Revolution Yet to Happen1 The Revolution Yet to Happen Gordon Bell & James N. Gray (from Beyond Calculation, Chapter 1) Rivier College, CS699 Professional Seminar

Revolution Yet to Happen2 Discoveries in the Past The Electron Discovery by J. J. Thompson, 1895; First Electronic Computers were built in 1940s; The Transistor was invented in 1947; First Programming Languages (ALGOL, FORTRAN, COBOL, and LISP) were designed in the late 1950s; First Operating Systems were created in the mid 1960s; First Computer Science Departments were formed in 1960s; Integrated Circuits appeared by the mid 1960s; First Microprocessors & Hand Calculator were made in 1972;

Revolution Yet to Happen3 Discoveries in the Past (continued) Computer Chips & Personal Computers appeared in the late 1970s; The IBM PC appeared in 1981; Ethernet was invented in 1973; the Internet (originally ARPANET) started in 1970s; World Wide Web appeared in

Revolution Yet to Happen4 Predictions in the Past First Description of Digital Computer by Charles Babbage, 19c.; IBM and Univac bet “that computers would become the engines to run large businesses” as “electronic brains”, 1950; In 1950, Turing believed “that by 2000 we would have computers that could not be distinguished from humans by their responses to questions”; In 1960, the founders of Artificial Intelligence believed “that thinking machines would be a reality within a decade or two”; In 1968, the founders of Software Engineering believed that this discipline would solve the software crisis within a decade In 1945, MIT Prof. Bush predicted hypertext-based library network, speech-to-printing device, head-mounted camera.

Revolution Yet to Happen5 Predictions in the Past In 1975, Digital Equipment predicted that $1M-8Mbyte- time-shared computer system would sell for $8,000 and an organizer or calculator for $100 in 1997; In 1980, Bell Labs believed that UNIX would become the world’s dominant Operating System; In 1982, Bill Gates thought that 640K of Main Memory would suffice for user Workspaces in Operating Systems; In 1984, IBM believed that “Personal Computers would not amount to anything”; In 1985, many people believed that “the Japanese Fifth Generation project would produce Intelligent Machines”.

Revolution Yet to Happen6 Some New Predictions In 2047, Computers will be one hundred thousand times more powerful than those of today; Moore’s Law: processing speeds, storage capacities, network bandwidth continue to evolve with the rate of 1.6 per year; In 2047, almost all information will be in Cyberspace; New ways to inform, entertain, and educate people; eCommerce: information systems, marketing, trade; New levels of personal services, health care, automation; Ability to communicate remotely with one another by using all our senses; (by Peter Cohrane) Computers could have the human brain capacities by 2047: on-body personal assistants (read, hear).

Revolution Yet to Happen7 Cyberspace Computer Platforms and the Content they hold (processors, memories, basic system software); Hardware and Software Interface Transducer Technology (platform-people- other physical systems connections); Networking technology.

Revolution Yet to Happen8 Tendencies Handling more complex data types: - images, video, virtual reality; Synthesis in artificially created environments: atomic structures, building, spacecraft); Analysis: recognition; “virtual villages and cities” universal form of communication through the coupling of images, music, and video with computer translation of speech; the Internet: create, manage, and consume intellectual property.

Revolution Yet to Happen9 Three Cyberspace Blocks Computer Platforms: The Computer and Transistor Revolution; Hardware and Software Cyberization Interfaces: Connecting to Physical World; Networks: A Convergence and Interoperability among All Nets.

Revolution Yet to Happen10 Future Platforms, Their Interfaces, and Supporting Networks Computer Systems follow three paths over time: - Evolution (constant or slightly lower price and increasing performance and functionality timeline; - Establishment of new lower-priced classes when cost can be reduced by factor of ten: a new class forms about every ten years; - commoditization into appliances and other devices: speech recognition, filing, printing, display are incorporated into OTHER devices (watches, talking calculators and telephones, graphical camera).

Revolution Yet to Happen11 Future Platforms, Their Interfaces, and Supporting Networks (continued) New Computer Classes; MicroSystems: Systems-on-a-Chip; Web Computers; Scalable computers replace nonscalable multiprocessor servers; Useful, self-maintaining computers vs. Users as System Manages; “Telepresence” Technology (mechanism, size & structure, purpose, professional discipline);

Revolution Yet to Happen12 Future Platforms, Their Interfaces, and Supporting Networks (continued) Computers, devices, and Appliances that understand speech; Video: Synthesis, Analysis, and Understanding; Body Nets: Interconnecting all the computers that we carry; One-Chip, fully-Networked systems: “computer disappear to become components for everything”.