Watershed and River Management Program (WaRSMP) Description of Yakima River Basin and Yakima Storage Project MMS and Yakima River Basin models Global Climate-Change.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Mid-West Electric Consumers Association September 16, 2014 Corps of Engineers US Army Missouri River Mainstem.

Advertisements

Introduction  Rising temperature and changes in the frequency and magnitude of precipitation events due to climate change (IPCC-AR4 report) are anticipated.

Brian McInerney Hydrologist National Weather Service Hydrologic Outlook April 2006.

Yellowtail Dam & Bighorn Lake Water Supply & Operations Meeting Billings, Montana October 8, 2009 RECLAMATION Managing Water in the West.

1 Overview of South Yuba River Hydrology Bob Center Presented to FERC Academy on December 10, 2005.

Klamath Watershed in Perspective A Review of Historical Hydrology of Major Features of the Klamath River Watershed and Evaluation of Hardy Iron Gate Flow.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Portland’s Water Supply Richard Palmer and Margaret Hahn University of Washington Department of Civil and Environmental.

Climate Change, Biofuels, and Land Use Legacy: Trusting Computer Models to Guide Water Resources Management Trajectories Anthony Kendall Geological Sciences,

Impacts of Climate Change on the Tualatin River Basin Nathan VanRheenen, Erin Clancy, Richard Palmer, PhD, PE Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Modeling the Boise Reservoir System with Climate Change Leslie Stillwater, Pacific NW Region.

Yakima River Basin Water Storage Feasibility Study 2007 Climate & Water Resource Forecast meeting Kelso, WA Kim McCartney Upper Columbia Area Office October.

Generating a Comprehensive Climate Change Streamflow Scenarios Database for the Columbia River Basin Alan F. Hamlet Kurt Unger Philip W. Mote Eric Salathé.

Drought Impacts to Bull Trout in the Yakima Basin – 2001 (2005?) John Easterbrooks, Region 3 Fish Program Manager.

Mid-Range Streamflow Forecasts for River Management in the Puget Sound Region Richard Palmer Matthew Wiley Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Optimized Flood Control in the Columbia River Basin for a Global Warming Scenario 1Dept. of Civil and Env. Engineering, UW 2CSES Climate Impacts Group,

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources in the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood Alan Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental.

Climate Change in the Columbia Basin Starting the Dialogue CCRF Workshop Cranbrook BC May 30 th 2007.

Alan F. Hamlet Philip W. Mote Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Dennis P. Lettenmaier Alan F. Hamlet JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington July,

Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Idaho's Climate and Water Resource Forecast for the 2008 Water Year Sponsored by: The Climatic Impacts Group at the University of Washington and the.

Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington October 6, 2009 CIG Fall Forecast Meeting Climate science in the public interest.

Alan F. Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner Ingrid Tohver Kristian Mickelson JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources: Is it an Issue for Emergency Managers? Richard Palmer Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,

Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Implications of 21 st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington Marketa M Elsner 1 with.

A Preliminary Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Reliability on West Side Water Supplies Richard Palmer and Margaret Hahn Department of Civil.

CRFS Technical Committee Fall Meeting LC Operations Update November 20, 2014.

Hood River Basin Study Water Resources Modeling (MODSIM) Taylor Dixon, Hydrologist February 12, 2014.

CRFS March 30, Virgin River NWS-SWS: 90 NWS-ESP: (+8-15% El Nino weighted) NRCS daily: 80 NRCS statistical: 78 Coordinated: 80 / 195% median.

Southwest Hydrometeorology Symposium Tempe, AZ September 28, 2011 Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center : A Year of Extremes.

El Vado Dam Hydrologic Evaluation Joseph Wright, P.E. Bureau of Reclamation Technical Services Center Flood Hydrology and Meteorology Group.

1. Introduction 3. Global-Scale Results 2. Methods and Data Early spring SWE for historic ( ) and future ( ) periods were simulated. Early.

Rush River Assessment Project Hydrologic Flow Study Sibley County SWCD Presentation to the Minnesota River Research Forum March 10, 2005.

Why Should New Mexico Dam Owners Care about Climate Change and Extreme Events Dagmar Llewellyn, Reclamation Albuquerque Area Office Presentation to the.

IRP Approach to Water Supply Alternatives for Duck River Watershed: Presentation to XII TN Water Resources Symposium William W. Wade Energy and Water.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Nate Mantua, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Climate Change and The NW Power Supply Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest University of Washington April 21, 2009.

Climate change impact on drought risk and uncertainty in the Willamette River basin Dept. of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR Il-Won.

IMPROVING MILLERTON LAKE FLOOD CONTROL OPERATIONS TO INCREASE WATER SUPPLY Mr. Antonio M. Buelna, P.E. Mr. Douglas DeFlitch Ms. Katie Lee October 29, 2009.

Center for Science in the Earth System Annual Meeting June 8, 2005 Briefing: Hydrology and water resources.

Looking at Impacts of Climate Change on Seattle City Light Lynn Best, Director Environmental Affairs.

Alan F. Hamlet Philip W. Mote Martyn Clark Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and.

The hydrological cycle of the western United States is expected to be significantly affected by climate change (IPCC-AR4 report). Rising temperature and.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Nate Mantua, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Modeling Development CRFS—Technical Meeting November 14, 2012.

Colorado River Update Terry Fulp Deputy Regional Director

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Introduction  Rising temperature and changes in the frequency and magnitude of precipitation due to climate change (IPCC-AR4 report) events are anticipated.

Streamflow Response to Climate: Why Geology Matters –Tim Mayer, US Fish and Wildlife Service Presented at the Oregon Water Conference Corvallis, OR May.

NON-TREATY STORAGE AGREEMENT “Introduction to Operations and the Non Treaty Storage Scenarios” Presenter: Jim Gaspard.

Climate Change and its Impacts in the Pacific Northwest Meade Krosby Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington Osoyoos Lake Water.

How much water will be available in the upper Colorado River Basin under projected climatic changes? Abstract The upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), is.

Hydrologic Forecasting Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and the Department.

Colorado River Basin: Overview of Determining Lake Powell and Lake Mead Annual Operational Tiers WSWC Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Workshop December.

BASIN SCALE WATER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT EVALUATION CONSIDERING CLIMATE RISK Yasir Kaheil Upmanu Lall C OLUMBIA W ATER C ENTER : Global Water Sustainability.

Hydrology and application of the RIBASIM model SYMP: Su Yönetimi Modelleme Platformu RBE River Basin Explorer: A modeling tool for river basin planning.

Note: This presentation contains only preliminary research results. If you have any questions, please contact Julie Vano at Thanks.

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Greg Smith Senior Hydrologist National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center January 25, 2011 Navajo.

CRFS Technical Committee Fall Meeting LC Operations Update December 8, 2015.

Hydrology and application of the RIBASIM model SYMP: Su Yönetimi Modelleme Platformu RBE River Basin Explorer: A modeling tool for river basin planning.

CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update November 14, 2012.

Yuma Agriculture Water - Rights and Supply Terry Fulp Director, Lower Colorado Region Yuma Agriculture Water Conference January 13, 2016.

Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Nate Mantua, Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Hydrologic implications of 20th century warming in the western U.S.

UW Hydrologic Forecasting: Yakima R. Discussion

Presentation transcript:

Watershed and River Management Program (WaRSMP) Description of Yakima River Basin and Yakima Storage Project MMS and Yakima River Basin models Global Climate-Change assumptions Comparison of Watershed simulations—present versus GCC scenarios Mark Mastin Warren Sharp

Cooperative USGS / Bureau of Reclamation program Cooperative USGS / Bureau of Reclamation program Purpose is research, development, and implementation of a Decision Support System to achieve equitable balance among water resource issues. Purpose is research, development, and implementation of a Decision Support System to achieve equitable balance among water resource issues.

RiverWare System River and Reservoir Management Models Long-term Mid term Short-term Planning Operations Operations RiverWare System River and Reservoir Management Models Long-term Mid term Short-term Planning Operations Operations Data Management System (HDB) Hydrologic Database Data Management System (HDB) Hydrologic Database Modular Modeling System (MMS) Watershed and Ecosystem Models Modular Modeling System (MMS) Watershed and Ecosystem Models Query, Display, and Analysis GIS Statistics Risk Query, Display, and Analysis GIS Statistics Risk Data Sources Hydrometeorological Environmental Physical/ chemical Spatial Data Sources Hydrometeorological Environmental Physical/ chemical Spatial GIS Weasel

Water Balance Ave. Precip. (27 inches)= 8.7 million ac-ft12,000 cfs Unregulated runoff= 4.0 million ac-ft 5,600 cfs Regulated runoff= 2.6 million ac-ft 3,600 cfs Water Demand= 2.5 million ac-ft65% unregulated runoff Storage= 1.06 million ac-ft26% unregulated runoff Miscellaneous Drainage Area = 6,200 sq. miles, ranging from 400 to 8,000 ft. Rainfall varies from 90 inches in the Cascades to 6 inches in the lower basin About 45% of water diverted for irrigation becomes return flow During low-flow season about 75% of the volume is return flow

Evaluate four storage projects in terms of how will they improve fisheries Bumping Lake enlargemnent Wymer Dam Keechelus to Kachess pipeline Black Rock Reservoir—$ Billion, 1.3 million acre feet two

By ºF (+1.72ºC) By ºF (+2.9ºC) (Climate Impact Group, Mote and others, 1999, Impacts of Climate Variability and Change, Pacific Northwest)

(Climate Impact Group, Mote and others, 1999, Impacts of Climate Variability and Change, Pacific Northwest) “Projections of temperature changes, both globally and regionally, are made with higher confidence than precipitation changes.”

For this study: Global Climate Change (GCC) Scenario +3.6ºF (+2.0ºC) increase in air temperature throughout the year Present Unregulated Flow (PUF) scenario represented by the average simulated runoff for water years Precipitation was not change for the GCC scenario

About 95 percent of the runoff at Yakima River near Parker is generated from the four modeling units: Upper Yakima Naches Toppenish/Satus Yakima Canyon

Upper Yakima Modeling Unit 404 MRUs 17 subbasins 21 nodes 14 precipitation inputs 13 temperature inputs over 54,000 parameters

Station or Reservoir PUF Exceedence Percentiles GCC Exceedence Percentiles 50%90%50%90% K ac-ft % diffK ac-ft% diff Cle Elum Rimrock Yakima R. nr Parker 1, , April thru August Runoff

April 1 Snowpack 1,945,000 acre-feet 803,000 acre-feet

April 1 Snowpack

Discharge, in ft 3 /s Yakima River near Parker

Model Simulations Yakima R. nr. Parker Runoff, ac-ft (Apr.1-August 31) PUF--median daily1,891,800 GCC--median daily1,118,500 PUF--WY ,100 PUF--WY ,200 PUF--WY ,500

Model Simulations Yakima R. nr. Parker Runoff, ac-ft (Apr.1-August 31) PUF--90% exceedence922,600 GCC--90% exceedence579,000 PUF--WY ,100 PUF--WY ,200 PUF--WY ,500

Compared to PUF scenarios, GCC scenarios have: Seasonal patterns of higher flows in late autumn and winter, peaks earlier in the water year, and low spring and summer runoff Spring snowpack less with biggest percent differences in the lower elevations Total median, April-August runoff about 770,000 ac-ft less at Parker Median total volumes of runoff probably manageable However, at least 10% of the water years can be expected to generate less runoff than the lowest observed runoff ( ) and will likely provide significant challenges to water managers.