The Presidential Selection Process?

New reading for Thursday E-Reserves Presidency Reading folder Bimes and Nichols, Debating the Presidency, Chapter 1 Savage, “Bush challenges hundreds of laws”

A two-stage process Nomination –Primaries: really selecting delegates –National Nominating Conventions General Election

Democratic National Convention & Republican National Convention Delegates from each state meet to vote on which candidate will be the party’s nominee for President

All about Delegate Selection Presidential Primary: –A state-sponsored election to select delegates to national nominating convention Caucus: –A meeting where any affiliated voter can come and select individuals to serve as delegates in favor of a candidate

The Presidential nomination process The Invisible Primary: going on today! Competition for: – media “frontrunner” status –elite endorsements –money

Republican nomination 2000 Bush’s money –April 1999: $6 million –July 1999: $36 million –December 1999: $70 million Closest competitor: McCain –July 1999: $6 million –December 1999: $15 million

& Endorsements… Bush: –Michigan Gov. John Engler (R) –Oklahoma Gov. Frank A. Keating –Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush (R) –Conn. Gov. John G. Rowland (R –Mass. Gov. Argeo Paul Cellucci –Colo. Gov. Bill Owens (R) –Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R) –Montana Gov. Marc Racicot (R) –R.I. Gov. Lincoln C. Almond –La. Gov. M.J. "Mike" Foster (R) –Pa. Gov. Tom Ridge (R) –Kan. Gov. Bill Graves (R) –Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore II –N.Y. Gov. George E. Pataki –Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt (R) –Wyo. Gov. Jim Geringer (R) –Wis. Gov. Tommy Thompson –Neb. Gov. Mike Johanns (R) –Nev. Gov. Kenny Guinn (R) –Ohio Gov. Robert A Taft II (R) –Ill. Gov. George H. Ryan (R) –Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R) –Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) –Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) –Ariz. Gov. Jane Hull (R) –W.Va. Gov. Cecil H. Underwood –N.J. Gov. Christine Todd Whitman Alexander –Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) –Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) –Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R) Forbes –NM Governor Gary Johnson Hatch –UT Gov. Mike Levitt Quayle –Miss. Gov. Fordice

Nominations The Invisible Primary The Media’s Expectations Game

Nominations The Invisible Primary Expectations The importance of Iowa and New Hampshire

A representative beginning? From the 2000 Census IowaNew Hampshire National average Population 2,929,324 (30 th ) 1,235,786 (41 st ) 281,421,906 % White Median income % Farm employmt

A representative beginning? From the 2000 Census IowaNew Hampshire National average Population % White 93.9%96%75.1% Median income % Farm employmt

A representative beginning? From the 2000 Census IowaNew Hampshire National average Population % White Median income $39,469$49,467$41,994 % Farm employmt

A representative beginning? From the 2000 Census IowaNew Hampshire National average Population % White Median income % Farm employmt 4.4%.9%1.9%

Nominations The Invisible Primary Expectations The importance of Iowa and New Hampshire Frontloading

Date2004 PRIMARIES/caucuses1996 Jan wk2DC Jan wk3IA Jan wk4NHAK, HI Feb wk1AZ, DE, MO, SC, NMLA Feb wk2MI, WA, ME VA, TN, DCIA Feb wk3MI, IDNH Feb wk4DE, AZ, ND, SD Mar wk1CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT

Any good things about New Hampshire and Iowa going first? Any bad things about California going so early next year (feb. 5!)

The bandwagon effect AP delegate totals, March 17, 2004 (2,162 needed to win nomination) Kerry: 2333 Edwards: 530 Dean: 156 Clark: 73 Sharpton: 26 Kucinich: 22 Lieberman: 2 Gephardt: 2

National Party Nominating Conventions August of presidential election year Historically, delegates actually decided nominations Today, delegates (mostly) committed to candidates

General Election Rules FECA

Federal Election Campaign Act In general: Bans large donations by individuals –Individuals can only give $2000 to a candidate in the primary, and $2000 in the general election Primary elections: creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections –All funds candidates raise in small amounts ($250 or less) are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of election year General election: Public financing for presidential campaigns (with limits on campaign spending)

General Election Rules FECA The Electoral College

Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress

Electoral College Each state gets number of electors equal to Reps + Senators Electors are NOT Reps or Senators themselves Electors chosen by the parties + campaigns Electors meet in own states Cast two votes, one for president, one for vice president Person with majority of electoral votes becomes president If no majority, House of Representatives (one vote per state delegation) selects president from among top three Electoral College vote-getters

Strategic Consequences of the Electoral College?

Strategic consequences of the Electoral College Candidates focus on big states with lots of Electoral Votes Candidates focus on swing states, where money and face time might make a difference

Sure things REPUBLICAN STATES: –AL: 9, AR: 3, AK: 6, GA: 15, ID: 4, IN: 11, KS: 6, KY: 8, LA: 9, MS: 6, MT: 3, NE: 5, NC: 15, ND: 3, OK: 7, SC: 8, SD: 3, TX: 34, UT: 5, VA: 13, WY: 3. –Total: 176 DEMOCRATIC STATES –CA: 55, CT: 7, DE: 3, DC: 3, HI: 4, IL: 21, ME: 4, MD: 10, MA: 12, NJ: 15, NY: 31, RI: 4, VT: 3 –Total: 169

The purple states The West: –Arizona: 10 EV, Colorado: 9 EV, Nevada: 5 EV, –New Mexico: 5 EV, Oregon: 7 EV, Washington: 11 EV The Midwest: –Minnesota: 10 EV, Iowa: 7 EV, Missouri: 11 EV, Ohio: 20 EV, Pennsylvania: 21 EV, Michigan 17 EV –Wisconsin: 10 EV, Border states: –Tennessee: 11 EV, West Virginia: 5 EV The South: Florida: 27 EV The North: New Hampshire: 4 EV

Targeted States, 2004 StateVisitsAds? Electoral Votes Difference in two-party percent of vote OH45X202.1% IA31X70.67% PA30X212.5% WI28X100.38% FL23X275.0% MN19X103.5% MI17X 3.5% NM12X50.8% WV11X512.9% CO10X94.8% NH10X41.3% MO7117.2% NV7X52.4% NC %

The Electoral Calendar ELECTION DAY –By late evening, one candidate leads in the exit polls in enough states to win 270 Electoral Votes, and the Media declares a winner. –One candidate concedes the election, the other proclaims victory (usually)

The Electoral Calendar First Monday following First Wednesday in December: Electors meet in their state capitols and cast their formal votes for president January 6, 2009: The President of the Senate opens and counts the votes January 20, 2009: The newly elected (or re- elected) president is inaugurated

Some problems with the Electoral College? Faithless Electors? A small/big state advantage? The winner of the popular vote doesn’t always become president

What kinds of candidates are favored in this system? Are they the kind we want?