AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT Antony Goldman, Santa Cruz, March 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT Antony Goldman, Santa Cruz, March 2008

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT Historical context External environment Technology Strategic issues Emerging players

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT US oil reserves 21.8bn barrels US gas reserves trillion cubic feet Nigeria oil reserves 36.2bn bbls Nigeria gas reserves tcf Algeria oil reserves 12.3bn bbls Algeria gas reserves 161.7tcf Venezuela oil reserves80.1bn bbls Venezuela gas reserves 152.3tcf

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

OPEC/AFRICA OIL EXPORTS total of 6.3m b/d in 2006 of which: 3.3m b/d to north America 2.5m b/d to Europe 0.3m b/d to Asia Pacific

AFRICA RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT World Bank in 2006 estimates India imported 50 per cent of petroleum from Africa, principally Nigeria. China imports 25 per cent of crude oil requirement from Africa, increasing at 30 per cent a year. Imports principally from Angola, Sudan, Equatorial Guinea and Congo. Source: Africa's Silk Road World Bank 2006

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT Asia’s oil interests in Africa

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

Financing and loans ‘Soft’ power Defence co-operation Construction and infrastructure

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT

Nigeria Oil discovered in 1955 Produces 2.1m b/d Resource control issues in the Niger Delta Deepwater development – political, security New players – independents, indigenous, Asian Proposed reform agenda

AFRICA: RESOURCE COMPETITION AND CONFLICT Outlook: A more competitive market Comparative advantage/ language, history Leveraging governance issues Africa’s choice