ETNA volcano An example of Time Series Analysis Daniele Alami.

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Presentation transcript:

ETNA volcano An example of Time Series Analysis Daniele Alami

Country :Italy Subregion Name :Italy / Sicily Volcano Number : = Volcano Type : Stratovolcanoes Volcano Status: Historical Last Known Eruption : 2010 Summit Elevation : 3330 m 10,925 feet Latitude : °N 37°44'3"N Longitude : °E 15°0'16"E Geographic Characteristic sources:

Eruptions Characteristic Alternation of effusive and explosive eruption Central vent eruption Lateral vent eruption Radial fissure eruption Lava flows Pyroclastic flows Phreatic explosion sources:

Choose of the data analysis Only the time pattern of the 3 major active crater in storical time. Only the data registered since 1000 AC each for the three major active crater. Uncertane data BC obtained aftyer radiometric or tephra layers analysis. Many eruption occur in the same time in different crater causing an overlapping of the time pattern These three principal crater are the principal producer of lava volume of this volcano. sources:

The three Summit crater: Central, NE, SE

Duration of historical activity on the 3 major crater in historical time sources: In this graphs are possible to recognize the Central crater like the crater with major activity In terms of durations for the eruptions.

Duration of historical eruptions on the 3 major active crater ( Central, NE & SE) sources: We haven’t a cycle for the duration of the eruption but costant values for almost all of that. The peaks in the graphs shows only rare event where the explosion activity is more intense except for the NE crater.

Relationship between duration of eruptions and repose time for the 3 major active crater ( Central, Ne & SE) sources: Central crater NE crater In all of the three major craters We have a decreasing of the Inactivity time when we come To present day.

Volcanic Explosive Index for the 3 major active crater in historical time ( Central, NE &SE) sources: Etna is a stratovolcanoes wich alternating Period of exploisve eruption and period with lava Flows and effusive eruption. By the graphs we recognized an avarage in the Activity signed by a VEI index level around 2.

Conclusion: forecasting volcanic eruptions for the 3 major crater (Central, NE & SE) Is there a time cycle during the evolution of Etna volcano in the last 1000 years? Every events occured on each of the three major crater is casual or follow some rules? What’s appear after the analysis of the time series of each crater? What we might expect in a future relying only on observations made on this time pattern?