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U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis International Energy Outlook 2014 For Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy September 22, 2014 | Washington, D.C. By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration

Key takeaways IEO 2014 examines long-term global petroleum and other liquid fuels markets in this shortened IEO release IEO2015 will return to full version Three price scenarios examine a range of potential interactions of supply, demand, and prices in world liquids markets The potential for tight/shale oil outside of the United States could add 3MMb/d by 2025 EIA’s projection of Mexican oil production has risen in light of recent legislative changes Columbia University IEO2014 September 22,

Results from the IEO2014 Reference case World petroleum and other liquid fuels use increases by 38% between 2010 and 2040, all in the non-OECD Developing Asia (including China and India) and the Middle East account for 85% of the increase Increased demand requires 33 MMbbl/d of additional liquid fuels supplies to reach 119 MMb/d by 2040 –OPEC crude and lease condensate increases by 14 MMbbl/d –Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate increases by 10 MMbbl/d Other liquid supplies (from NGPL, biofuels, CTL, GTL, and refinery gain) grow in importance, supplying 17% of total liquids production by 2040 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22,

The IEO2014 uses the same price paths as the AEO2014 North Sea Brent crude oil spot price 2012 dollars per barrel Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, projections history 2012 High Oil Price Reference Low Oil Price

All of the growth in liquid fuels consumption occurs in the emerging non-OECD nations petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption, million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, projectionshistory 2010 OECD Non-OECD

Non-OECD Asia and the Middle East account for 85% of the world’s growth in liquids consumption over the projection non-OECD petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption, Reference case, million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, projections history

China, India, and the Middle East lead liquids demand growth liquid fuels consumption, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, select OECDselect non-OECD

China’s use of liquid fuels exceeds the United States by 2035 liquid fuels consumption in China and the United States, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, projections history 2010 United States China

Middle East use of liquids in the electric power sector declines, but still accounts for 12% of total consumption in 2040 Middle East liquid fuels consumption by end-use sector million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, Transportation Industrial Electric Power Other

Supply composition changes more than demand across cases liquids consumption and production in three price cases, 2040 million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, Other Liquids Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate OPEC crude and lease condensate

Over the projection, OPEC crude and lease condensate suppliers produce an additional 14 MMbbl/d petroleum and other liquid fuels production, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, projectionshistory

Future growth in OPEC crude and lease condensate production is centered in the Middle East OPEC crude and lease condensate production by region, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22,

Most significant contributors to non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production: Canada, Brazil, U.S., Kazakhstan, Russia non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22,

We are cautiously optimistic in our revised Mexican liquids production outlook given the legislative changes underway Mexican liquid fuels production, IEO2014 and IEO2013 million barrels per day Source: EIA, IEO2014 and IEO2013 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22,

NGPL and biofuels account for most of the other liquid fuels world production of selected other liquid fuels, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22,

EIA Reference scenario shows world tight oil production increasing to almost 8 million b/d in 2025 tight oil production million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 and International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, projectionshistory 2012 U.S. (AEO2014 & IEO2014 Reference case) World (IEO2014 Reference case)

Tight oil production will spread to nations outside of the United States and Canada over the projection tight oil production, Reference case million barrels per day Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, MMbbl/d in MMbbl/d in 2014 (STEO) AEO2014 High Resource case 5.0 MMbbl/d in 2015 (STEO)

While the outlook for total liquids production is similar with IEA and OPEC, there are different perspectives on sources of supply petroleum and other liquid fuels production million barrels per day Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case; IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 Current Policies scenario; OPEC World Oil Outlook 2013 Reference case Columbia University IEO2014 September 22,

Areas of uncertainty in the outlook China’s energy demand growth; particularly in transportation –EIA is working with MIT and others to upgrade the structural and macroeconomic determinates of transportation demand in all regions for IEO2015 Increasing global trade of natural gas and HGL in addition to oil –EIA is integrating the representation of oil and natural gas supply and other hydrocarbons Global development of tight oil and shale gas resources –EIA is gathering geology and production information, and conducting outreach Impact of geopolitical tensions on energy supply –EIA exploring options for representing these uncertainties in the outlook Columbia University IEO2014 September 22,

For more information Columbia University IEO2014 September 22, U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | Annual Energy Outlook | Short-Term Energy Outlook | International Energy Outlook | Monthly Energy Review | Today in Energy | State Energy Portal | Drilling Productivity Report |