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Incident Meteorologists and Decision Support Lisa Kriederman Forecaster/Incident Meteorologist(T) National Weather Service Boulder.

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Presentation on theme: "Incident Meteorologists and Decision Support Lisa Kriederman Forecaster/Incident Meteorologist(T) National Weather Service Boulder."— Presentation transcript:

1 Incident Meteorologists and Decision Support Lisa Kriederman Forecaster/Incident Meteorologist(T) National Weather Service Boulder

2 Our Mission " The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community. "

3 Why are we involved? FUEL TOPOGRAPHYWEATHER Fire Behavior

4 Fire Weather What are critical fire weather (Red Flag) conditions? What are critical fire weather (Red Flag) conditions? Low humidity Low humidity Strong Wind (thunderstorms, pressure gradients, fronts) Strong Wind (thunderstorms, pressure gradients, fronts) Dry Lightning Dry Lightning

5 RESULT? 6/29/04

6 Incident Meteorologists Incident Meteorologists – IMETs Incident Meteorologists – IMETs Specially trained NWS forecasters in microscale forecasting, incident command structure, fire behavior, and fire suppression operations. Specially trained NWS forecasters in microscale forecasting, incident command structure, fire behavior, and fire suppression operations. Can be sent to remote locations with portable equipment Can be sent to remote locations with portable equipment Benefit – ON LOCATION KNOWLEDGE Benefit – ON LOCATION KNOWLEDGE West winds 15 mph vs.

7 Incident Meteorologists Provide site-specific forecasts with on-location knowledge to help fire managers: Provide site-specific forecasts with on-location knowledge to help fire managers: decide where to move fire crews decide where to move fire crews be aware of incoming weather be aware of incoming weather plan tactics plan tactics provide for firefighter and public safety provide for firefighter and public safety

8 Brief History After deadly 1910 ID and MT wildfires, Forest Service tasked with finding a strategy to effectively fight wildfires After deadly 1910 ID and MT wildfires, Forest Service tasked with finding a strategy to effectively fight wildfires 1914, NWS (Weather Bureau back then) joined the effort, issues first Fire Weather Forecast 1914, NWS (Weather Bureau back then) joined the effort, issues first Fire Weather Forecast 1916, first “mobile” weather unit deployed to a fire: a forecaster and a team of horses to carry the equipment 1916, first “mobile” weather unit deployed to a fire: a forecaster and a team of horses to carry the equipment

9 IMETs Forecast Tools Can deploy rapidly with portable forecast and communications equipment Can deploy rapidly with portable forecast and communications equipment Laptop w/“FX-Net” software, access to models, sat, radar, obs Laptop w/“FX-Net” software, access to models, sat, radar, obs Printer Printer

10 IMETs Forecast Tools Can deploy rapidly with portable forecast and communications equipment Can deploy rapidly with portable forecast and communications equipment BGAN Satellite (when NO comms available) BGAN Satellite (when NO comms available)

11 IMETs Forecast Tools Can deploy rapidly with portable forecast and communications equipment Can deploy rapidly with portable forecast and communications equipment Theodolite and Pilot Balloons (PiBals) Theodolite and Pilot Balloons (PiBals) University of Utah

12 IMETs Forecast Tools Can deploy rapidly with portable forecast and communications equipment Can deploy rapidly with portable forecast and communications equipment Fire Remote Automated Weather Station (FireRAWS) Fire Remote Automated Weather Station (FireRAWS)

13 IMETs Forecast Tools Can deploy rapidly with portable forecast and communications equipment Can deploy rapidly with portable forecast and communications equipment NOAA Weather Radio and Handheld Weather Stations NOAA Weather Radio and Handheld Weather Stations

14 ICP Usually work at or close to the Incident Command Post (ICP) to be available for questions or updates to the forecast. Usually work at or close to the Incident Command Post (ICP) to be available for questions or updates to the forecast. Work alongside the Fire Behavior Analyst, stationed close to the Operations Chief and Staff Work alongside the Fire Behavior Analyst, stationed close to the Operations Chief and Staff

15 Briefings 1-2 daily formal briefings to fire crews, explain the weather scenario before shifts 1-2 daily formal briefings to fire crews, explain the weather scenario before shifts Radio updates to alert of incoming weather or changes to forecast Radio updates to alert of incoming weather or changes to forecast Available all day for requests, spots Available all day for requests, spots Daily planning meetings, develop plan of attack with forecast AND uncertainty Daily planning meetings, develop plan of attack with forecast AND uncertainty

16 Birds Eye View Good for the IMET to get an idea of the terrain they have to forecast for (on-location knowledge) Good for the IMET to get an idea of the terrain they have to forecast for (on-location knowledge) Helicopter flights, lookout points, topographic maps Helicopter flights, lookout points, topographic maps

17 Key Forecasts Relative Humidity Relative Humidity How low can we go? How low can we go? Nighttime recovery Nighttime recovery Trends Trends

18 Key Forecasts Wind Wind Speeds Speeds Direction/Shifts Direction/Shifts Trends Trends

19 Key Forecasts Inversion strength/duration Inversion strength/duration Aviation needs Aviation needs Air quality needs Air quality needs

20 Key Forecasts Highly unstable/convective days Highly unstable/convective days Thunderstorms likely to develop Thunderstorms likely to develop Gusty winds Gusty winds Plume dominated fires could develop Plume dominated fires could develop

21 Conveying Uncertainty Dependant on Incident, Commander, Day, Activity Dependant on Incident, Commander, Day, Activity Briefings Briefings Planning Briefings – resource planning Planning Briefings – resource planning Operational Briefings – firefighter safety, thunderstorm potential Operational Briefings – firefighter safety, thunderstorm potential Operations – windows of opportunity Operations – windows of opportunity Forecasts - Use ranges, within reason Forecasts - Use ranges, within reason Radio Updates Radio Updates

22 Decision Support & Uncertainty Now Now Use current tools, local on-site knowledge Use current tools, local on-site knowledge Keep in touch with surrounding offices and IMETs Keep in touch with surrounding offices and IMETs Give forecast, and uncertainty when requested Give forecast, and uncertainty when requested Resourcefulness!!! Do the best with what we have Resourcefulness!!! Do the best with what we have Future Future What could help us provide better support to the Decision Makers?.......................... What could help us provide better support to the Decision Makers?..........................

23 Everyone loves GIS! GIS Integration GIS Integration Possible re-write of FXNET (java based) into a zoomable GIS services application Possible re-write of FXNET (java based) into a zoomable GIS services application Could overlay data utilizing geodatabase Could overlay data utilizing geodatabase Obs, sat, radar, fire weather forecast layers, model data, etc… Obs, sat, radar, fire weather forecast layers, model data, etc… Have zoomable capabilities that integrate elevation terrain/topo and street Have zoomable capabilities that integrate elevation terrain/topo and street

24 Models and Observations MORE OBS! MORE OBS! Fires are in remote areas…nearest obs sites usually 10’s-100’s of miles away Fires are in remote areas…nearest obs sites usually 10’s-100’s of miles away Allow for a better handle of weather situation Allow for a better handle of weather situation Con: $$$$ need less expensive solution than FireRAWS for coverage Con: $$$$ need less expensive solution than FireRAWS for coverage Higher Resolution Models over Burn Area Higher Resolution Models over Burn Area Could start as IMET is ordered to fire Could start as IMET is ordered to fire Could have daily+ update/inputs from local obs Could have daily+ update/inputs from local obs Con: lots of man/computer power Con: lots of man/computer power

25 Mobile Applications Mobile accessibility of information Mobile accessibility of information Already happening (weather channel, local news, etc)….sometimes conflicting Already happening (weather channel, local news, etc)….sometimes conflicting Could send out OUR forecasts/updates/weather warnings/graphics Could send out OUR forecasts/updates/weather warnings/graphics Con: Remote areas…not much mobile coverage Con: Remote areas…not much mobile coverage FX-NET’s capability FX-NET’s capability Augment displays/plots and export to various sources Augment displays/plots and export to various sources Could have daily+ update/inputs from local obs Could have daily+ update/inputs from local obs Con: lots of man/computer power Con: lots of man/computer power

26 Thank You Lisa Kriederman Forecaster/Incident Meteorologist(T) National Weather Service Boulder lisa.kriederman@noaa.gov 303-494-3877

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