April 22, 2003 IERM Overall Objectives 1.Quantify relationship between hydrologic and hydraulic attributes and effects on selected ecological performance indicators in the Lake Ontario/St. Lawrence River system. 2.Use these relationships to establish criteria that can be used in the Shared Vision Model (SVM) to provide the “acceptability or tolerance” range for each H&H attribute. 3.Serve as tool to assist ETWG in developing alternative regulation plan proposals.

Computational Flow in IERM System Geometry DEM Land cover Meteorology Solar Radiation Precipitation Air Temp Wind Initial Conditions Population Biomass Bottom substrate Management Actions Fish stocking/ harvesting Land use Nutrient loads Natural Stressors ANS (e.g., zebra mussels) Fish-eating birds Lake and upper River Water level time series Flow at Moses-Saunders Dam Tributary inflows to lower river Velocity in upper river Velocity & water levels in lower river Temperature in upper river Temperature in lake Temperature in lower river Wetland habitat Plant community Lake and upper river Wetland habitat Plant community lower river Impoundment habitat Plant community Lower river Fish habitat WUA Lake Fish habitat WUA Lower river Fish habitat WUA Upper river Fish Bioenergetics Lake Fish Bioenergetics Upper river Fish Bioenergetics Lower river Fish pop/comm Dynamics Lower river Fish pop/comm dynamics Lake Fish pop/comm dynamics Upper river Wetland bird HSI Wetland bird metrics Muskrat abundance Lake and upper river Dabbling ducks - LR Wetland birds - LR Muskrat abundance Lake and upper river

April 22, 2003 Properties of IERM Time-dependent deterministic model  Computation flows from plan-driven H&H attributes to ecological endpoints (measures of PIs) Driven by basic system geometry, hydrometeorology, and water level/flow time series for given regulation plan Model will cover three integrated zones: Lake Ontario, upper St. Lawrence River, lower St. Lawrence River Model will illustrate justification for H&H attribute criteria

April 22, 2003 Immediate Questions to Resolve List all “measures of Performance Indicators” to include in IERM Describe cause-effect pathways between H&H attributes (stressors derived from implementation of a given plan) and each Performance Indicator measure included in model  These pathways will form impact evaluation functions that may be used to establish criteria for plan formulations  Not clear if IS concept and approach in SVM will continue to be used (plan detailed meeting with SVM developers)

April 22, 2003 Draft – Measures of Performance Indicators Wetlands Availability, diversity, and quality of plant community Annual biomass production Fish Habitat supply (WSA) (between/within year) Risk of within year habitat loss Northern pike YOY production Northern pike population, structure, size Fish guild biomass (type of guilds?) Birds Dabbling duck nesting success Dabbling duck brood survival Dabbling duck migration success Wetland breeding bird diversity Muskrat Abundance Amphibians/reptiles Indicator species diversity and abundance Special Interest species and habitats

April 22, 2003 Temperature Water Level & Flow YOY Abundance Growth Predation Natural Mortality Juvenile Abundance Growth Predation Natural Mortality Adult Abundance Growth Natural Mortality Reproduction (Graduation) Fish Species/Guild Fish Cause-Effect Pathways (Example) Habitat Wetland Quality % Emergent Vegetation % Floating Vegetation % Submergent Vegetation Cattails Wetland Quantity Total Area Inundation Area Fish Habitat WSA Stranding Events

April 22, 2003 Lower River Water Level & Flow Waterfowl P.I. Waterfowl Cause-Effect Pathways (Example) Water Level Sorel) Weekly Average (late April thru July) Growing Season Avg. (Apr-Sep) Spring Average (Apr 10 – May 7) Nesting Success Maximum nests % of successful nests by week Migration Success Maximum waterfowl migration % of maximum waterfowl migration Brooding Success Maximum broods % of maximum broods supported by emergent marshes Total Habitat Acreage

April 22, 2003 Waterfowl Satisfaction Curves (Lower St. Lawrence)

April 22, 2003 Other Issues to Resolve Needs of faunal habitat characteristics/ resolution  Muskrats,amphibians, ducks, pike, palustrine birds, warm water fish guilds, etc.) Spatial coverage and resolution by zone  Extrapolate 32 Lake Ontario wetlands to entire basin?  Use Lake Saint-Pierre Studies to “indicate” response of entire lower river? Integration of range of time scales  From weekly to decadal Exogenous factors of importance to each PI measure  Provided by individual specialists How to value (express trends in terms of acceptable or unacceptable response to H&H attributes for given plan) PI measures?