Presidential nominations Last time: Candidate emergence Presidential nomination process

Candidate emergence Where do candidates come from and what role do party organizations play in finding them? Theory of Progressive Ambition: –Modern career path: local office, state office, national/statewide office –When to run for “higher” office? Expected utility calculation –Run for higher office (h) if EU H > EU L + (risk premium) and EU H > 0 where EU H = P H *U H – C H and EU L = P L *U L – C L What affects benefits? probabilities? costs?

Costs Fixed costs; Barriers to entry and exit –“fixed” capital, such as job-specific expertise that can’t be sold or fully used in the next job; the Mother/Daughter game as an exit “solution” Variable costs –identifying likely supporters and getting out the vote; cost-minimizing incentives to keep turnout low & free-riding on the ticket –fundraising: identifying likely supporters and getting them to contribute; cost-minimizing incentives: expertise and access money

Local parties and recruitment primary selection of party nominees for partisan office; –party role is greatest when electoral prospects are worst –some states allow party endorsements –low-turnout elections, particularly in midterms or odd years –most candidates are “self-starters” congressional challengers typically self-finance a large share of their own campaigns Republicans traditionally have been better at top-down strategies of recruitment, training party activists provide the main pool of self-starting candidates

Presidential nominations Key event: McGovern-Fraser Commission report led to change in nominations procedures –up to 1968, primaries were not central to winning nomination –since 1972, primaries are central –Dems use proportional representation scheme at 2+ levels in each primary state with a high threshold; Repub rules vary –Dems reserve ~20 pct of delegates for “Super- Delegates

Winning the nomination Momentum: early, unexpected success can generate accelerating support –fundraising requires investor confidence –building an organization requires committed activists Timing of primaries matters –dark horse candidates cannot capitalize on momentum easily if subsequent contests are closely bunched behind Iowa and NH –but if contests are too stretched out, momentum can peter out Fundraising: matching funds or opt out?