The Collaborative Effort Between Stony Brook University and the National Weather Service, Part 1 - Previous Results, Current Status and Future Plans 

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Warren R. Snyder Science & Operations Officer WFO, Albany, New York.

Advertisements

Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.

Panel Discussion on Corporate Volunteerism Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003 Nick Keener, CCM Director, Meteorology 2009 Summer AMS Community Meeting Aug.

New York City Storm Surges: Climatology and An Analysis of the Wind and Cyclone Evolution Dr. Brian A. Colle, Katherine Rojowsky, and F. Bounaiuto School.

A Spatial Climatology of Convection in the Northeast U.S. John Murray and Brian A. Colle National Weather Service, WFO New York NY Stony Brook University,

NOAA/NWS Change to WRF 13 June What’s Happening? WRF replaces the eta as the NAM –NAM is the North American Mesoscale “timeslot” or “Model Run”

An Update on the Stony Brook University Ensemble Forecast System        Brian A. Colle, Matthew Jones, Yanluan Lin, and Joseph B. Olson Institute.

Company Confidential/Proprietary A Regional Prototype System for a National Problem Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System Bridging the Gap from Forecast.

452 Precipitation. Northwest Weather = Terrain + Ocean Influence.

Utilization of the Stony Brook University Mesoscale Ensemble System at WFO's and RFC's Jeffrey Tongue Robert Shedd NOAA/NWS.

An Investigation of Cool Season Extratropical Cyclone Forecast Errors Within Operational Models Brian A. Colle 1 and Michael Charles 1,2 1 School of Marine.

Application of Numerical Model Verification and Ensemble Techniques to Improve Operational Weather Forecasting. Northeast Regional Operational Workshop.

Validation of Storm Surge Models for the New York Bight and Long Island Regions and the Impact of Ensembles Tom Di Liberto Dr. Brian A. Colle Stony Brook.

FORECAST PERFORMANCE OF AN OPERATIONAL MESO-GAMMA-SCALE MODELLING SYSTEM FOR EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEMS Anthony P. Praino, Lloyd A. Treinish IBM Thomas J. Watson.

The Collaborative Effort Between Stony Brook University and the National Weather Service Part 3 – Integration of Mesoscale Models in Operational Weather.

Towards an Ensemble Forecast Air Quality System for New York State Michael Erickson 1, Brian A. Colle 1, Christian Hogrefe 2,3, Prakash Doraiswamy 3, Kenneth.

Update on the Northwest Regional Modeling System Cliff Mass, Dave Ovens, Jeff Baars, Mark Albright, Phil Regulski, Dave Carey University of Washington.

Warm Season Climatology of Convective Evolution Over the Coastal Northeast U.S. Michael Charles and Brian A. Colle Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary.

United States Coast Guard 1985 Evaluation of a Multi-Model Storm Surge Ensemble for the New York Metropolitan Region Brian A. Colle Tom Di Liberto Stony.

Update on the Regional Modeling System Cliff Mass, David Ovens, Richard Steed, Mark Albright, Phil Regulski, Jeff Baars, Eric Grimit.

Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS 1 Evaluation of WRF Using High-Resolution Soil Initial Conditions from the NASA Land.

Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Northeast United States Matt Jones & Brian A. Colle NROW, 2004 Institute for.

SNOWIN’ TO BEAT THE BAND Using Satellite and Local Analysis and Prediction System Output to Diagnose the Rapid Development of a Mesoscale Snow Band Eleanor.

FORECASTING EASTERN US WINTER STORMS Are We Getting Better and Why? Jeff S. Waldstreicher NOAA/NWS Eastern Region Scientific Services Division – Bohemia,

CSTAR Update: New Tools for More Efficient Use of Ensembles in Operations Brian A. Colle, Minghua Zheng, and Edmund K.M. Chang, School of Marine and Atmospheric.

Warm Season Thunderstorm Patterns Over the New Jersey Area Al Cope Paul Croft National Weather Service Kean University Mount Holly, NJ Union, NJ.

Integration of a Mesoscale Ensemble System into National Weather Service Hydro- Meteorological Operations Operational Aspects of the COMET Collaborative.

High-Resolution Simulations of the 25 December 2002 Banded Snowstorm using Eta, MM5, and WRF David Novak NOAA/ NWS Eastern Region Headquarters, Scientific.

The Rapid Evolution of Convection Approaching New York City and Long Island Michael Charles and Brian A. Colle Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary.

Ensemble Post-Processing and it’s Potential Benefits for the Operational Forecaster Michael Erickson and Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric.

A Spatial Climatology of Convection in the Northeast U.S. John Murray and Brian A. Colle Stony Brook University Northeast Regional Operational Workshop.

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.

Mesoscale & Microscale Meteorological Division / ESSL / NCAR WRF (near) Real-Time High-Resolution Forecast Using Bluesky Wei Wang May 19, 2005 CISL User.

Roll or Arcus Cloud Supercell Thunderstorms.

Storm Surge Modeling for the New York City Metropolitan Region Brian A. Colle, Malcolm J. Bowman, Robert E. Wilson, Frank Buonaiuto, Robert Hunter, Douglas.

Coastal Meteorology and Atmospheric Prediction (COMAP) Research at Stony Brook University Michael Erickson, Brian A. Colle, Sara Ganetis, Nathan Korfe,

“1995 Sunrise Fire – Long Island” Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter to Explore Model Performance on Northeast U.S. Fire Weather Days Michael Erickson and.

GOES-R Proving Ground Activities at the NWS Storm Prediction Center Dr. Russell S. Schneider Chief, Science Support Branch NWS Storm Prediction Center.

1 Precipitation verification Precipitation verification is still in a testing stage due to the lack of station observation data in some regions

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center HPC Experimental PQPF: Method, Products, and Preliminary Verification 1 David Novak HPC Science and Operations Officer.

The Rapid Evolution of Convection Approaching the New York City Metropolitan Region Brian A. Colle and Michael Charles Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary.

3 rd Annual WRF Users Workshop Promote closer ties between research and operations Develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and assimilation system   Design.

Robert LaPlante NOAA/NWS Cleveland, OH David Schwab Jia Wang NOAA/GLERL Ann Arbor, MI 15 March 2012.

The “Ambrose” (New York Bight) Jet: Climatology and Simulations of Coastally Enhanced Winds Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony.

Use of Mesoscale Ensemble Weather Predictions to Improve Short-Term Precipitation and Hydrological Forecasts Michael Erickson 1, Brian A. Colle 1, Jeffrey.

Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION.

MMET Team Michelle Harrold Tracy Hertneky Jamie Wolff Demonstrating the utility of the Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET)

RFC Climate Requirements 2 nd NOAA Climate NWS Dialogue Meeting January 4, 2006 Kevin Werner.

Using Model Climatology to Develop a Confidence Metric Taylor Mandelbaum, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook, NY Brian Colle, School.

Predictability of High Impact Weather during the Cool Season over the Eastern U.S: CSTAR Operational Aspects Matthew Sardi and Jeffrey Tongue NOAA/NWS,

Predictability of High Impact Weather during the Cool Season: CSTAR Update and the Development of a New Ensemble Sensitivity Tool for the Forecaster Brian.

An Investigation of the Mesoscale Predictability over the Northeast U.S.        Brian A. Colle, Matthew Jones, and Joseph Olson Institute for Terrestrial.

A Case Study of the 18 th January 2015 High-Impact Light Freezing Rain Event Across the Northern Mid-Atlantic Region Heather Sheffield Meteorologist Steven.

Impacts of Rossby Wave Packets on Forecast Uncertainties and Errors

Exploring Multi-Model Ensemble Performance in Extratropical Cyclones over Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic Ocean Nathan Korfe and Brian A.

An Investigation of Model-Simulated Band Placement and Evolution in the 25 December 2002 Northeast U.S. Banded Snowstorm David Novak NOAA/ NWS Eastern.

The Risks and Rewards of High-Resolution and Ensemble Modeling Systems David Schultz NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory Paul Roebber University of.

1 NWS Digital Services American Meteorological Society Annual Partners Meeting San Diego, CA January 13, 2005 LeRoy Spayd National Weather Service Office.

1 National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP January 28, 2004.

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Lance Wood Science and Operations Officer Assessing the Impact of MODIS SST Utilizing a local WRF.

OKX The OKX sounding at 1200 UTC has 153 J kg -1 CIN extending upwards to 800 hPa and < 500 J kg -1 CAPE. There was 41.8 mm of precipitable water. By 1400.

Challenges in Convective Storm Prediction for the Coastal-Urban New York City-Long Island Brian A. Colle 1, Kelly Lombardo 2, John Murray 3, and Harrison.

Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS 2.0) Pre-Implementation Briefing College Park, MD May 14, 2015 Arthur Taylor, Huiqing Liu and Ryan Schuster MDL/NWS/NOAA.

REGIONAL SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT OF 7 FEBRUARY 2007 Justin Arnott and Michael Evans NOAA/NWS Binghamton, NY Richard Grumm.

Matt Vaughan Class Project ATM 621

Convective Scale Modelling Humphrey Lean et. al

High Resolution Simulations of Floyd (1999): Structural Evolution and Responsible Mechanisms for the Heavy Rainfall over the Northeast U.S.   

A Review of the CSTAR Ensemble Tools Available for Operations

Al Cope National Weather Service Forecast Office Mount Holly, NJ

FORECASTING EASTERN US WINTER STORMS Are We Getting Better and Why?

Presentation transcript:

The Collaborative Effort Between Stony Brook University and the National Weather Service, Part 1 - Previous Results, Current Status and Future Plans        Dr. Brian A. Colle, Matthew Jones Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary Sciences Stony Brook University / SUNY Jeffrey S. Tongue NOAA/NWS Upton, NY

l Learn about the benefits and weaknesses of high resolution versus ensemble modeling over the Northeast U.S. l Complete the first detailed multi-season verification over the Eastern U.S (see Colle et al. 2003a,b WAF). l Use the mesoscale model to understand various coastal weather phenomena (landfalling storms, sea breezes, convection). l Use the mesoscale model with other applications (wave modeling, storm surge, energy load forecasting, hydrological modeling). l For classroom education and forecasting. Motivation

SUNY-SB Realtime MM5 Domains

Floyd (1999) Extratropical Transition 12-km MM5 at 2100 UTC 16 Sept 1999 (21 h) oCoC L

WSR-88D: 21 UTC 9/16/ km MM5 (21 h) See Colle (2003, MWR December)

SBU Storm Surge modeling around NYC using POM

Storm surge animation of Floyd (1999)

SBU Wave-modeling using MM5 and WW3 (48 h): Isabel (9/19/00Z) L

PBL and wave effects on 30 December 2000 Nor-easter (21 UTC, h33) L 990 CTL (MRF) B-T PBLEta PBL MRF/WW3

Problem: Sea breezes move inland too fast (At ISP, 50% early, 38% on time, and 16% late) MM5 wind direction mean absolute errors (36 – 12 km)

Data sampling over Long Island Sound using the Port Jefferson to Bridgeport Ferry:

Observed Winds Model Winds 17:00 GMT June 23rd, 2003 Port Jefferson 17 GMT departure Bridgeport 18:10 GMT arrival N = 1 m/s

23 JUN 1700 Z Port JeffersonBridgeport Port JeffersonBridgeport

48-h mean errors (at 44004) during the cool season SLP TEMP

More negative slp errorsMore positive slp errors NOV JAN DEC FEB

24-h Energy Load Forecasts (SW Suffolk Co.) using h MM5

36-km MM h Precip total for physics ensemble of Floyd (1999)

Development and Evaluation of a 18- Member Real-time Ensemble Forecast System A COMET collaboration between Stony Brook University (SUNY) Brian Colle and Matt Jones NOAA/National Weather Service offices (Upton, NY, Mt Holly, NJ, and Taunton, MA), NE River Forecast Center, and Eastern Region Headquarters

NWS Vision 2005 Goals: “ NWS will move towards adding probabilistic forecast products!” Move from “subjective” model – to –model comparison to the use of more objective ensemble prediction systems American Meteorological Society (AMS) Statement: “The AMS endorses probability forecasts and recommends their use be substantially increased.” “Would allow user (not forecaster!) to make decisions based on quantified uncertainties with resulting economic and social benefits” ( e.g.,from taking umbrella along, to canceling a trip, to staging snow removal equipment, etc., etc.)

Work in Progess and Future Goals Objectively evaluate18-member ensemble, which became operational on 1 May Provide more ensemble data to our forecast partners (AWIPS, etc…). Feedback from forecasters is critical!! Add more ensemble members (Big question: How to construct an ensemble?) and graphics. Use ensembles in various applications (hydrological modeling--RFC, storm surge and wave modeling, energy load forecasting). Development of MM5 MOS and real-time verification page.

THE END