Emergent Phenomena & Human Social Systems NIL KILICAY

Research Interest I am a PhD candidate and this is my second semester in SESL. I am a PhD candidate and this is my second semester in SESL. My research interest is on complex human social systems and how emergent behavior rises from such systems My research interest is on complex human social systems and how emergent behavior rises from such systems I am interested in agent-based modeling and artificial life theories as tools to understand and predict emergent phenomena I am interested in agent-based modeling and artificial life theories as tools to understand and predict emergent phenomena The following slides give brief information about these concepts and the application areas which I focus on The following slides give brief information about these concepts and the application areas which I focus on

Emergent Phenomena Emergence is the process of deriving some new and coherent structures, patterns and properties in a complex system Emergence is the process of deriving some new and coherent structures, patterns and properties in a complex system They occur due to collective behavior and interactions between the elements of the system They occur due to collective behavior and interactions between the elements of the system They are most often counterintuitive; they are observable at a macro-level even though they are generated by micro-level elements They are most often counterintuitive; they are observable at a macro-level even though they are generated by micro-level elements Some simple examples: Audience applause, crowd panic in emergencies, ants carrying food, etc. Some simple examples: Audience applause, crowd panic in emergencies, ants carrying food, etc.

Emergent Phenomena Emergent behavior in human social systems differ from non-human social systems( such as collection of ants) by the ability to reason Emergent behavior in human social systems differ from non-human social systems( such as collection of ants) by the ability to reason Individual behavior exhibits memory, learning, adaptation and reasoning Individual behavior exhibits memory, learning, adaptation and reasoning Therefore, human social systems exhibit emergent behavior as well as react to emergent behavior (second order emergence) Therefore, human social systems exhibit emergent behavior as well as react to emergent behavior (second order emergence) Organized emergent behavior rise from the interaction of individuals without any central control Organized emergent behavior rise from the interaction of individuals without any central control

Artificial Life and Agent-Based Societies Attempts to understand high-level behavior from basic low-level units interacting according to very simple rules Attempts to understand high-level behavior from basic low-level units interacting according to very simple rules Agent-based simulation aims to represent individuals (or groups) in a given system. Agent-based simulation aims to represent individuals (or groups) in a given system. Agents have a set of characteristics. For example an agent representing a human could have attributes such as age, job, title, etc. Agents have a set of characteristics. For example an agent representing a human could have attributes such as age, job, title, etc. Agents are autonomous: sense, retrieve information, negotiate, perform Agents are autonomous: sense, retrieve information, negotiate, perform Agents have intelligence: Preferences, reasoning, learning/adapting Agents have intelligence: Preferences, reasoning, learning/adapting Agents can be mobile or static Agents can be mobile or static

Organizations of agents Animate agents Data Artificial world Observer Inanimate agents If Then Else Courtesy of Lars-Erik Cederman

Designing Agent Based Model Defining the objective Type of Agents Interaction among agents Observational studies Agent Qualitative & Quantitative studies Interaction with The environment Observational studies Programming Recording Mechanism Running for n times Results Checked after each run Common Characteristics Emergent Phenomenon

Emergent Phenomenon Agent Based Model Plot graphs to aid the objective Effect of emergent Phenomenon on agents Correlate Checking correlations With re-runs Build a strategy Adopted from Predicting the unpredictable: through agent based modeling

Application Areas Agent based modeling is used in many domains including simulation of insect behavior, economics, anthropology. Agent based modeling is used in many domains including simulation of insect behavior, economics, anthropology. Following are some of the application areas related to engineering management: Following are some of the application areas related to engineering management: Flow management: Fire escape( evacuation), traffic, supermarket Flow management: Fire escape( evacuation), traffic, supermarket Markets: stock market, electronic auctions, ISP market Markets: stock market, electronic auctions, ISP market Organizations: operational risk, organizational design Organizations: operational risk, organizational design Diffusion: diffusion of innovation Diffusion: diffusion of innovation

Home Land Security Policy makers and intelligence agencies need to think through the consequences of their decisions in various situations when they are preparing for potential attacks Policy makers and intelligence agencies need to think through the consequences of their decisions in various situations when they are preparing for potential attacks Agent-based modeling aids analysts and decision makers to analyze what-if scenarios and find answers from the perspective of people, groups, organizations, cities and nations Agent-based modeling aids analysts and decision makers to analyze what-if scenarios and find answers from the perspective of people, groups, organizations, cities and nations Following slide provides a multi-agent model of biological attacks and their impact on a city. The agent- based model is being developed to aid analysts and policy makers in their planning responses. Following slide provides a multi-agent model of biological attacks and their impact on a city. The agent- based model is being developed to aid analysts and policy makers in their planning responses.

Exposed Contracts Disease Reports Move Spatially Move Information Agent Location, Demographic & Social Network Characteristics Disease Model Agent Model Daily Community Level Reports Shared BSS Database NEDSS Compliant Geographic Topology Model Environmental Lethality Manifests Symptoms detectionprivacy What If Scenario Impact Analysis Communication Technology Model BIOWAR DESIGN Courtesy of K. Carley, A. Yahja, B. Kaminsky

Home Land Security Agent-based modeling is used as a tool for understanding the emergent behavior of groups, organizations and cities to various terrorist attacks Agent-based modeling is used as a tool for understanding the emergent behavior of groups, organizations and cities to various terrorist attacks Recent research related to home land security issues are about terrorist networks, disease spread in cases of biological attacks, attacks to communication networks, attacks to energy plants Recent research related to home land security issues are about terrorist networks, disease spread in cases of biological attacks, attacks to communication networks, attacks to energy plants I aim to focus on these application areas and bring together the artificial life and agent-based aspects with the management and social science aspects in order to develop a decision making aid tool I aim to focus on these application areas and bring together the artificial life and agent-based aspects with the management and social science aspects in order to develop a decision making aid tool