Red Flag Criteria Project

A Red Flag Warning is a local, short term, temporary warning issued by the National Weather Service indicating the presence of pre-determined combinations of various weather and/or fuel conditions such as temperature, relative humidity, wind, prolonged drying, drought, etc. which can contribute to new fire starts or cause problem fire behavior on existing fires. Red Flag Warning

Remember…Red Flag Warnings are not fire danger warnings and can be issued at any Fire Danger Level…… COLLIER COUNTY, FLA — Despite a weekend of wet, cold, and blustery weather, conditions were just right for a brush fire Monday. Large portions of Southwest Florida were under a red flag fire warning for several hours …….. Improper wording may cause confusion to users who get their fire danger information from other sources…….

A Fire Weather Watch is issued to advise of conditions which could result in extensive wildland fire occurrence or extreme fire behavior, which are expected to develop in the next 12 to 48 hours, but not more than 72 hours. In cases of dry lightning, a Fire Weather Watch may be issued for the next 12 hours. Fire Weather Watch

Some examples of locally defined, pre- determined Red Flag Criteria…… The South….

Southern California……

The Texas Panhandle….

And (finally) New England and New York…….. When in Vegetative Stage I & II (pre-greenup and cured) - Spring and Fall: Winds sustained or frequent gusts above 25 mph Relative humidity at or below 30% Rainfall amounts for the previous 5 days of less than 0.25 inches When in Vegetative Stage III (green) - Summer: Winds sustained or with frequent gusts above 25 mph Relative humidity at or below 30% Rainfall amounts for the previous 8 days of less than 0.25 inches Keetch-Byram Drought Index values of 300 or greater

Its when normal, “expected” fire behavior…….. Becomes erratic, exhibits higher than normal rates of spread, flame length, and intensity, and generally presents a challenge to control forces So what is Problem Fire Behavior?

But how do we know what weather parameters will cause these challenges? Up to now, we have relied on historic parameters…. But do they actually portray reality? Hazards, risk, values, even fire climate, changes over time. Are we missing Red Flag opportunities creating safety concerns? Or are we producing false alarms? To help answer these questions, the Fire Science Working Team of the Northeast Compact has devised a Project to attempt to corroborate our existing Red Flag Criteria with the behavior of historic fires

Project Objectives: 1.Corroborate historic Red Flag days with actual fire occurrence 2. Identify “problem fire behavior” for a particular area utilizing fire analysis tools 3. If indicated, make recommendations for more applicable criteria 4. Create a methodology of the Project for local use by Compact members.

Responsibilities: The New Hampshire Forest Rangers are responsible for providing the following information: 1. Provide DRI-CEFA with a 25 year record of historic wildfire occurrence in the Manchester area in Excel or similar database format. 2. Provide DRI-CEFA with the local expertise and knowledge to create a mathematical definition of “problem fire behavior” for the prevalent fuel model(s) in the Project area, including but not limited to values of rate of spread, flame length, and intensity. 3. Provide current Red Flag Criteria in the Project area.

DRI-CEFA will complete the following under Contract with the Northeastern Forest Fire Protection Compact: 1. Build a 25 year database of relevant 1300 hour fire weather variables including state of the weather, temperature, relative humidity, 20 ft. wind speed and direction, and precipitation occurrence for the Project area in 1998 weather observation data transfer format. 2. Build a 25 year database of relevant 24 hour fire weather variables including maximum/minimum dry bulb temperatures, maximum/minimum relative humidity values, and precipitation amounts and duration for the Project area in 1998 weather observation data transfer format 3. Convert the provided 25 year record of historic wildfire occurrence into standard NIFMID file transfer protocol.

4. Create a mathematical definition of “problem fire behavior” for the prevalent fuel model(s) in the Project area based on the input and expertise of the New Hampshire Forest Rangers. 5. Create an historical summary of days within the 25 year Project time-frame that have met the existing Red Flag criteria. 6. Create a set of fire weather parameters that when modeled meet or exceed the defined problem fire behavior values. 7. Corroborate the historic Red Flag days 8. Create a methodology of the Project for future use by Compact members.

Expected Outcome: Utilize the correct local criteria for Red Flag warnings in a given area. Improve the confidence value of fire management decision making and increase firefighter safety awareness when utilizing Red Flag Watches and Warnings