This is the PCC slide library, it is not a presentation. We’ve undoubtedly missed many important topics! If you see something that should be covered, or you have a slide that’s better than what’s in this file, send it over and we’ll keep this library up to date. Contents: Part I: Intro/Greenhouse effect/ Global climate change Part II: The sea: ice/sea level rise/acidification Part III: Climate, climate change, and climate variability Part IV: Current emissions, adaptation, and mitigation Part V: Local impacts (separate.ppt file)

Part I Slides on: Intro/greenhouse effect

What have you heard? Global Warming Greenhouse Gases Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Fossil Fuels Ice Core Records Climate Change

What have you heard? Is Global Warming Fueling Katrina? How one number touched off big climate-change fight at UW Global warming could burn insurers Activists call on industry to act Jellyfish creature the answer to global warming? EXAGGERATED SCIENCE How Global Warming Research is Creating a Climate of Fear Research Links Global Warming to Wildfires In a Shift, White House Cites Global Warming as a Problem Global warming causing new evolutionary patterns Rise in wild fires a result of climate change Seattle mayors' meeting a cozy climate for business Seattle reports milestone in cutting emissions

Our Questions Today Science of Climate Change What are Greenhouse Gases? How do they cause warming? How are humans affecting the climate? Pacific Northwest Impacts Have we seen changes in 20 th century climate in the PNW? How is climate in the PNW expected to change in the future? How will this impact water resources in the PNW?

Science of Climate Change: What are Greenhouse Gases? How do they cause warming? How are humans affecting the climate? UW Climate Impacts Group

GHE#1 - natural Earth’s Natural Greenhouse Effect

GHE#2 - humans Human-caused Global Warming

GHE#3 - text The science of global warming is based on well- understood physical principles. There is NO scientific debate about this! Due to human activities, there are now 40% more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere than there were a few hundred years ago. The Earth has already warmed as the consequence of this, and scientists expect that the next 20 to 100 years the world will warm a lot more!

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases warm the planet Human activities have increased the concentration of the major greenhouse gases since Average global temperature has increased 1.3°F since Warming since the 1950s very likely (>90% chance) due to human increases in GHG Scientific Consensus on Climate Change +35% +142% +18% Figure source: IPCC

Greenhouse gases GHG Sunlight heats the earth Some of sun’s energy is reradiated from surface. GHGs absorb this energy GHGs reradiate some escaping energy back towards surface, making the temperature warmer GHG PCC slide no. 033

Most Important Greenhouse Gases Source: U.S. EPA 2005 GHGs: Water: H 2 O Carbon Dioxide: CO 2 Methane: CH 4 Source Examples: Oceans, Rivers, Plants, Soil Combustion, Respiration Wetlands, Oceans, Combustion, Animals PCC slide no. 034

Greenhouse gases and temperature 650,000 BP to present Source: IPCC, 2007PCC slide no. 006 CO 2 In 2008: 386 ppm (NOAA)

Risks of future climate change Source: IPCC 2001a Possible threats: Ecosystem change Flooding of coastal communities Spread of diseases Increase of extreme weather events

Probability of Occurrence Probability of Occurrence AVERAGE HOT AVERAGE HOT COLD Increase in the Mean Increase in the Variability More hot weather More record hot weather More hot weather More record hot weather More record cold weather More cold weather Less cold weather

CO to present Source: NOAA, 2009PCC slide no. 007

Future climate change Source: IPCC 2007PCC slide no. 008

Part II Slides on: Ice/cryosphere/sea level/acidification

More Evidence: Ice Cores Ice layers preserve information about each year Sources: NOAA, GISP2 websitesPCC slide no. 036

Sea Level Rise 1-5 meters in Bangladesh 7-8 meters in Florida PCC slide no. 037

Carbon dioxide acidifies seawater CO 2 and carbonate (which plankton use to make shells) combine in the ocean. The ocean is already more acidic than it was 50 years ago. SEM photograph of E. hux Source: Alfred-Wegener-Institut CO 2 Ocean Atmosphere “shelled-critters”

Arctic Sea Ice (in September) data from National Snow and Ice Data Center (Boulder, CO, USA) 2005 Canada U.S.A. Asia Russia Europe

Arctic Sea Ice (in September) data from National Snow and Ice Data Center (Boulder, CO, USA) million km 2 sea ice edge, where normally found

Arctic Sea Ice (in September) data from National Snow and Ice Data Center (Boulder, CO, USA) million km million km 2 sea ice edge (where normally found)

Arctic Sea Ice (in September) data from National Snow and Ice Data Center (Boulder, CO, USA) Year ‘78‘82‘86‘90‘94‘98‘02‘06 Size (million km 2 )

Melting ice sheets  Sea level rise Greenland Ice Sheet

Sea Level Rise Melting of –Greenland Ice Sheet

Sea Level Rise Melting of –Greenland Ice Sheet –Antarctic Ice Sheet

Sea Level Rise Melting of –Greenland Ice Sheet –Antarctic Ice Sheet –Glaciers and ice caps

Sea Level Rise Melting of –Greenland Ice Sheet –Antarctic Ice Sheet –Glaciers and ice caps Expansion of heated (warm) sea water

Sea Level Rise Melting of –Greenland Ice Sheet –Antarctic Ice Sheet –Glaciers and ice caps Expansion of heated (warm) sea water  C warming by ~2100  meter rise in sea level IPCC (2007)

Part III Slides on Climate Variability

“Climate is what you expect Weather is what you get” Weather: Characteristics of the atmosphere over a short period of time, usually no more than a few days. Examples: Current Temperature, Rainfall, Humidity, Solar radiation Climate: The statistics (eg. average) of weather over a long period of time. Examples: Average Temperature, Rainfall, Humidity, Solar radiation Climate Weather Source: www-k12.atmos.washington.edu/k12/grayskies/ Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Temperatures at SeaTac Airport for one year: Degrees Farenheit

Climate Change v. Climate Variability We see the sum of both Climate variability (e.g. Natural swings) Climate change (e.g. warming trend) Time (years) "climate"

Climate Variability: ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation year to year variations are often related to ENSO. Here in the northwest: El Nino = warm/dry winters. La Nina = cold/wet winters. Effects of ENSO can be seen globally The origins of ENSO and its most striking effects are farther to the south, near the equatorial Pacific. Strong El Nino year Strong La Nina year Source: Source: UW Climate Impacts Group

Climate Variability: PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation Warm PDO phase Cool PDO phase decade to decade variations are often related to the PDO. Here in the northwest, Warm PDO = warm/dry winters. Cool PDO = cold/wet winters. Again, effects are felt over a really large area. This time, the pattern looks a little bit different. Source: UW Climate Impacts Group Source: UW Climate Impacts Group

Climate Variability: Comparing ENSO and PDO In Seattle, we observe similar effects of PDO and ENSO. Even with perfect predictions of ENSO and PDO, about 70% of the region’s winter climate is unexplained (life is messy). Often we use these modern climate variations as an analog for future and past climates. Source: UW Climate Impacts Group

Part IV Current Emissions Taking Action Adaptation and Mitigation PCC slide no. 029

U.S European Union Russia 68.4 Ukraine 21.7 Poland 14.4 China 57.6 Japan 31.2 Australia 7.6 India 15.5 Kazakhstan 10.1 South Africa 8.5 Canada 14.9 Mexico 7.8 Trinidad and Tobago United Arab Emirat es Kuwait Total CO 2 emissions Between in billions of tons TIME magazine, 2001 US: 4% of world’s total population 25% of the world’s greenhouse gases China:25% of the world’s population 8.5% of the world’s greenhouse gases (since 1950)

China emission

Sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (2007) Source: U.S. EPA 2009 by gasby sector

How cars generate CO 2 Source: Murray 2005 CH O 2  CO 2 + H 2 O 6.3 lb/gal 20 lb/gal PCC slide no. 005

Why a Northwesterner needs to think differently Source: U.S. EPA 2005; Washington State 2004 U.S. GHGsWashington GHGs PCC slide no. 020

Two venues for action Vote Financially support concerned organizations Volunteer for concerned organizations - Door-to-door education - Legislative lobbying POLICY REFORM Drive less - Carpool or use transit - Walk or bicycle - Combine errands - Telecommute Drive a fuel-efficient car Reduce home energy use - CFLs - Energy Star appliances - Heat room-by-room - Minimize summer A/C Purchase GHG offsets PERSONAL GHG CUTS PCC slide no. 021

Loss of Sea Ice PCC slide no. 038Source: Arctic Council 2004

GHG emissions induced by a U.S. household Source: Union of Concerned Scientists 1999PCC slide no. 044

City of Seattle As of March 11, 2007, 418 US cities in 50 states, representing more than 60 million Americans support Kyoto after Mayor Greg Nickels of Seattle started a nationwide effort to get cities to agree to the protocol.

Slides on: Sample Conclusions

Sample summary slide for local impacts: Some impacts are near certain, others are not What we know well: Temperature will increase. Total wintertime precipitation will likely increase, but probably not as drastically. We know quite a bit about factors that strongly depend on temperature. Somewhat less about those that depend on precipitation: Snow pack, likelihood of intense precipitation events, summer water supply, snowfall in the passes, coastal flooding, winter flooding in rain dominated basins, We can only make educated guesses about the rest, since they depend on much more than just average temperature and precipitation: Invasion of exotic species, changes in ecosystem, effects on wildlife and salmon, water quality, forest productivity, forest areal extent, coastal erosion, landslides, annual streamflow volume, wind storms

Conclusions The Pacific Northwest (PNW) experiences lots of year to year variations in weather and climate, some of which can be explained by dominant patterns (PDO and ENSO) Due to global climate change we know the PNW will get warmer (3- 8 F), and winters will be wetter. We have more uncertainties about things like extreme events, and the regional details of the changes A variety of important systems are strongly effected by climate change and variability: Salmon Water resources Forests Coastal regions

For more information... IPCC Summaries for Policymakers: UW Climate Impacts Group: UW Program on Climate Change: Climate Solutions: PCC slide no. 010

The End. University of Washington Program on Climate Change PCC slide no. 030