October 2005 State of the Shopping Center Industry
The Industry in Connecticut
National Same-Store Sales Sept Sept Source: ICSC
2005 Has Been Solid So Far Average same-store sales gain of +3.8% for the fiscal year to date September’s increase of +4.0% was on trend but concealed unevenness across retailers/categories Adverse factors were Katrina, energy prices, and lack of “wear now” fashion in extended period of hot weather
Chain-Store Sales YTD 2005 Average Monthly Growth Source: ICSC
High-end Retailing Continues Strong
The Luxury Market Driven by well-heeled consumer and also by moderate income consumer Luxury bifurcated into high-end and “accessible” Examples of “accessible” retailers—Coach, Burberry, Neiman Marcus
Positive Fundamentals Principal drivers of strong retail and property performance still in place Despite September up tick due to Katrina, the unemployment rate is still a low 5.1% compared with 5.4% a year ago million new jobs year to date
Economy has generated million jobs in the last year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Positive Fundamentals
Positive Fundamentals Income Growth Incomes still growing— Disposable income increased by 5.1% in the second quarter on a year-over-year basis Employee compensation increased 7.6% Wages & salaries increased 7.4%
Positive Economic News Housing market still strong Existing home sales reached an annualized 7.29 million in August, the second highest on record Median existing house price in August up 16% year/year to $220,000 New home sales reached a record in July before retreating in August
Specialty Retailer Profit Growth 1Q04-2Q05
New Retailers are Stepping in to Fill the Gaps Established retail names still in growth mode Exciting new concepts; e.g. “Ruehl,” “Soma,” “Forth & Towne,” “Jimmy ‘Z” and “One Thousand Steps” European retail names getting a foothold; e.g. Zara, Mango, Mexx
Mergers & Acquisitions Sears/Kmart Federated/May Belk/Saks Texas Pacific & Warburg Pincus/Neiman Marcus Among the Department Store Companies:
New Mall Anchors Stepping Up Retailers lining up for mall anchor slots; e.g. discounters, sporting goods Provides an opportunity to tap into markets with no alternative greenfield locations Offers a growth channel to compensate for increasing difficulties getting permissions in outlying areas
REIT Occupancy (2Q05)
Total Returns Privately Owned Property
Total Returns REITs
Katrina’s Cost Physical damage approximately $100 billion 50% of damage to housing, 25% to businesses, 25% to infrastructure About $25 billion in lost economic activity, 80% of lost output directly in the affected Gulf region, mostly in New Orleans
Gasoline prices averaged $2.85 per gallon October 10 Prices 86 cents a gallon higher than a year ago A disproportionately harsh impact on low- income households, which spend about twice as much on energy as a percent of income as the average U.S. household Energy Prices are a Big Concern
Middle income households increasingly affected 54% of households now reducing discretionary purchases due to gasoline prices—up from 50% in early July but down slightly from 58% in mid-August 46% of households with incomes over $50,000 are reducing spending, up from 37% in July Consumers partially offsetting higher gas prices by shopping more “efficiently”—i.e., buying more on each trip ICSC Survey September 22-25
What Can We Expect for the Rest of 2005? Katrina will take from 2H05 and give back in 1H06 GDP growth of % for the second half of 2005 Reconstruction will add a half percentage point to growth in 1H06 4.0%+ growth in 1H06
And for Retail? The economic fundamentals are still sound but... Increasing stress on household balance sheets from rising energy costs and debt loads. An especially severe winter will be testing Consumer will still pay full-price for the right merchandise ICSC Research forecasts second-half non-auto sales growth of 6.7%, in line with first half 7.0%
Thank You!