Modelling the conception to first birthday mortality curve Dr Paul Williamson & Prof. Bob Woods Department of Geography Workshop on Fetal and Infant Survival.

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Presentation transcript:

Modelling the conception to first birthday mortality curve Dr Paul Williamson & Prof. Bob Woods Department of Geography Workshop on Fetal and Infant Survival

Days after LMP Dying out of 1000 conceptions Dying out of 1000 conceptions

Embryo: days after LMPEarly fetal: days after LMPLate fetal (stillbirths): days after LMPEarly neonatal: days after LMPLate neonatal: days after LMPPost neonatal: days after LMP

Where y^ = predicted fetal-infant loss per 1000 conceptions x = days after LMP y o = x o = 280 A = B = C = D = E = F = G = H =

a) Component 1embryonic and early fetal loss [ days after LMP] [Exponential growth curve]

b) Component 2late fetal and neonatal [ days after LMP] [Aysmmetrical sigmoidal (4 params.)]

c) Component 3 post-neonatal [ days after LMP] [Asymmetrical sigmoidal (3 params.)]