Weather Forecasting – The Traditional Approach Pine cones open and close according to air humidity. An open pine cone means dry weather. Ash leaf before oak, then we shall have a summer soak Red sky at night, shepherd’s delight.

60 seconds How many of these data collection methods can you remember?

Data Collection and Analysis Over 10,000 surface stations collect data – these include weather ships and automatic buoys at sea and manned and automated stations on land. Radiosondes and aircraft collect data in the upper air. Wind profilers and radar monitor changes lower down. In space, polar satellites (NOAA), geostationary satellites (meteosat) and operational environmental satellites (GOES) measure and track weather systems.

Instruments used on the surface include barometers, anemometers and rain gauges as well as visual observations. 33 stations with observations made every 3 hours. 400 voluntary vessels and 30 offshore drilling platforms. This is part of international monitoring. There are drifting and moored buoys.

Balloon-borne radiosondes provide information about pressure, temp and humidity of the atmosphere. Released twice a day all over the world. Weather radar can show rainfall patterns. Often shown on TV forecasts and used for river management and flood warnings.

POLAR ORIBITING SATELLITES pass around the earth from pole to pole at a height of 670km. 1 orbit takes 1 hour and 42 minutes. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITES remain over the equator and are stationary with respect to earth. At a height of 36,000 km one orbit takes exactly 24 hours.

Forecasting the Weather 1.SYNOPTIC WEATHER FORECASTING uses surface and upper air data to predict system movement. 2.NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL FORECASTING uses analogue methods to compare current trends with past records. 3.ENSEMBLE FORECASTING uses computer models with the input of different starting to conditions to predict a certain type of weather (e.g. Snow)

The Forecast Preparation Process

Why is weather prediction a challenge? If forecasters get it wrong then there can be many consequences. In technologically advanced societies many activities depend on accurate predictions. The impact of extreme events is costly to insurers and governments. It is easier to respond if emergency services are on standby. One challenge is to assist countries less able to afford sophisticated prediction.

When it all goes wrong…………………..