Progress 8: A recap

The next few years…. Wolf Review implemented 2014 First entry only counted for performance tables 2015 Some schools opt for Progress 8 2016 1-8 Scale used for Attainment 8 / Progress 8 New KS2 assessments (September 2016 Y7) 2017 First reformed GCSEs taken (English and mathematics) 1-9 Scale used for new GCSEs 2018 More reformed GCSEs Let alone national curriculum changes, 2021 Pupils with new KS2 assessment from 2016 are now Y11

What was wrong with levels of progress and the current best 8? Narrow focus Crudeness of whole levels as starting point Proxy for attainment Distorting effect of equivalences Concentrated only on English and mathematics Function of dubious KS2 results/teacher assessment

Correlation between 5A*-CEM and 3+LP

Attainment 8 Helpful to think of four “buckets” English Mathematics Ebacc Open (or “Other High Value”) Point scores in each bucket, using 1 to 8 scale 1 to 8 scale being reintroduced. Another excellent example of standing still long enough in education you are back where you started.

Maths bucket Any Ebacc maths qualification viz: Maths GCSE Maths AS Maths level 1/2 certificates (iGCSE) NOT – free standing maths qualifications (can go into “other” bucket) Maths is doubled En/ma doubled so they represent 40% of the measure, as in 5A*C at the moment. Could argue that it is effectively Attainment/Progress 10 (also 10 is easier for secretaries of state to divide by)

English bucket English GCSE English Language GCSE English Literature GCSE English AS English level 1/2 certificates (iGCSE) English is doubled. English Language is doubled provided Eng Lit is taken. Best grade of En Lang and Eng Lit counts Q: Is it doubled if AS Eng Lang is taken without Lit?? I think the answer is yes

Ebacc bucket Any three* from: Core science, additional science Double science Separate sciences (1, 2 or 3)** Modern/ancient languages History Geography Computer Science*** NOT - English * mindful of discounting/early entry rules ** different discounting rules from Ebacc *** not all AOs have an approved Computing qual yet

A lot more A few more No more Following P8, how many more students will be following 3 Ebacc subjects in your school? A lot more A few more No more

Open bucket Any 3 “high value” qualifications: Can use “spare” Eng/Lit here Can use spare Ebacc Can be 3 non-GCSEs Obvious policy disconnect here – only 2 non GCSE allowed at the moment. Spin is that they will now all be high value, so three allowed.

Compare your school against national for each bucket Be careful – the past is a poor predictor of the future: Many schools are likely to change entry patterns over the coming years Schools will have shadow data published (somewhere) by DfE based on 2014 results (based on validated results). This will be P8, A8 and CI. Not individual component VA (apart from maths and English, which are already in Ebacc)

How will the floor be calculated? “The minimum requirement will be set on the Progress 8 measure. This measure will be used because it takes into account each school’s intake, and so is the fairest way to identify an underperforming school. It rightly focuses attention on schools which are contributing least to the development of their pupils.” A school is below the floor if P8 < -0.5 and significantly different from 0 Wanted to include EM measure as floor but decided against because of “borderlining” and pressure on qualifications Proposed model was to look at percentage of individual pupils below a fraction of a Standard Deviation. Ruled out (too complicated and ended up with the same schools, so no advantage in the complexity Weakness will be that you will not know whether you are below the floor or not until the DfE does the calculations Note that this measure needs to be seen politically as being tough. There are around 200 schools below the floor set by %A*CEM; we can expect to see at least 200 below the floor on the new measure. We would anticipate about two thirds of schools currently below the floor to be above it on P8.

Different schools fall beneath the floor - secondary Communicating this to schools Conferences and events - Fact sheets and technical notes FFT data – each school’s entrance and achievement patterns relative to others by key stage 2 score Designed to prompt thinking Schools will get their 2014 data at the turn of the year

Should I “opt in”? 2016 – Progress 8 becomes headline indicator for all schools 2015 opt in available (probably via tables checking site) from 23 June 2014 to June 2015) Implications of opting in are: Publication (A8, P8, buckets (including GCSE/ voc in 4) Floor Inspection Three fold offer: Publication Floor Inspection Window open this summer. But nothing to lose, so why not wait. Prognostic information in RAISE

Opt in checklist Are you below the floor? Are your “buckets” full? Is progress generally good? P8 will change based on system behaviour over time. Yours may go down. Three non GCSEs are allowed in P8 Morally do you think you should be held to account by a progress measure or a threshold measure? ASCL survey- Yes 44% No 38% Undecided 18% Are you below the floor? Nothing to lose (unless you are convinced you will be above the floor this time, which is staying at 40%) Are your “buckets” full? Is progress generally good (making reference to the excellent transition matrices published by DfE, and the even more excellent materials produced by David Blow from ASCL) Are you prepared for p8 to go down the following year as the system catches up or would it be better to wait? Are you sticking to three non GCSE qualifications, because three are allowed in p8 whereas only two are allowed at the moment? Morally do you think you should be held to account by a progress measure or a threshold measure?

Is it a good thing? Not as bad as 5ACEM Recognises progress Recognises curriculum breadth Inclusive Floor is a function of entry But: Doesn’t resonate with employers or parents Has all the negative characteristics of VA measures: Outliers Arcane Uncertainty until results are published PK – Progress 8 is the “least bad” measure so far Not designed to resonate with employers really, or indeed parents. This was the main weakness with 5A*CEM – trying to be a single, defining measure for all audeinces.

Is it fair? Depends! It is unbiased (by definition) based on prior attainment only It is biased (ie mean VA is not zero) for: Boys PP SEN White British

Discussion Questions How likely are you to opt into Progress 8? Do you feel that you have enough information to take your decision? What changes will you be making to your curriculum in response to Progress 8? Will you need to increase the number of subjects that your students take when Progress 8 is introduced? Which system would you prefer to be judged by, Progress 8 or Levels of Progress? Do you think that each produces the same results? How will you prepare your staff for the introduction of Progress 8?

Grading discussion- see blog 1. Do you agree with the move towards a grading system of 1-9? What is your view of the suggestion that the gap between each number should be equal? 2. Do you agree that there is a severe grading issue with modern languages? If so, how urgently does it need to be addressed? 3. Why do decision makers see it as being acceptable for standards to rise at KS2 but not at KS4? 4. What is your view of the way in which the reform of curriculum, grading and accountability has been organised? Will it produce a better system?

Whilst the information provided at this event was correct to the best of the knowledge of the presenters and organisers, neither ASCL nor Professional Development can accept liability if at a later date this should prove not to be the case. Nor can they be held responsible for any errors or any consequences resulting from its use.