INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE IFPRI Basin Water Research Addis Ababa, May Claudia Ringler On behalf of the IFPRI Water Group

Outline  IFPRI in CRP5 and the basin SRP  Basin-level models  Examples of applications taking into account the Theory of Change of the basin SRP  Important research questions

IFPRI in CRP 5 Active Projects InstituteIFPRI Resp StaffIrrigatedRainfedBasins Environmental Management Options and Delivery Mechanisms to Reduce Malaria Transmission in Uganda IFPRIClaudia Ringler ADB: Technical assistance for the strategic research for sustainable food and nutrition security in Asia (RETA 7648-RE): Water Component IFPRITingju Zhu ESPA: Landscape Diversity and Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Ecosystems: Implications for Sustainable Growth and Rural Poverty in China IFPRIWei Zhang Smallholder Irrigation and Poverty Alleviation IWMI (w/IFPRI, FAO, IDE, SEI) Claudia Ringler Linking Increases in Water Use Efficiency for Food Production at the Farm Scale to Global Projections ATB (w/IFPRI) Tingju Zhu Experimental Games for Strengthening Collective Action? Learning from Field Experiments in India and Colombia IFPRIRuth Meinzen-Dick Global Water Futures (Book) IFPRI with CRP5 Claudia Ringler Mekong water valuationWorldFishClaudia Ringler

CRP5 Basin SRP—Theory of Change  Role of basins in managing resource variability  Basins as loci of water infrastructure  Basins for sustainably allocating water and land resources – and equitable sharing of benefits  Water in a political economy context

BASIN-LEVEL MODELS  IMPACT Water Simulation Model (Global Hydrologic Model and Water Allocation Model)  SWAT models  Node-Link River Basin Models (Hydro-economic models)

6 Integrated Modeling of Global Water & Food Systems

7 Modeled Natural & Artificial Processes

Global Hydrological Model - IGHM 8  Semi-distributed model running at 30’ grid cells, using global database of climate, soil and land cover  Estimating potential ET with a radiation-based method  ‘Bucket’ soil water balance considering sub- grid variability of soil water property  Produces total runoff at grid cells and FPUs

Global Water Allocation Model - IWSM

Agricultural Sector Model - IMPACT

Adaptation Scenario Basin Efficiency Improvement Rainwater Harvesting Enhancement Storage Augmentation NONENNN ALLYYY BE+YNN RH+NYN ST+NNY Adaptation scenarios: NONE – no adaptation; ALL – combining basin efficiency improvement, rainwater harvesting and storage augmentation; BE+ – basin efficiency improvement; RH+ – rainwater harvesting enhancement; ST+ – storage augmentation. EX - Scenarios of water-based climate change adaptation options for South Asia and Southeast Asia

EX: Effectiveness of Adaptation Scenarios, evaluated by IWSR 2050

SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) Hydrology, water quality, crop production, and water and land management

Ex: Assessment of smallholder irrigation options through linkage with supply/demand and crop mix optimization model

Ex: SWAT-Pakistan model development  Digital elevation data and watershed delineation Source of data: HydroSHEDS

SWAT-Pakistan model development Crop Irrigated area (m ha) % of total irr area Crop Irrigated area (m ha) % of total irr area Wheat7.647%Cotton318% Rice2.414% Sugar- cane 16% Other2.616% Wheat Cotton Rice Sugarcan e GLC2000 IFPRI SPAM global crop allocation model Generic landcover classification Crop specific  Landcover data

SWAT-Pakistan model development  Estimated groundwater depletion rates in major farming areas in Pakistan Source: Author estimate.

Node-Link River Basin Models

Ex: Yellow River Basin Focal Projects 19 Input SWAT-BNU Input YRCC SIMULATION MODEL Input UIUC MAS MODEL

20 52 general agents 5 reservoir agents 3 ecosystem agents Water Consumption, Alternative Allocation Scenarios Source: Cai et al. 2011

Important research questions  From basin science to impact  Agricultural intensification—how can basins enhance positive and reduce adverse impacts (quantity & quality)  Energy use in a river basin context (including HP/biofuels/irrigation/fertilizers)  Water resource re-allocation in response to intensifying inter-sectoral competition and changing development priorities  Irrigation water availability under global change