1. Economic Development Research Group, Inc.
Using Public and Private Data Sources to Assess Supply Chain Implications of Transportation Systems
Chandler Duncan
Derek Cutler
Economic Development Research Group, Inc.
17 May 2017

2. Background
In 2011 ASCE Asked the Question “What happens to our global competitiveness when US transportation conditions deteriorate?
TIGER and FAST Lane Grants have invited models to demonstrate national significance and economic role of transportation infrastructure
Today’s policy environment re-arranges the pieces on the board by introducing policy questions that change many of the assumptions about what transportation systems do and why.

3. Models for Uncertain Times
All Planning Models involve Economic Forecasts
Forecasts have typically been static in assumptions about global economy
Focus has been on generation, distribution, assignment and mode-split methods
Scenarios have held economic conditions constant
Enabling isolation of effects of particular infrastructure changes
Created stable modeling environment for travel models to “grow up”
What has changed?
Economic Models now Can Account for
Uncertainty in New ways
The benefits and ROI of projects depends
heavily on how many users there will be
No longer simply a question of “traffic-worthiness”
Policy Makers ask harder economic questions:
What if there are major changes in trans-border trade agreements?
What if fewer migrant workers are residing in my region or state?
How can I plan around forecasts when so many things could change?

4. What if it happened….
A trade deal has been re-negotiated such that Mexico now buys its grain from South America instead of the United States
The Governor, Secretary, Board of Transportation, MPO board, Stakeholders want to know….
How much will this affect our traffic forecasts?
Will this change needs for highway improvements we currently have planned?
Will this change our investment priorities?

5. The Affected Transportation Market
Where in will this change in commodity markets be most experienced?
What states or regions will have enough impact to affect transportation needs?
Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

6. Key Producers of Exports, and Top Ports of Exit
What major freight facilities or gateways will the most affected by changes in how and where this commodity is traded?
Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

7. Who Else is Buying US Grains?
Foreign Destination of US Grain Exports
Country
Kilotons
Japan
17,907
Mexico
17,344
China
11,260
Republic of Korea
6,747
Remainder of South America
5,825
Colombia
5,571
Remainder of South-Eastern Asia
5,488
Remainder of Central America
5,289
Northern Africa
4,634
Canada
2,945
Where will the Grain go Now?
10% Goes to other domestic US Markets
70% goes to Asia
20% is not produced (other commodities produced instead)
Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

8. Shipping to Asia Vs. Shipping to Mexico
Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

9. From Mexico-serving Ports to Asia-serving Ports
Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

10. Affected Highway Networks
Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

11. Where Traffic Volumes will Change
Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

12. Re-Assignment and Congestion
Less reliance on congested I-35 in Texas
Significantly higher dependence on access to Seattle and Congested California Ports
Texas Congested Ports still utilized
Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

13. Practical Application of Economic Modeling
Passenger Trip Gen
Passenger Mode Choice
Distribution
Assignment
Truck Trip Gen
TREDPLAN: Economic & Trade Scenario Variablity
Re-Allocation to TAZ System
Net New Jobs & Housing
TREDIS: Regional Economic Benefits & Impacts
Loaded Networks & Congested Skims (Base Vs. Build)
Grant Application BCA’s
Prioritization Scores
Scenario Comparisons
Moda/Corridor Dependency Analysis
Long Range Plan/Investment Needs

14. Better Decisions Why Model this?
Any transportation benefits or BCA’s reliant on travel time, VMT, reliability or congestion will change
This will affect prioritization as well as overall investment needs
Statewide and MPO models equipped with economic scenarios will be increasingly important.

15. Thank You! Chandler Duncan EDR Group (617) 338-6775 x 203