1. GEOPOLITICS, CRISES, AND CORPORATE STRATEGY Paul Bracken March 20, 2015 GNAM Week

3. March 20, 2015

7. KEY STRATEGY MEASURES Market Share Buyer Power Growth Efficiency & pricing Deterrent to entry Outsourcing What businesses should I be in? Where? Capital Market Logics Political risk Cross cutting technology (e.g. cyber security) Learning and agility Environmental scanning system 7 Business Corporate

8. AREACASEISSUES Political RiskWalmart de Mexico; Africa Oil & Gas Host & home government risk, transparency TechnologyApple; Samsung; Lenovo,First mover to disrupt; or second mover; or fast second mover CorruptionSiemensbalance compliance with competitive drive AgilityIBM; WalmartLocal vs. global balance, design, & “taste” CORPORATE STRATEGY ISSUES

9. ISSUECASE Political RiskWalmart de Mexico; Africa Oil & Gas Own government risk, transparency TechnologyApple; Samsung; Lenovo,First mover to disrupt; or second mover; or fast second mover CorruptionSiemensbalance compliance with competitive drive AgilityIBM; WalmartLocal vs. global balance, design, & “taste” CORPORATE STRATEGY ISSUES

11. “Strategic” methodology is the overall methodological approach: scenarios, environmental scans, multiframing, etc. “Tactical” methodology = particular components of the study: macroeconomics, game theory, Porter 5 forces Divide the study into two parts: strategic and tactical

12. POLITICAL AND STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTS STRATEGIC Actors: Countries, Groups, IOs Changes in tax, regulation, acceptability of products, POLITICAL International Politics (US- Russia, US-China, China- Japan, etc.) Domestic Politics (US, others)

13. THE ALTERNATIVE FUTURES APPROACH

15. I.When will China pass US in GDP? With how much confidence? econometrics, macroeconomics II. What does it mean? scenarios to work out possible implications Two Different Ways to Forecast