Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Winter Weather Services Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Winter Weather Services Sam Contorno NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

Outline Team CompositionTeam Composition Vision / BenefitsVision / Benefits Goals / TargetsGoals / Targets Key Information GapsKey Information Gaps Key SolutionsKey Solutions Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs SummarySummary

Winter Weather Services Team Composition Sam Contorno – NWS/OSTSam Contorno – NWS/OST Mark Tew – NWS/OCCWSMark Tew – NWS/OCCWS Marty Ralph – OAR/ETLMarty Ralph – OAR/ETL Jack Dostalek – NESDIS/CIRAJack Dostalek – NESDIS/CIRA John Cortinas – OAR/NSSL/CIMMSJohn Cortinas – OAR/NSSL/CIMMS Andy Edman – NWS/WR SSDAndy Edman – NWS/WR SSD Paul Sisson – NWS/WFO BTVPaul Sisson – NWS/WFO BTV Jeff Waldstreicher – NWS/ERJeff Waldstreicher – NWS/ER Peter Manousos – NWS/NCEP/HPCPeter Manousos – NWS/NCEP/HPC Allen White – OAR/ETLAllen White – OAR/ETL Paul Neiman – OAR/ETLPaul Neiman – OAR/ETL Paul Stokols – NWS/OCCWSPaul Stokols – NWS/OCCWS

Winter Weather Services Vision / Benefits Vision Winter Storm Warning Lead Time > 24 Hrs Probabilistic Guidance Out to 10 Days Vision Winter Storm Warning Lead Time > 24 Hrs Probabilistic Guidance Out to 10 Days Large Winter Storms Result in Losses of $Billions and Influences Regional/National Economy. Better Information = Better Decisions by Public Prior to Arrival of Inclement Wx $ Millions in Savings for Public Works & Transportation Sector

Winter Weather Goals/Targets to FY 12 Existing GPRA Performance Measure FY01Skill FY07 Goal FY12 Target Winter Storm Warning Lead Time 13 Hours 15 Hours 20 Hours Winter Storm Warning POD 90%90%94% Proposed Performance Measure FY01 Skill FY07 Target FY12 Target Winter Storm Warning FAR 27%26%23% On Track Low Risk High Risk

Winter Weather Key Information Gaps More Accurate Cyclone Track: More Precise Position of Precipitation Cutoff and Rain/Snow Line/Snow LevelMore Accurate Cyclone Track: More Precise Position of Precipitation Cutoff and Rain/Snow Line/Snow Level Limited Coastal and Offshore Observations AloftLimited Coastal and Offshore Observations Aloft Understanding of Model Guidance UncertaintyUnderstanding of Model Guidance Uncertainty More Accurate Identification of Precipitation Type, Cloud Microphysical Info, and Vertical Distribution of MoistureMore Accurate Identification of Precipitation Type, Cloud Microphysical Info, and Vertical Distribution of Moisture More Accurate Identification of Mesoscale Snow Bands and Orographic EffectsMore Accurate Identification of Mesoscale Snow Bands and Orographic Effects

Winter Weather Key S&T Solutions GapSolutionImpact More Accurate Cyclone Track; Rain/Snow Line; Snow Level Advanced GFS/8 km WRFAdvanced GFS/8 km WRF Adv Data Assim/Sat UpgradesAdv Data Assim/Sat Upgrades Dual PolarizationDual Polarization Profiler Snow-level DetectionProfiler Snow-level Detection 8 km WRF: Rain/Snow Line Resolved within 30 km (50 km today) Limited Coastal and Offshore Observations Aloft Targeted ObservationsTargeted Observations Coastal and Buoy ProfilersCoastal and Buoy Profilers Satellite UpgradesSatellite Upgrades Improved NWP; Improved Winter Storm Warning Lead Time and POD Probabilistic; Range of Uncertainties Weather-Climate ConnectionWeather-Climate Connection Advanced EnsemblesAdvanced Ensembles Advanced Data AssimilationAdvanced Data Assimilation Increased Certainty and Consistency of Forecasts; Longer Range Forecasts ID of Precipitation Type, Microphysical Info, Vertical Distribution of Moisture Dual PolarizationDual Polarization GPS, MDCRS, Satellite UpgradesGPS, MDCRS, Satellite Upgrades Decision Assistance Tools (e.g., Improved Precip Type Algorithm)Decision Assistance Tools (e.g., Improved Precip Type Algorithm) Cloud Microphysics SchemesCloud Microphysics Schemes Better, Precise Forecasts of Precip Type/Amount More Accurate Monitoring of Meso Snow Bands and Orographic Effects Meso SnowBand TechniqueMeso SnowBand Technique Improved Understanding of Physical ProcessesImproved Understanding of Physical Processes Finer-Scale Forecasts of Heavy Snow/Icing

Winter Weather Key S&T Solutions Current Programmatic Phase Dual Polarization Targeted Obs. 8km WRF* Advanced Ensembles Weather Event Simulator Meso Snowband Technique Deployment OTE DTE R&D Observations DA/Models Forecast Techniques Forecast Techniques Training Satellite Upgrades Snow Level Detection Algorithm Precip Type Algorithms* Winter Weather & NWP PDS Weather-Climate Connection GFS SR Ensembles MDCRS-WVSS2 GPS-IPW

Winter Weather Outstanding R&D Needs Develop Sensors that Accurately Detect Different Precipitation Types/Measure Snow DepthDevelop Sensors that Accurately Detect Different Precipitation Types/Measure Snow Depth Develop Ensemble Techniques for Probabilistic Forecasts of Severity of Large-Scale Winter StormsDevelop Ensemble Techniques for Probabilistic Forecasts of Severity of Large-Scale Winter Storms Improve Understanding of Mesoscale and Microphysical Processes that Lead to Heavy Winter Precipitation EventsImprove Understanding of Mesoscale and Microphysical Processes that Lead to Heavy Winter Precipitation Events Improve Understanding of Orographic Effects on Mesoscale Distribution of Winter PrecipitationImprove Understanding of Orographic Effects on Mesoscale Distribution of Winter Precipitation Develop Artificial Intelligence Systems to Forecast Snowbands/Heavy Snowfall/Significant IcingDevelop Artificial Intelligence Systems to Forecast Snowbands/Heavy Snowfall/Significant Icing Develop Improved Collaborative Forecast ToolsDevelop Improved Collaborative Forecast Tools Develop Improved Verification ProceduresDevelop Improved Verification Procedures

Winter Weather Summary R&D Needs Precipitation Type SensorsPrecipitation Type Sensors Probabilistic Forecast TechniquesProbabilistic Forecast Techniques Artificial Intelligence to Detect Heavy SnowbandsArtificial Intelligence to Detect Heavy Snowbands Understanding of Mesoscale and Microphysical ProcessesUnderstanding of Mesoscale and Microphysical Processes Deploy High Resolution, More Accurate Models Enhance Decision Assistance Tools Expand Targeted Observations Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques Deploy Dual Polarization/Satellite Upgrades Vision Lead Times > 24 Hrs; Prob. Guidance 10 Days Increasing Performance Continuous Training

Back-up Information

General PublicGeneral Public Emergency ManagersEmergency Managers Federal/State/Local GovernmentsFederal/State/Local Governments Transportation IndustriesTransportation Industries International InterestsInternational Interests Educational Organizations/Institutions of Higher LearningEducational Organizations/Institutions of Higher Learning MediaMedia Private Sector Weather ForecastersPrivate Sector Weather Forecasters Primary Customers/Partners

Key Products/Services Winter Weather Watches/WarningsWinter Weather Watches/Warnings Zone ForecastsZone Forecasts Winter Weather Advisories/OutlooksWinter Weather Advisories/Outlooks Public Information StatementsPublic Information Statements Heavy Snow/Icing DiscussionsHeavy Snow/Icing Discussions Probabilistic Heavy Snow/Icing ForecastsProbabilistic Heavy Snow/Icing Forecasts Short-term (1-6h) Winter Weather DiscussionShort-term (1-6h) Winter Weather Discussion

Profiler Snow-Level Detection Snow Advisory raised to Winter Storm Warning Prototype profiler snow-level product showed 2700 ft snow level at the coast, 1300 ft lower than the snow level that had been predicted before landfall. NWS’ Portland OR SOO (Bill Schneider) upgraded earlier Snow Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning based on this lower snow level and passes being at 4000 ft. Forecaster’s use of these data increased warning lead time by 15 h in this case and increased POD by avoiding a miss. Predicted snow level