Scenario Planning Customization for the Delmarva Freight Plan Forget the Box: 15 th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Atlantic.

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Presentation transcript:

Scenario Planning Customization for the Delmarva Freight Plan Forget the Box: 15 th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Atlantic City, NJ May 17-21, 2015

2011 Recent Trends

Delmarva Freight PlanVA DE MD NJ PA

Scenario Planning Process Background Planning Scenario Development System PerspectivesCorridor PerspectivesAction Plan

Background Planning ConcernsOpportunities

Background Planning External Forces…

Scenario Development Six Scenarios Baseline – 2010 Existing Baseline – 2040 Future Constraint – w/ Trendline Growth Constraint – w/ Accelerated Growth Enhancement – w/ Trendline Growth Enhancement – w/ Accelerated Growth

Economic Influence Trendline Growth Census WILMAPCO Accelerated Growth Targeted industries Market shifts

Infrastructure Influence Multimodal Constraint Rail constraints Barge constraints Truck reliance Multimodal Enhancement Rail improvements Bridge upgrades Intermodal access

Detailing the Scenarios Commodity Flow Model

Detailing the Scenarios Accelerated Growth x 120% Background x 140% Targeted Industries x 105% Market Shifts x Model Productivity Factors Growth Levels & Locations 8% add’l pop & employ vs. Trendline 14% add’l freight vs. Trendline

Detailing the Scenarios Delaware City Refinery –Grow oil to TAZ Indian River Power Plant –Delete coal to TAZ Panama Canal Expansion –Explore & isolate FAF import/exports –Grow select flows by 20% (10M tons) Trip Table Revisions

Detailing the Scenarios Highway Projects –Modify highway model network Rail Bridge Constraints –Delete rail network links River Constraints –Delete river network links –Adjust trip table and O-D pairings Network Revisions

Detailing the Scenarios Rail Service or Access –Modify rail network link speeds Highway/Rail Grade Separation –Modify highway network link speeds Intermodal Operations –Add new transportation logistics node –Adjust model weighting factors Other Factors

Interpreting the Scenarios System Perspectives Example: Tons by Mode by Scenario Impact of accelerated growth on truck levels

Interpreting the Scenarios Corridor Perspectives Example: Truck VHT by LOS Impact of truck vs. barge traffic to Salisbury

Interpreting the Scenarios Action Plan Example: Scenario Influence as part of project screening & prioritization

Closing Thoughts Scenario Planners must… Engage stakeholders Accept uncertainty Beware of technical limbo Scenario Planning will… Support regional perspectives Help to inform decision-making Serve as a planning catalyst

Questions? Scott Thompson-Graves Mike DuRoss Dan Blevins Chad D. Reese