Melissa Finucane PRiMO Workshop, March 16, 2010 Public Perceptions of Risk: Thinking and Feeling Our Way through a Complex World

How do people make decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty? Fundamental Question

Decision Making under Uncertainty: Tricky Questions Are communities’ reactions to risk legitimate? Why do people’s perceptions differ? Why do differences persist, despite education? Fatality Risk 5 x 10 -6

Practical Importance To articulate gaps between different stakeholder values To facilitate risk debates and communications To improve decision processes and outcomes To reduce global conflict via governance agreements that have cross-cultural legitimacy and a sense of ownership for all involved

Theoretical Importance: Sound Models Accurately describe underlying processes Allow for and explain individual and group differences Generalize across risk domains Predict how DM, task, and context characteristics influence risk perceptions and behavioral responses

Dimensions of Risk UNKNOWN DREADED KNOWN NOT DREADED Source: Slovic 1987

Attitudes Toward Regulation of Hazards The larger the point the greater the desire for strict regulation to reduce risk

Climate Risk Personalities? Climate ChangeHurricanesDrought Unknown  Unobservable  Unfamiliar  Delayed consequences  Catastrophic potential 

Differences in Risk Preferences Chinese less risk averse than Americans (Hsee & Weber, 1999; Weber & Hsee, 1998) Cushion hypothesis  More help available in a socially collectivist society so more risky gambles OK  Less risk aversion among Chinese only for investment decisions  Risk preferences related to size and quality of social networks

What’s going on? Differences in social structure and social practice Temporary effects of orientation on perception But is it possible to move people from one orientation to another?

Risks tend to be judged as lower by men than women  e.g., nuclear power, war, living near soil pollution/ chemical plant Poorly understood  difficult to isolate effects of gender and race from covarying sociopolitical factors U.S. National Phone Surveys: Gender, Race, and Perceived Risk

Expert Differences (British Society of Toxicologists) Percent female moderate and high- risk responses minus perception male moderate- and high- risk responses from Slovic et al. (1997)

Flynn et al.: The “white-male” effect Mean risk perception ratings by race and gender (Flynn et al., 1994)

Results: Food risk perceptions Mean risk perception ratings by race and gender (Finucane et al., 2000)

Risk Perceptions Reflect Deep-Seated Values People with low risk perceptions are more likely:  to agree with statements reflecting hierarchical views “When a risk is very small, it is OK for society to impose that risk on individuals without their consent”  to disagree with egalitarian statements “The world needs more equal distribution of wealth”  to disagree with community-based decision making “People living near a nuclear power plant should be able to vote and to close the plant if they think it is not being run safely”

Policy Implications Different worldviews matter because they determine which approach to safety will be supported Sheehy et al (1996):  Hierarchists prefer expert groups  Egalitarians prefer personal choice and endorse labeling  All want to be involved in DM, but some more willing to trust the judgment of others

Six Americas (Leiserowitz, Maibach, Roser-Renouf, 2010)

Conservation Behaviors AlmdCncndCtsDsngdDbtflDsmsv Reuse/ recycle Use less A/C Use as little water as possible

But that’s not the whole picture (Johnson & Goldstein, 2003)

Why the difference? Check the box below if you want to participate in the organ donor program. Check the box below if you don’t want to participate in the organ donor program. Opt In Opt Out People don’t check the box… and join People don’t check the box… and don’t join

A real-world example, kind of Attentional blindness (Dan Simon) When primed to look for one thing, we might miss something else. How can we overcome this?

22 Source: Adapted from Epstein, Analytic SystemExperiential System 1. Analytic1. Holistic 2. Logical: Reason oriented (what is sensible) 2. Affective: Pleasure-pain oriented 3. Logical connections3. Associationistic connections 4. Behavior mediated by conscious appraisal of events 4. Behavior mediated by “ vibes ” from past experiences 5. Encodes reality in abstract symbols, words, and numbers 5. Encodes reality in concrete images, metaphors, and narratives 6. Slower processing: Oriented toward delayed action 6. More rapid processing: Oriented toward immediate action 7. Requires justification via logic and evidence 7. Self-evidently valid: “ experiencing is believing ” Two Modes of Processing

Dual-Process Models Analytic and affective processes  Work in partnership to identify and prioritize experiences that are valued positively (pursued) or negatively (avoided)  Comprehensively govern the valuation of risk information in order to maintain a particular way of life

Statistical Lives  Food shortages in Malawi are affecting more than 3 million children  In Zambia, severe rainfall deficits have resulted in a 42 percent drop in maize production from As a result, an estimated 3 million Zambians face hunger  Four million Angolans—one third of the population—have been forced to flee their homes Identifiable Lives Any money that you donate will go to Rokia, a 7-year-old girl from Malawi, Africa. Rokia is desperately poor, and faces a threat of severe hunger or even starvation. Her life will be changed for the better as a result of your financial gift. With your support, and the support of other caring sponsors, Save the Children will work with Rokia’s family and other members of the community to help feed her, provide her with education, as well as basic medical care and hygiene education. Source: Small, Loewenstein, & Slovic (2007) Donating money to save statistical and identified lives

Donations Statistical Lives Identifiable Life Identifiable Life with Statistics

Crocker Bay, Canada by Spencer Wynn “This thought-provoking photo [was taken] in August along the Northwest Passage in Canada’s high Arctic waters. “This scene not only was beautiful, but also spoke volumes on the subject of global warming” he says.”

How do we Make Information Meaningful?

What Does All this Mean? Risk communication is a process of translation Pay attention to context (culture, hazard information, affect) Risk communication/management strategies need to accommodate diverse and often subtle cultural values and psychological processes