Western Water Supply Kevin Werner, Andrew Murray, WR/SSD Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise Cass Goodman, Steve Shumate, CBRFC Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC Don Laurine, NWRFC Chad Kahler, WFO Tucson Kevin Werner, Andrew Murray, WR/SSD Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise Cass Goodman, Steve Shumate, CBRFC Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC Don Laurine, NWRFC Chad Kahler, WFO Tucson

OutlineOutline  Western Water Supply  History  Project overview  Westwide map  Forecast evolution  Verification  Ensemble services  Future enhancements  Climate variability and change  Short range ensembles services  Western Water Supply  History  Project overview  Westwide map  Forecast evolution  Verification  Ensemble services  Future enhancements  Climate variability and change  Short range ensembles services

Western Water Supply Forecasts  Forecasts for spring runoff amounts from snow melt dominated basins in western US  Routinely produced at 6 RFCs and coordinated with other agencies (NRCS and California DWR)  NWS forecast program began in 1940s  Primary forecast tools:  Ensemble Streamflow Prediction  Multivariate Linear Regression  Forecasts for spring runoff amounts from snow melt dominated basins in western US  Routinely produced at 6 RFCs and coordinated with other agencies (NRCS and California DWR)  NWS forecast program began in 1940s  Primary forecast tools:  Ensemble Streamflow Prediction  Multivariate Linear Regression Legacy Water Supply Forecast Product (Credit: NRCS / NOAA)

Project in a Nutshell  Goals:  A “one stop shop” for NWS water information at the seasonal timescale  Consistent presentation of products between RFCs  Harness collective innovation from multiple offices  Users:  Existing Water Supply forecast users  Strong support from USBR and state water resources agencies for examples  Groups with cross basin interests (e.g. media, power companies)  NWS internal users  Major Components:  Map: Single map for all western WS forecasts from 6 RFCs  Forecast evolution: Plotting capability to show evolution of current year forecast and observed river flow  Verification: Forecast evaluation from past forecasts and forecast tools  Ensemble services: Interaction capability with ensemble streamflow predication  Goals:  A “one stop shop” for NWS water information at the seasonal timescale  Consistent presentation of products between RFCs  Harness collective innovation from multiple offices  Users:  Existing Water Supply forecast users  Strong support from USBR and state water resources agencies for examples  Groups with cross basin interests (e.g. media, power companies)  NWS internal users  Major Components:  Map: Single map for all western WS forecasts from 6 RFCs  Forecast evolution: Plotting capability to show evolution of current year forecast and observed river flow  Verification: Forecast evaluation from past forecasts and forecast tools  Ensemble services: Interaction capability with ensemble streamflow predication

Project in a Nutshell (con’t)  Milestones (past):  April 2005: Working group formed, planning meeting held  January 2006: Initial website launched  September 2006: Included AB, WG, and MB RFCs in development  January 2007: Common database developed  March 2007: Launched outreach effort and included SHs  Milestones (future):  August 2007: Launch verification 1.0 capabilities  September 2007: Move software to NWRFC web farm  October 2007: Launch forecast evolution 2.0  October 2007: Launch ensemble services 1.0  January 2008: Integrate WGRFC data  2008?: Integrate climate change capabilities  Milestones (past):  April 2005: Working group formed, planning meeting held  January 2006: Initial website launched  September 2006: Included AB, WG, and MB RFCs in development  January 2007: Common database developed  March 2007: Launched outreach effort and included SHs  Milestones (future):  August 2007: Launch verification 1.0 capabilities  September 2007: Move software to NWRFC web farm  October 2007: Launch forecast evolution 2.0  October 2007: Launch ensemble services 1.0  January 2008: Integrate WGRFC data  2008?: Integrate climate change capabilities

MapMap   “One Stop Shop” for NWS water supply forecasts  Flexible and consistent map presence across western USA  Zoomable to basin scale  Mouse over capability for forecast values   “One Stop Shop” for NWS water supply forecasts  Flexible and consistent map presence across western USA  Zoomable to basin scale  Mouse over capability for forecast values

Forecast Evolution  Evolution of current year forecast and observed streamflow  Options to include:  Normal streamflow volume  Forecast window  Forecast accumulation  Accumulated Observed, etc…  Originally developed at NWRFC  Version 2.0 contract development work proceeding  Add ESP forecasts  Add interactive features  Evolution of current year forecast and observed streamflow  Options to include:  Normal streamflow volume  Forecast window  Forecast accumulation  Accumulated Observed, etc…  Originally developed at NWRFC  Version 2.0 contract development work proceeding  Add ESP forecasts  Add interactive features

Forecast Verification Data Visualization Error  MAE, RMSE, etc  Conditional on Lead time, year Skill  Skill relative to Climatology  Conditional Categorical  Traditional (NWS) verification including FAR and POD  Category definitions tied to climatology values (e.g. mean flow, terciles, etc.) or user definable  Goal: Provide users of all types with forecast verification information  Easy to understand  Meaningful  Accessible from forecasts  Dynamically generated plots from database  Goal: Provide users of all types with forecast verification information  Easy to understand  Meaningful  Accessible from forecasts  Dynamically generated plots from database Plot credit: Chad Kahler

Ensemble Services  Goals:  Intuitive user interface for current ensemble forecast  Access to archived streamflow data for perspective  Dynamic, flexible plots  Access to underlying data and database  Climate change scenarios  Goals:  Intuitive user interface for current ensemble forecast  Access to archived streamflow data for perspective  Dynamic, flexible plots  Access to underlying data and database  Climate change scenarios

Climate Change  Latest IPCC report confirms “temperatures averaged over all habitable continents … will very likely rise at greater than the global average rate in the next 50 years and by an amount substantially in excess of natural variability.” (IPCC WR1, 2007) Source: IPCC, 2007

Trends in 1 Apr SWE over the 1960–2002 (left) and (right) periods of record directly from snow course observations from Mote (2006) and Mote et al. (2005) respectively.

Extend NWS Product Suite?  Current product suite covers hours to seasons;  Should we consider climate change scenarios and build multi-year products for run-off, temperature, precipitation?  User requirements from power companies, USBR, etc for climate change scenarios  Current product suite covers hours to seasons;  Should we consider climate change scenarios and build multi-year products for run-off, temperature, precipitation?  User requirements from power companies, USBR, etc for climate change scenarios Climate Change based run off scenarios? Years

Water Supply with Climate Change  Many in water community are asking for it  Idea: Provide scenario based water supply outlooks in the context of historical data and current season forecasts  Include uncertainty  Temperature, precipitation, and/or lead time based scenarios  Ultimately link scenarios to atmospheric carbon based scenarios  Leverage historical simulation capabilities in ESP  Many in water community are asking for it  Idea: Provide scenario based water supply outlooks in the context of historical data and current season forecasts  Include uncertainty  Temperature, precipitation, and/or lead time based scenarios  Ultimately link scenarios to atmospheric carbon based scenarios  Leverage historical simulation capabilities in ESP

Leveraging ESP for long range scenarios  Multiple “historical simulation” runs:  Use historical basin temperature and precipitation time series  Build ensemble by repeatedly shifting year order by one  Incorporate scenarios through additive (temperature) or multiplicative (precipitation) year-wise adjustments  Multiple “historical simulation” runs:  Use historical basin temperature and precipitation time series  Build ensemble by repeatedly shifting year order by one  Incorporate scenarios through additive (temperature) or multiplicative (precipitation) year-wise adjustments

ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point: Columbia River at the Dalles Dam ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point: Columbia River at the Dalles Dam Archive Current Forecast Climate Change Options O Normal Runoff O Model Normal O Historical Year(s) O Ensemble Streamflow Prediction O Ensemble members by forcing year(s) O Ensemble members by ENSO O Year (slider bar ) O Temperature (slider bar -5 F - +5 F) O Carbon Scenario O Accumulate over period O Plot Type (box and whisker, bar, lines, etc.) O Data O Plot interval (set axes limits)

SummarySummary  Western Water Supply  History  Current capabilities  Coming enhancements  Verification  Water Supply ensemble services  Climate Change  Western Water Supply  History  Current capabilities  Coming enhancements  Verification  Water Supply ensemble services  Climate Change

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