Gas and oil and problematic Strategic resource ? The purpose in geopolitics is to understand if countries with oil and gas have the status of power ? Many countries in the north despite their status of power are under dependence Power ? Dependence ?
tools Understanding geopolitics of oil requires an analysis of Importations Exportations Management of flux (how trade is managed)
New data : importations Importations : more and more to Asian countries like India or China Now US and Europe represent 55% of oil and gas importations After the oil crisis in 1973 two factors Oil and gas market became strategic market The use of dollar raises monetary question Huge demand Few resources Less investment
Different structures Oligopolistic structures (OPEP) More controlled MNC, States, Oil No agreement Wish to built an organization from Russia Gas
Future of geopolitics Analysis from James Kunstler “ The End of oil” Europe faces issues with Saudi Arabia if a revolutionary regime is set up. Strategy of limitations to Europe Consequences: decline of Europe and raise of China or India.
The end of oil ? Risk of penury Two politics for developed countries Find an other source of energy Close management of oil and gas resources For developing countries Need the help of developed countries even if this countries are dependent
Three main poles Saudi Arabia Russia Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Venezuela
Stability with OPEP Instability among history Saudi Arabia Wants to control Europe Having the monopoly on Norway and Algeria Strategy of Putine Russia Can control US New agreements with Putine Venezuela
Challenges of oil geopol Three factors have to be taken in consideration Offer : not that much Demand : a lot especially in Asia Investment Today geopolitical challenges are different Between 2001 and 2005 producer state face issues War in Iraq Terrorism in Arabia Social issues in Venezuela Political issues in Russia and Nigeria
And risk Risk in geopolitics because Iran owns 15% of gas reserve and 12% of oil reserve. Second position after Arabia Strategic position and role But interested to get nuclear power because fears influence from US and Israel Today 3,5 millions of barrels every day. If production stops price increases to 80 $
Weak Saudi Arabia Instability from Arabia Political regime gets weaker because of Islamic networks 25% of oil resources in the world If the production stops : general crisis
New eras Guinea gulf gets increased production Estimations : 25% of total resources in the world But face political tensions High tensions in Venezuela But agreement with Russia last week New eras like Sudan and role of China here.
Strategy of MNCs ? International companies in a phase with the state policy ? International companies don’t control all resources Most of the time it depends on the State’s policy (Algeria, Libya) Exxon Shell BP Amoco Total Role in geopolitics ex: Total in Guinea and reaction from US and China
Gas Role of Russia : political utilization ? South stream Nabucco and Putine’s strategy last week Strategy about Nabucco Avoiding Russia but disagreement in EU. Germany Italy France versus Bulgaria Rumania, Turkey