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Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus for Flame 2012 April 17, 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus for Flame 2012 April 17, 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus for Flame 2012 April 17, 2012 | Amsterdam, The Netherlands by Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator Current and Projected Supply and Demand Conditions

2 U.S. natural gas storage has reached an unprecedented high for this time of year Flame - The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus, Howard Gruenspecht, April 17, 2012 2 Billion Cubic Meters Billion Cubic Feet

3 U.S. natural gas spot prices are very low compared to prices in other regions and oil prices Flame - The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus, Howard Gruenspecht, April 17, 2012 Sources: EIA, Bloomberg, as of April 10, 2012 3

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8 Foreign joint venture investment in U.S. shale gas and tight oil plays 8 ForeignDomesticAmount PartnerCountryPartnerShale Play($B)Year British PetroleumUKChesapeakeWoodford1.702008 British GasUKEXCOMarcellus0.952009 StatoilHydroNorwayChesapeakeMarcellus3.382009 RelianceIndiaPioneerEagle Ford1.362010 RelianceIndiaAtlasMarcellus1.702010 RelianceIndiaCarrizoMarcellus0.392010 TotalFranceChesapeakeBarnett2.252010 CNOOCChinaChesapeakeNiobrara0.572010 British GasUKEXCOHaynesville1.302010 MitsuiJapanAnadarkoMarcellus1.402010 CNOOCChinaChesapeakeEagle Ford1.082011 KNOCKoreaAnadarkoEagle Ford1.552011 MarubeniJapanMarathonNiobrara0.272011 MitsuiJapanSM EnergyEagle Ford0.682011 GAILIndiaCarrizoEagle Ford0.102011 TotalFranceChesapeake/EnerVestUtica2.302012 SinopecChinaDevonTMS, Niobrara,Utica2.202012 MarubeniJapanHunt OilEagle Ford1.302012 Total……24.82 Source: EIA, from trade press reports as of 27 February 2012 Flame - The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus, Howard Gruenspecht, April 17, 2012

9 U.S. dry gas resources trillion cubic feet *Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in previously published documentation. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2,214 273 482 1,460 Unproved shale gas Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and offshore) Proved reserves (all types and locations) Flame - The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus, Howard Gruenspecht, April 17, 2012 AEO Edition Technically recoverable natural gas resources reflect updated assessments 9

10 The average delivered price of coal to electricity generators varies widely across U.S. regions – transport costs are a key reason Flame - The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus, Howard Gruenspecht, April 17, 2012 $1.91 $1.83 $1.46 $1.83 $1.49 $1.57 $1.93 1.77 $1.51 $2.45 $2.48 $3.65 $4.46 $3.40 $1.75 $2.02 $2.96 $3.41 $2.01 $2.91 N/A National AverageMinimumMaximum $2.25$1.46$4.46 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release 2010 Delivered coal prices, $ per million Btu 10

11 Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed; electric power and industrial use drives much of the future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet per year *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release ProjectionsHistory Industrial* Electric power Commercial Residential Transportation** 34% 18% 13% 32% 3% 31% 21% 13% 33% 3% Flame - The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus, Howard Gruenspecht, April 17, 2012 11

12 18% 16% Electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and natural gas electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release 2010 24% 20% 45% 10% 1% 39% 27% 1% Nuclear Oil and other liquids Natural gas Coal Renewables Flame - The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus, Howard Gruenspecht, April 17, 2012 12

13 2% Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. natural gas production sources U.S. dry gas production trillion cubic feet per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release Non-associated offshore ProjectionsHistory Associated with oil Coalbed methane Non-associated onshore Shale gas 2010 10% 7% 9% 7% 21% 23% 9% 7% 49% Alaska 1% Tight gas 26% 21% Flame - The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus, Howard Gruenspecht, April 17, 2012 13

14 Oil to natural gas price ratio remains high over the projection Flame - The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus, Howard Gruenspecht, April 17, 2012 ratio of oil price to natural gas price Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference Case HistoryProjections2009 Oil and natural gas prices 2010 dollars per million Btu HistoryProjections2009 14

15 Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release ProjectionsHistory 2010 Consumption Domestic supply Flame - The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus, Howard Gruenspecht, April 17, 2012 Net imports 15

16 For more information 16 U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.govwww.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steowww.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeowww.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieowww.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/merwww.eia.gov/mer EIA Information Center InfoCtr@eia.gov Our average response time is within three business days. (202) 586-8800 24-hour automated information line about EIA and frequently asked questions. Flame - The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus, Howard Gruenspecht, April 17, 2012


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