Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Fire Weather Services Paula Davidson Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Fire Weather Services Paula Davidson NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 Rev 11/14/02

Outline Team CompositionTeam Composition Vision/BenefitsVision/Benefits Goals/TargetsGoals/Targets Key Information GapsKey Information Gaps Key SolutionsKey Solutions Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs SummarySummary

Fire Weather Services Team Composition Rusty Billingsley (NWS/OCWWS)Rusty Billingsley (NWS/OCWWS) Phillip Bothwell (NWS/NCEP)Phillip Bothwell (NWS/NCEP) Paula Davidson (NWS/OST)Paula Davidson (NWS/OST) John McGinley (OAR)John McGinley (OAR) (NESDIS)(NESDIS)

Fire Weather Services Vision / Benefits Vision  Eliminate weather-related wildland fire death/injury  Reduce fire management costs and health impacts, with more timely and accurate forecasts Vision  Eliminate weather-related wildland fire death/injury  Reduce fire management costs and health impacts, with more timely and accurate forecasts Increasing lead times for Red Flag / critical fire weather helps firefighting and emergency response Tactical efficiency improvements: Each 1% reduction in average time of Type-I deployments saves ~ $10 M Strategic efficiency improvements: Reducing escaped fires by 1 each year saves ~ $12.5 M

Fire Weather Services Goals/Targets to FY 12 Performance Measure: Existing GPRA Current Skill FY07 Goal FY12 Target ProposedCurrent FY07 Target FY12 Target Red Flag Warning LT 8.7 hr** 8.7 hr** 14 hr 24 hr Red Flag Warning POD 90%** 90%**91%92% Spot Forecast element accuracy (T, winds, RH) NA Within 30% national MAE Within 10% national MAE Fire Wx Zone Forecast accuracy (T, winds, RH) NA Within 20% national MAE Within 5% national MAE Extend daily national fire weather outlook 2 day thru day 5 thru day 10 National fire wx outlook: POD critical fire wx at day 1 NA80%85% NA= not presently collected** WR only; national statistics not available

Fire Weather Services Key Information Gaps Inadequate density of observations – especially remote areasInadequate density of observations – especially remote areas Inadequate time and space resolution for fire weather and smoke forecastsInadequate time and space resolution for fire weather and smoke forecasts Insufficient forecast/guidance product coverageInsufficient forecast/guidance product coverage Insufficient verificationInsufficient verification Insufficient coordination and dissemination from obs to models to forecast productsInsufficient coordination and dissemination from obs to models to forecast products Need to convey forecast uncertaintyNeed to convey forecast uncertainty “BISCUIT” FIRE

Fire Weather Services Key S&T Solutions GapSolutionImpact Density of observations– especially remote areas Time and space resolution for fire weather and smoke forecasts Forecast/guidance products coverage Verification Expand availability of remote and incident- specific obsExpand availability of remote and incident- specific obs Assimilate available surface obs (e.g. Fire Raws); incident-specific observationsAssimilate available surface obs (e.g. Fire Raws); incident-specific observations 8km WRF; HRW 3km; 3km NMM (6 locations)8km WRF; HRW 3km; 3km NMM (6 locations) NDFD 1.5km; gridded MOSNDFD 1.5km; gridded MOS Extend fire wx outlook to day-3 and beyond; GFSExtend fire wx outlook to day-3 and beyond; GFS SMART TOOLS: e.g. RFW condition searchSMART TOOLS: e.g. RFW condition search Implement systematic, automated verificationImplement systematic, automated verification increase in forecast accuracy: spot, fire weather, on-scene support increase critical fire wx POD maintain high RFW POD across the Nation increase forecast accuracy, esp. spot forecasts

Fire Weather Services Key S&T Solutions (Continued) GapSolutionImpact Coordination and dissemination of information: from obs to models to forecast products Convey forecast uncertainty Advanced IT infrastructure/ mobile connectivityAdvanced IT infrastructure/ mobile connectivity Probabilistic forecast productsProbabilistic forecast products Advanced Ensembles: SREF 12km and GlobalAdvanced Ensembles: SREF 12km and Global Training/outreachTraining/outreach increase in operational use of on-scene weather and forecast information increase operational utility of forecasts

Fire Weather Services Key S&T Solutions Ingest Targeted Observations Ingest Surface Observations 8km WRF Deployment OTE DTE R&D Observations DA/Models Forecast Techniques Training Advanced Ensembles Chem-WRF Automated Verification 3km HRW Dec Assist Tools National standardized verification NDFD Adv comms for IMETs Dissemination 4DDA GFS

Fire Weather Services Outstanding R&D Needs Improve high-resolution prediction methods for complex terrainImprove high-resolution prediction methods for complex terrain Develop methods for verifying spot forecasts, given flexible, variable observational dataDevelop methods for verifying spot forecasts, given flexible, variable observational data Improve methods to ingest incident-specific observations into high- resolution forecast models and guidanceImprove methods to ingest incident-specific observations into high- resolution forecast models and guidance Improve understanding of convection as related to critical fire weatherImprove understanding of convection as related to critical fire weather Develop methods for forecasting, verifying dry thunderstormsDevelop methods for forecasting, verifying dry thunderstorms Improve methods to forecast smoke impactsImprove methods to forecast smoke impacts Develop probabilistic methods for fire weather forecastingDevelop probabilistic methods for fire weather forecasting Couple fire-behavior to fire weather modelsCouple fire-behavior to fire weather models

Fire Weather Services Summary Increasing Performance R&D Needs R&D Needs Improve high-resolutionImprove high-resolution prediction in complex terrain Develop methods to verify spot forecastsDevelop methods to verify spot forecasts Improve methods to ingest incident- specific observationsImprove methods to ingest incident- specific observations Improve understanding of convection in critical fire weatherImprove understanding of convection in critical fire weather Improve methods to forecast dry thunderstorms; smoke impactsImprove methods to forecast dry thunderstorms; smoke impacts Develop probabilistic forecast methods for fire weatherDevelop probabilistic forecast methods for fire weather Improve Model Resolution and Accuracy New and Improved Forecast Techniques Integrate Observations Improved coordination/ dissemination Probabilistic Techniques Coupled Hazards Models Ingest Targeted Obs. Vision Eliminate Weather-related Wildland Fire Death/Injury Reduce Costs

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Proposed Performance Measure: Red Flag Warning