Generating scenarios of salmon recovery: what are the mechanisms linking climate variability to marine survival? E. Logerwell 1, N. Mantua 2, P. Lawson.

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Generating scenarios of salmon recovery: what are the mechanisms linking climate variability to marine survival? E. Logerwell 1, N. Mantua 2, P. Lawson 3, R. Francis 4 and V. Agostini 4 1 Alaska Fisheries Science Center 2 Univ. Washington School of Marine Affairs/Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean 3 Northwest Fisheries Science Center 4 Univ. Washington School of Aquatic and Fisheries Science

Salmon and Climate Mantua, et al Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index above average below average

Oregon Production Index (OPI) Coho Salmon

OPI Coho Survival

Previous studies link coho survival to... Upwelling (Nickelson, 1986) Sea surface temperature (Cole, 2000) Spring transition (Ryding & Skalski, 1999) Spring and winter ocean conditions (Koslow, et al. in press)

Select variables that represent local nearshore conditions GAM to understand effects of ocean processes on survival Examine linkages between model variables and climate indices Our study of coho survival

Conceptual model

Winter (Jan-Mar) before smolt migration Spring (April-June) Winter (Jan-Mar) after smolt migration Transition

GAM Results

Climate linkages Indices –NPI (Aleutian Low) –PDO –ENSO October-March

NPI (Aleutian Low) Spring upwelling Spring transition Winter SST (after) Winter SST (before)

PDO Winter SST (after) Spring upwelling Spring transition Winter SST (before)

ENSO Winter SST (after) Spring upwelling Spring transition Winter SST (before)

How might recovery scenarios affect salmon? Life stage? –marine survival Habitat characteristics? –winter SST, spring transition, spring upwelling Forecasts? –climate linkages between NPI, PDO and pre- smolt winter SST

Uncertainty? Biological dimension of ocean habitat –Predators? –Prey? Climate forecasts –Natural variability (El Niño, PDO, other) –Anthropogenic change

Alternative scenarios? Can we make a similar forecast for ocean variables (such as SST) or climate variables (such as NPI)?

Beth Sinclair and Tonya Zepplin

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