Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006 Forward and inverse modelling of atmospheric trace gas at LSCE P. Bousquet, I. Pison, P. Peylin, P. Ciais, D. Hauglustaine, S. Szopa Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE)

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006 LMDZ-INCA Full model LMDZ-INCA CH4+MCF SACS Simplified Atm. Chemistry System CHIMERE Regional model Forward modelling Inverse modelling Traditional inversion Variational inversion Atmospheric chemistry modelling at LSCE

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006 Hauglustaine et al., JGR, 2004 Standard horizontal resolution 3.75  x2.5  Standard vertical resolution: 19 hybrid  -p levels (surface to 35 km). Dynamic : large scale advection of tracers: LMDz Chemistry : standard version for tropospheric ozone calculation including NMHCs (90 species – 300 reactions); aerosols (mineral, sea-salt, BC, OC, sulfur): INCA Biogenic Emissions from the ORCHIDEE dynamical vegetation model Anthropogenic emissions from either Edgar/IIASA/RETRO Biomass burning from van der Werf 2006 The general circulation model: LMDz-INCA

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006 LMDz-INCA General Circulation Model. INCA: tropospheric gaz phase chemistry, aerosols and long-lived greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O). 3.75° x 2.5°. ORCHIDEE dynamical vegetation model used to derive surface properties, vegetation distribution, carbon cycle, biogenic and soil emissions. 40km x 40km. Real-time chemical weather based on operational meteorology OR reanalysis (ERA40) OR free running GCM. Chimère regional air quality model nested in LMDz-INCA global model. 50km X 50km. 1/ Global to regional scale modeling platform 3/ 2030 simulation PHOTOCOMP intercomparison (IPCC AR4-ACCENT) of future atmospheric composition. 25 state-of-the-art global chemistry transport models. 3 different scenarios for future surface emissions. Regional model Chimère constrained by LMDz-INCA : relative impact of emissions versus long-range transport of pollution on air quality in Europe. 2/ long-term simulation RETRO EU project ( ) : reanalysis of the tropospheric chemical composition over the past 40 years. Best available meteorology (ERA40), new monthly resolved anthropogenic and biomass burning surface emissions, stratospheric ozone climatologies. Multimodel approach: 2 GCMs with chemistry and 3 CTMs.

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep / LMDz-INCA global chemical weather platform 3 day (NCEP) and 5 day (ECMWF) forecasts for global tropospheric chemistry, aerosols and long-lived greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O)

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep / Biomass burning emissions based on MODIS fires MODIS fire pixels over last 3 days Siberian fires 31 Aug 2006

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep / Vegetation and carbon real-time platform Net Primary Production, soil water content, Leaf Area Index, PAR, … NPP gC/m 2 /day

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006 Isoprene 1/ Spatial and seasonal variations of BVOC emissions BVOC emissions and NO soil emissions derived from the ORCHIDEE vegetation modelMonoterpenes kgC/m 2 /s January July GEIAORCHIDEE Lathière et al., ACP, 2006

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep / global simulation : surface emissions Anthropogenic Emissions: New global inventories for NO x, CO, and (detailed) NMVOC on a 0.5° 0.5° and monthly time resolution from 1960 to TEAM methodology (Pulles et al. 2006). Processed by M. Schulz (MPI Met).

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep / global simulation : ozone evolution Max Min

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep /Implication for Europe : regional model Szopa et al., GRL, 2006 Current LegislationMax. Feasible ReductionIPCC SRES A2 Surface ozone change (ppb) averaged over July (2030-Present)

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006 Traditional inversion Large TRANSCOM regions Several processes on each period MCF optimisation to get OH CH4 optimisation using optimized OH over Monthly emissions & observations Use of 13 CH4 observations Iterative procedure to calculate response functions 18 different inversions varying set-up

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006 Bousquet et al., 2005, 2006 Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches Philippe Bousquet 13 Décembre 2006 Optimisation des sources et puits de méthane Emissions Prior Poste OH Prior Poste Inversion méthyl- chloroforme (CH 3 CCl 3 ) Inversion méthane

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006 Consistent with top-down estimates ? Bousquet et al., ACP, 2005

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006

Geographical Breakdown

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006 / EEA Geographical Europe Source Breakdown

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006 And the plant emissions ? Scenario with plant emissions gives the same atmospheric answer at surface station but with a 30% reduction in emissions (100 TgCH4/yr) IAV is “borrowed” mostly to anthropogenic emissions leaving natural emissions IAV almost unchanged at least from the early 1990s

Hauglustaine et al., IGAC, 19 Sep 2006 Planned work in HYMN : WP5 : Forward simulations with full LMDZ-INCA model period ? 2-3 years ? Common initial state ? Common emissions ? Different scenarios ? What about OH ? Diagnostics ? Seasonal, synoptic, IAV ? WP6 : Inverse modelling multi-species variational approach Use of traditional inversions ? H2 inversion with traditional approach