1 Workshop on “Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios” (29-30 June 2004, EEA, Copenhagen) Introduction to 2005 State of the Environment and Outlook report and workshop objectives André Jol Group leader air and climate change European Environment Agency

2 Rationale behind the SoEOR2005 EEA regulation: “EEA shall publish a report on the state of, trends in and prospects for the environment every five years, supplemented by indicator reports focusing upon specific issues” Support the mid-term review of the 6th EAP Link to the EU Sustainable Development Strategy (integration of environment into sectors)

3 SoEOR2005 : 9 Sub-Reports SR1: Unsustainable household consumption? SR2: Environmental aspects of enlargement SR3: Halting the loss of biodiversity SR4: Sustainable use and management of natural resources SR5: Policy integration SR6: Climate change, air quality and sustainable energy SR7: European Environment Outlook SR8: Europe’s environment and the global dimension SR9: Environment and health

4 SoEOR Timetable First Draft of SoEOR2005 Final Drafts and Publication of selected SRs FAMM J J 2004 J Preparation of First Drafts of sub- reports First consultation on sub-reports 2005 ASOND FAMM J J ASONDJ Consultation SRs Preparation of First Draft of SoEOR Decision on publication of SRs Consultation on SoEOR2005 Editing, Publication, Dissemination SoEOR2005 translations Communication

5 Draft scenario results: March Advisory group meeting: 14 April Additional scenarios: April-August Scenario review at workshop: June Finalising technical report on scenarios: Sep Second advisory group meeting: Sep/Oct Draft sub-report: Aug/Oct Review sub-report: Dec/Jan 2005 Final sub-report: Feb 2005 Time schedule sub report 6 Climate change, air quality and sustainable energy

6 Advisory Group To provide advice to EEA on: the outline of the sub-report the assumptions of the “sustainable emission pathway” scenario and variants the identification of similar national/international reports/activities from which EEA could benefit, and help to enhance the added value of the EEA project approaches for and timing of consultation with EEA member countries, European Commission, industrial and environmental NGOs events for possible launch of the main results Participation, meetings: DG ENV, DG TREN, WBGU, IIASA, WHO/EMEP, EEA SC meeting twice at EEA: 14 April 2004 and September asked to participate in the workshop on June

7 Focus of the EEA sub-report EU 6EAP and SDS, aimed at changing the global and European economy towards sustainability Possible medium-long term targets for both climate change and air quality (2020/2030) Effectiveness of existing policies and measures (past) and future ( , baseline scenario) A “sustainable emission pathway” scenario based on the long-term EU 6EAP climate change objective (of +2C above pre-industrial levels), which requires substantial reduction of EU GHG emissions by 2030 Scenario analysis of possible elements of a sustainability transition in energy and in other sectors “Sustainable emission pathway” scenario impact on air quality in Europe (closely coordinated with CAFE)

8 Use of key Commission and other studies Clean Air for Europe Programme baseline scenario 2020 (to be finalised Sep 2004) (consortium lead by IIASA) Long Range Energy Modelling baseline scenario (2030) (NTUA) Greenhouse gas reduction pathways in UNFCCC up to 2025 (consortium of CNRS, RIVM, NTUA, KUL) Other studies: WBGU, IEA, IPCC, EMEP, WHO

9 Use of EEA projects and reports Annual analysis of progress towards the Kyoto Protocol targets (EU GHG Monitoring mechanism, underlying annual Commission Communication) (2004) Analysis of national programmes and projections under the National Emission Ceiling Directive (2004) Report on impacts of climate change in Europe (2004) EEA Sectoral reports: Transport and Environment, Energy and Environment, Agriculture and Environment

10 Chapters in the report (1) Part A Climate change and energy 1.Introduction of the issue and the policy frameworks 2.Long term sustainable climate change targets and equitable emission targets by 2050/ Progress to and costs of reaching the Kyoto Protocol and burden sharing targets by Developments in Europe in energy supply and demand in the past, by 2010/2030 with existing policies and measures 5.GHG emissions scenario with existing policies and measures by Current and projected (2050/2100) climate change and its impacts 7.A potentially sustainable GHG emission pathway and energy system by 2030

11 Chapters in the report (2) Part B Air quality 1.Introduction of the issue and the policy frameworks 2.State of air quality/emissions in Progress towards reaching current air emission and air quality targets by Air pollutant emissions and air quality with existing policies and measures by 2020/ Co-benefits of a potentially sustainable GHG emission pathway by 2020/2030 for air pollution through reduced emissions and costs 6.Scenario with additional policies and measures to achieve (possible) future strict 2020/2030 air quality and emission targets

12 Outlook activities for SoEOR2005 (1) In the SoEOR2005, outlooks across sectors / themes to: Show distance to politically agreed targets and potential co-benefits between policies Provide early warnings of environmental impacts (compared with “sustainable” targets) Show potential alternative pathways and strategies Both quantitative and qualitative outlooks are developed; quantitative outlooks whenever models are available and appropriate (baseline projections + policy options scenarios + long-term explorative scenarios) Geographical coverage: EEA member countries (31) Temporal coverage: up to (policy relevant); explorative approaches up to 2050/2100 (env. impacts).

13 Outlook activities for SoEOR2005 (2) Outlooks are developed for sectors and themes: air & climate change (energy, transport, agriculture) waste and material flows water quality and quantity nature protection and biodiversity terrestrial environment and land use development. A common set of assumptions for key baseline scenario driving forces (e.g. economic and population growths, energy flows) is used to ensure consistency and facilitate cross-cutting analysis (DG TREN-LREM: ‘European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030’).

14 Outlook activities for SoEOR2005 (3)

15 Exchange experiences in scenario modelling approaches and outcomes, including studies on long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies, within EEA member countries, the European Commission and in other organisations including NGOs Discuss the initial results of the EEA scenario work, performed by the European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change for EEA’s 2005 State of the Environment and Outlook report and advise EEA on next steps Objectives of the workshop 29/30 June

16 Questions for the workshop What would be developments in EU energy use and supply, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change impacts by with no further policy actions? What should the reduction of EU greenhouse gas emissions be by 2030, to be consistent with the EU long-term climate objective, under different possible future global emission reduction schemes? Which policies and which technological developments are needed to achieve substantial EU greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2030 and what are their costs? What are the most relevant uncertainties in 2030 in scientific aspects, policy areas, and in socio-economic developments?

17 Questions for break out group 1 ”Greenhouse gas emission targets for 2030 (methodological aspects)” Which methodologies are most suited for the EU for assessing dangerous anthropogenic climate change (article 2 of UNFCCC)? Which global long-term climate change targets could the EU select? (Any other targets than the 6EAP target of +2C global temperature increase?) Which global greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide concentration levels are consistent with such a global climate change target? By when should global emissions peak? (Should we aim at convergence of global per capita emissions and if so, in which year should this be realized?) What could be targets for industrialized countries, for developing countries and for EU25 for 2030? How much of the target for the EU25 should be fulfilled through domestic action and how much through international emission trading?

18 Questions for break out group 2 ”Technological developments and policies and measures” Which targets for renewables could be selected for 2020 and 2030? Which technological developments are expected without specific climate change driven policies? Which energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are most promising by 2030? (Regarding environmental effectiveness, costs, etc) What are expected developments of nuclear energy by 2030 regarding safety, waste management, proliferation and costs? What kind of research and development is needed to enhance energy efficient and renewable energy technologies, and in which areas can Europe take the lead? Which new policies and measures are required for the long term transition of the energy system? What are the costs of these policies and measures and which have the highest priorities?