Systems Thinking and Decision Making Models Mediated Modeling 1/23/07

Agenda 1/23/07 Reflections (15 min.) Paper reviews (30 min) Kellie Merrel, ANR (45 min) Break (10 min) Open Space (45 min) Causal loops (20 min) Assignments and closing (15 min)

By the end of this course, you learned: To recognize situations in which Mediated Modeling could be an appropriate tool and discuss ways to evaluate Mediated Modeling as a tool to support Decision-Making ---> 2/6 Review To describe the phases of a Mediated Modeling process in generic terms and discuss the various options available to overcome obstacles during a Mediated Modeling process ---> this week’s review To practice a real or hypothetical Mediated Modeling process on a class-wide or personal topic ---> ANR presentation and Open Space Systems thinking, qualitative and quantitative model building in a stakeholder setting to support decision- making ---> Causal loop diagrams

Reflections 1.Describe the experience objectively (CONCEPTS) 2.Analyze the experience(s) in terms of academic enhancement, personal growth and civic engagement (EXPERIENCE) 3.Articulate what you learned (SYNTHESIS) The topic of the reflection for 1/27/07 is: Reflect on the steps and the various roles/tasks required to complete a MM process.

Learning objective 2 To describe the phases of a Mediated Modeling process in generic terms and discuss the various options available to overcome obstacles during a Mediated Modeling process

Paper/Chapter review Review on 1/23: Teamwork in group model building, by Richardson and Andersen MM textbook, Chapter 4, page 59-97

MM steps Preparation - identifying stakeholders, setting the stakeholder group/stakeholder management, introductory interviews, prepare preliminary model Workshops - introduction, problem definition, qualitative model building, quantitative model building, data management, simulation, testing, conclusions Follow up - tutorial, written material, model, evaluation interview/surveys

Learning objective 3 To practice a real or hypothetical Mediated Modeling process on a class-wide or personal topic.

Ponds and Lakes in VT ANR will invite minimum 5 stakeholders; VT Federation for Lakes and Ponds, Hunters, Anglers, Trappers of VT, Realtor, legislators, Water Panel. A context for data gathering effort on shorelines. Sensitive issue: 1970’s shoreline act instituted and quickly repealed

Open Space Organize the MM teamwork: Process coaching, recording, model building, data management. Law of Two Feet: if you are not contributing to a team it is your responsibility to find (or start) a productive team.

Learning objective 4 Systems thinking, qualitative and quantitative model building in a stakeholder setting to support decision-making

What is a system? A group of interacting, interrelated, or independent components that form a complex and unified whole.

System Characteristics A system’s parts must all be present for the system to carry out its purpose optimally. A system’s parts must be arranged in a specific way for the system to carry out its purpose Systems have specific purposes within larger systems Systems maintain their stability through fluctuations and adjustments Systems have feedback.

Levels of Understanding ActionTime Orientation Way of Perceiving EVENTSReactPresentWitness PATTERNSAdaptMeasure or track events STRUCTURECreate Change FutureCausal loops diagrams & SD tools

Questions you would ask EVENTSWhat is the fastest way to react to this event now? PATTERNSWhat kinds of trends or patterns of events seem to be recurring? STRUCTUREWhat structures are in place that are causing these patterns?

Events Patterns Structure What When, where How, why

Causal diagrams Identify physical flows and flows of information in your diagrams. Add direction to your diagrams; are objects interconnected in a positive or negative manner? Identify one (or more) feedback loop or time lag.

Learning objective 1 To recognize situations in which Mediated Modeling could be an appropriate tool and discuss ways to evaluate Mediated Modeling as a tool to support Decision-Making

Paper/Chapter review Review on 1/6/07: Foreword and Chapter 1, MM textbook Chapter 2 and 3, MM textbook

Assignments 1/30 Reflections - 1 hour Causal diagram with flow directions - 2 hours Class project - 7 hours