen Operational Centres  Expansion of the SWFDP towards global coverage (3 development and demonstration phases)  Transition to sustainable operations (phase 4) It requires a programme office to support non-operational activities and development of new SWFDP regional projects 27 Green : existing projects / lead RSMC Blue : projects to be initiated in 2014 / lead RSMC Red : future projects / lead RSMC

SWFDP Role in HIWeather Project  Testbed for new forecast products and capabilities  Feedback and verification (subjective?)  SERA work in building PWS requirements and relationships  But please remember…  Regional Centres and NMHSs have very limited resources  Focus must be on operational work  Issuing warnings  Developing PWS user relations and response plans  Staff and user training  Sustainability 28

Thank you for your attention DISCUSSION