The American Voter: A check on the president?

Some problems with the Electoral College? Faithless Electors? A small/big state advantage? The winner of the popular vote doesn’t always become president

In small groups please discuss the following… Do you think elections serve as a check on presidential power for a first term president? In what ways? What is required for elections to serve as a check? Do those conditions exist today? Is the public capable of making that judgment? You will hand in your notes for participation credit

Today: Why Americans Vote and Don’t Vote How Voters make up their minds Do presidents win mandates?

Correlations between party ID and vote choice (controlling for SES)

Do voters really decide based on issues presented in the campaign? Median Voter Theorem: –In a winner-take-all system, parties should promote policies that appeal to the voter at the median of the distribution of voter preferences. In Presidential elections, ensures that candidates will gravitate toward the middle, and NOT try to distinguish their positions

Americans DO vote! WHY? Emotional benefit—civic duty Social connectedness

Why Americans Don’t Vote (compared to people in other democracies) Alienation?

Is trust the explanation? CountryPercent turnoutPercent saying they trust the government USA52.834% France66.233% Italy90.5*14% Belgium93.4*20% Austria90.555%

Responses to surveys about trust in government, voters & nonvoters % of respondents who vote % of respondents who don’t vote You can trust the government to do what’s right most or all of the time 5941 You can only trust the government to do what’s right some or none of the time 6139

Why Americans Don’t Vote Alienation? (No) More frequent elections

Voter turnout, presidential and midterm elections

Why Americans Don’t Vote Alienation? (No) More frequent elections Registration laws

Why Americans Vote Less Than They Used To Changes in the denominator

Calculating Turnout The number of voters who cast votes = _____________________________ The number of eligible voters

Why Americans Don’t Vote Changes in the denominator Changes in Party Mobilization A generational explanation

Generational turnout differences

Who Votes? People who are registered People with more education People with more interest in politics People with higher incomes African-Americans (all other things equal)

Do Presidents Win Mandates? Only if: Clear campaign positions Voters know what their own positions are Voters know what president’s positions are President wins clear electoral victory