What lies ahead & how can we respond? AES & CE Scenario Planning for the Future Animal Agriculture Conference UCD June 14, 2005

Scenario Planning “Scenarios” help develop mental models, tools and technologies for dealing with the uncertainties of the future. “Models” are often used to anticipate and learn about “real life” – e.g. wind tunnels, fatigue tests, computer simulations.

Scenario: “… view of what the future might turn out to be – not a forecast, but one possible future outcome.” (Porter)

Each scenario group will…  Identify the forces that may have led to a particular scenario. List major forces for & against this development on easel paper.  Outline a specific action plan including roles and time frames for AES, CE and key external partners to intervene leading to a favored future. List main points of what AES & CE can do on easel paper.

Prop 39 Passes: All Animal Production Facilities Required to Change to Free Range Operations by 2010 Driving Forces…Restraining Forces… Increasing market share for free range animal products Animal Rights Activists gain political clout Research shows no health/nutritional differences between free range and confined animal products High cost of converting to large scale free range operations Public appetite for cheap, fast food continues Force field analysis of the forces for and against change… Public believes animals have poor living conditions Animal Rights Activists gain political clout Increasing market share for free range animal products Animal Rights Activists gain political clout

Strategy/Actions to Prevent Free Range Animal Production Requirement  Overall strategy: Rapid expansion of AES/CE applied research & extension of information in costs/benefits of free range vs. confined animal products. What AES & CE can do: June 2005 – Animal Ag. Conference creates collaborative network of AES & CE faculty working together on critical issues facing California Sept –AES/CE release research findings indicating health & nutritional characteristics of free range and confined animal products. Jan – Ag Issues Center & Animal Science Dept. co-sponsor public forums on risks/benefits of free range including social values. CE advisors conduct local forums.

What are the forces that might lead to the following future scenarios? 1.“Governor Signs Bill to Exclude GE Animals from California” 2.“State Politicians Zero-out CE & AES in 2010 Budget – Research & Extension Facing 70% Cut” 3.“Animal Agriculture Restricted to Three Counties in California”

Be ready to share highlights & insights from your group work… You have 30 minutes to work.

Identify the forces & create action plans to avoid… “Governor Signs Bill to Exclude GE Animals from California” – Tables # “State Politicians Zero-out CE & AES in 2010 Budget – Research & Extension Facing 70% Cut” – Tables # 2 – 3 – “Animal Agriculture Restricted to Three Counties in California” – Tables # 4 – 6 – 7