First ASEAN Statistical Report on MDGs Indicators Some Findings and Points For Discussion ASEAN Secretariat Paper International Conference on MDGs Indicators Manila, 29-21 October 2011

Outline Background Feasibility Study Objectives of the Report Features of the Report General Approach Preliminary Results Some Notes Some Preliminary Findings

Background MDGs, poverty alleviation and narrowing the development as important goals of ASEAN Community building The 8 goals and 21 targets of the MDGs and the Community goals of ASEAN Some significant challenges still need to be overcome to fully achieve the MDGs and narrow the development gap

Background Under the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC): Joint Declaration on the Attainment of MDGs, 2009. Roadmap and monitoring and evaluation system Framework Plan of Action on Rural Development and Poverty Eradication Work Plan for Primary Education and Gender Equality Work Plan on the Elimination of Violence against Women The narrowing development gap

Background Strong demand for ASEAN level indicators support the implementation and monitoring of the Joint Declaration on the attainment of the MDGs, ASCC Blueprint; very little is available concerning ASEAN level socio-cultural indicators; demand for absolute value of ASEAN figures on key indicators such as poverty, infant mortality, children with malnutrition, unemployment, etc. demand for sub-region of ASEAN (CLMV and ASEAN6) to facilitate the narrowing development gap. reinforce the “we” feeling.

Feasibility Study, 2010 Q3 Involving 10 ASEAN Member States Outcomes: No single country in ASEAN has covered all of the 60 MDGs indicators; Some indicators have different data sources at the country level, and different definition across countries; Some data are available only in a few countries; The reference period and reference population of some data differ across countries; Some are not disaggregated enough to yield a breakdown by sex, age group, etc.

Feasibility Study, 2010 Q3 possible to compile an ASEAN Statistical Report on the MDGs covering a subset of the recommended indicators For some indicators, meaningful ASEAN aggregates are possible; Differences in reference year can be approached by using data closest to the reference year; For some, the missing figures can be addressed by using estimates; In cases where meaningful comparison is unlikely, the change in level and change in discrepancies can still provide meaningful information

Objectives of the Report to present data on MDGs indicators to facilitate the monitoring of progress of ASEAN Community in meeting its commitments in achieving the millennium development goals where the ASEAN Community is with regards to the MDG goals and targets progress by which the ASEAN is moving towards the MDGs

Features of the Report a statistical report; as such, it will not: evaluate policies and programs provide policy/program analysis/ recommendations presents: Tables, charts, maps progress, disparities, pace of progress, years needed to reach a certain target ASEAN and sub-ASEAN region covers: 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 covers, as a start, 27 agreed indicators to be updated every 2 years: 2011, 2013, 2015

General approach AMSs should be involved in all stages Any estimates should be done in collaboration with AMSs and get AHSOM endorsement ASEAN Heads of Statistical Offices Meeting (AHSOM) endorsed in July 2010 the plan to carry out a feasibility study In December 2010 AHSOM endorsed the workshop’s recommendations including the proposed 27 indicators

General Approach Basic data will come from the official statistics of AMSs Imputations using linear interpolations will be done to come up with data for the selected years – 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010, as necessary Imputed values will be subject to review and approval by the AMS ASEAN aggregate will be based on at least 5 AMSs covering more than 50% of ASEAN population

Classification of Progress For indicators with explicit targets by 2015 Early achiever: already achieved the 2015 target On track : expected to meet the target by 2015 Slow: expected to meet the target by after 2015 No progress/regressing: stagnating or slipping backwards For indicators without explicit targets by 2015 Early achiever: trending in the right direction since 1990 On track : showing no change at all over the period Off track -No progress/regressing: trending in the wrong direction

Preliminary Results

Full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people The proportion of employed population increased over time; and in 2010 , 60.8 % population in ASEAN5 are estimated to be employed, with Singapore having the highest proportion.

Net Enrollment Ratio in Primary Education Net enrolment ratio in primary education has generally increased, from 86.9 percent in 1990 to 90.6 percent in 2010. Myanmar and Thailand showed the greatest advances, significantly narrowing the gap with other ASEAN 5 countries

Gender Equality and Empower Women Girls and boys have almost equal opportunities in attending primary and secondary education, with the boys at a slight advantage. Girls have more access in Thailand and Myanmar.

Seats held by women in national parliament ASEAN level figure was still les than 15% in 2010, and will be very much affected as more data is available An indication of strong positive trend, however, is apparent.

CLMV continues to lag behind ASEAN6 in reducing infant mortality 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 ASEAN 6 56 46 35 28 19 CLMV 75 55 48 36 29 Ratio of ASEAN 6 to CLMV 0.7 0.8 Both ASEAN 6 and CLMV have successfully reduced mortality rate to lower than half since 1990. However, in 2010 both still recorded around or above 20, and CLMV continues to lag behind the ASEAN 6.

Infant mortality rate has declined by more than half from1990 to 2010 Despite the progress, there are still an estimated 150,000 children who died before they reached the age of one year old, or about 415 infants die each day in the region.

77 percent of children immunized against measles in 2010 From 59 percent in 1995, the proportion of 1-year old children immunized against measles has gone up to 77 percent

ASEAN has significantly reduced the number of births not attended by skilled health personnel since 1990 In 2010, however, 1 out of every 5 births still unattended by skilled health personnel

ASEAN has halved Maternal Mortality Ratio since 1990 Despite the progress, 44 women die each day from pregnancy related causes; and progress towards reducing by three quarters the maternal mortality ratio has been slow

Disparities in Maternal Mortality Ratio, however, was huge in 2010

Efforts to combat malaria and TB have led to dramatic reduction in the incidence of malaria but mild in TB incidence of malaria has declined from 755 cases per 100,000 population in 1990 to 198 cases per 100,000 population to 2010, but only from 148 to 132 cases per 100,000 population for tuberculosis

Disparity was however still extremely high in 2010

The loss of forest cover slowed down The loss of forest cover slowed down. Recent data suggest that reforestation efforts have halted further declines. The proportion of land area covered by forest has declined by 4 percentage points since 1990, but the loss of forest cover slowed down recently.

The target of 69.5 percent for improved sanitation for 2015 has been achieved in 2010! However, 3 out of every 10 persons in 2010 still do not have access to improved sanitation facility more than one-third (37%) of the population still do not have access to improved drinking water source (caution: Indonesia’s case, only 44%)

Access to new information and communication technologies has been increasing rapidly There are 83 cellular subscribers for every 100 population in 2010, up from 23 in 2005; and 21 internet users per 100 population in 2010, up from 6 in 2005. The increase in telephone lines has been slower, from 4 per 100 population in 2000 to 9 in 2010

CLMV have caught up with those in ASEAN 6 in the proportion of telephone lines and cellular subscribers Telephone lines Cellular subscriber Internet users 2000 2005 2010 ASEAN 6 5 10 9 CLMVa 2 4 2005 2010 ASEAN 6 29 85 CLMVa 7 77 2005 2010 ASEAN 6a 6 22 CLMVb 5 12 Per 100 population Does not include Lao PDR Per 100 population ASEAN 6 does not include Malaysia and the Phillippines CLMV does not include Lao PDR Per 100 population

Cellular phone subscribers reached more than 100 in Singapore, Viet Nam, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, and Thailand, and above 70 in others except in Myanmar

Indication of Pace of Progress in ASEAN (Preliminary) Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger  Target Estimate for 2010 Progress Target 1.A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day x   Proportion of population below the national poverty line 26 19 early achiever Share of poorest quintile in national consumption Target 1.B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people Growth rate of GDP per person employed Employment-to-population ratio Target 1.C: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger Prevalence of underweight children under-five years of age 17.4 17.3

Indication of Pace of Progress (preliminary) Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education   Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling Net enrolment ratio in primary education 100 90.6 slow Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds, women and men 98.6 on track Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Target 3.A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015 Ratio of girls to boys in primary education Ratio of girls to boys in secondary education 99 Ratio of girls to boys in tertiary education off track Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament

Indication of Pace of Progress (Preliminary) Goal 4: Reduce child mortality  Target Estimate for 2010 Progress Target 4.A: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate Under-five mortality rate 33 41 On track Infant mortality rate 21 24  Proportion of 1 year-old children immunised against measles 77 on track Goal 5: Improve maternal health    Target 5.A: Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio Maternal mortality ratio 73 146 slow Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel 78 early achiever Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Target 6.C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases Incidence of malaria 198 Incidence of tuberculosis  132  early achiever

Indication of Pace of Progress (Preliminary) Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability   Target 7.A: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources Proportion of land area covered by forest 54 off track Target 7.C: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation Proportion of population using an improved drinking water source 77.5 63 slow Proportion of population using an improved sanitation facility 69.5 70 early achiever Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Target 8.F: In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications Telephone lines per 100 population 29 Cellular subscribers per 100 population 83 Internet users per 100 population 21

Some Notes Not showing a full picture of MDG achievement In some cases not showing a full picture of ASEAN. Some figures are subject to change and more indicators will be presented as more data is available. The same issues of definition as faced by other international organizations remain

Some Preliminary Findings Some countries are catching up very fast with their neighbors. Some countries have experienced reversals. Countries that are lagging behind are not always the CLMV countries. While the ASEAN 6 may be performing better than the CLMV countries in terms of economic performance, this is not usually the case with respect to the MDG indicators. Disparities among countries are pronounced especially in maternal mortality ratio,…

Caution in Interpretation Different Practices such as in: Birth attended by skilled health personnel Slow maternal mortality Bottled water Forest cover Comparability with international estimates Harmonization of concept and definition

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