TECHNOLOGY, PATH DEPENDENCY AND CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY STEVE RAYNER James Martin Professor of Science and Civilization University of Oxford Honorary Professor of Climate Change and Society University of Copenhagen Member of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution

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IPCC EMISSIONS SCENARIOS

THE REAL SCALE OF THE EMISSIONS STABILIZATION CHALLENGE

TIME IS NOT ON OUR SIDE - RAISING CARBON COSTS VERSUS LOWERING TECHNOLOGY COSTS cost carbon non-C time

WORLD ENERGY MIX (2004)

NEXT STEPS IN THE POLICY PROCESS Bali marked a shift in policy epicentre from Atlantic to Pacific Copenhagen will continue with trading but accept reality that “heavy lifting” will require technological change USA will lead world in emissions reductions within 5-10 years Problem of getting “dirty” technologies out of the bottom Significant new investments in adaptation to climate (not just change) Increasing acceptance of the need for “Plan B” – Geoengineering

GEOENGINEERING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ATMOSPHERIC CARBON REMOVAL INCREASE RADIATIVE CAPACITY ECOSYSTEMS TINKERING OCEAN IRON FERTILIZATION STRATOSPHERIC AEROSOLS MECHANICAL ENGINEERING AIR CAPTURE (ARTIFICIAL TREES) SPACE REFLECTORS