1. Perceived Risk and Anthropogenic Environmental Change
Melissa Finucane
East-West Center Alumni Conference July 5, 2010

2. Problem Statement
What socio-cultural and psychological factors influence perceptions of risk?

3. Practical Importance
To articulate gaps between different stakeholder views, values, and decision processes
To facilitate risk debates and communications
To improve decision processes and outcomes
To develop risk management strategies that have a sense of ownership and improve disease management

4. Theoretical Importance: Sound Models
Accurately describe underlying processes
Allow for and explain individual and group differences
Generalize across risk domains
Predict how decision-maker, task, and context characteristics influence risk perceptions and behavioral responses

5. Empirical Research on the Perceived Risk of HPAI
Most research done in Western countries
Focus on AI in humans (rather than poultry)
Studies in Asia show perceived risk correlated with:
Gender (women perceive more risk)
Age (older people perceive more risk)
Efficacy (greater ability to protect related to lower perceived risk)
Control (higher perceived personal control related to lower PR)
Trust in public authorities
Protective behavior more likely with:
Higher education
Urban living
Knowledge of HPAI
Owning poultry

6. Perceptions of HPAI Risk in Poultry
Example studies:
Thailand (urban, suburban, rural), Takeuchi (2006)
Laos (urban, semi-urban, rural), Barennes et al. (2007)
Cambodia (rural), Ly et al. (2007)
Findings
Limited awareness
Limited reporting
Support for reporting
Optimistic bias
Dead poultry buried, eaten, thrown away, used as feed, sold/given away

7. Phase II: Risk Perception Hypotheses
H0: Perceived risk not related to setting.
H1a: Perceived risk correlated with setting (à la Kuznets: highest in transitional setting).
H1b: Perceived risk correlated with setting (à la risk society: highest in most modern setting) because feelings of trust and control are eroded.
H2: A significant amount of setting-related RP variance can be accounted for by socio-ecological and socio-psychological (efficacy, affect, worldviews, etc) factors

8. Focus Groups, Bac Ninh Province, May 2010
N=43 village leaders, small farmers, large operators
Diverse mental models of disease transmission
Awareness of risk factors
Fears of impact on livelihoods
Awareness of role of transition
Differences in perceived effectiveness of vaccinations

9. Phase II: Household Survey
In each of 4 agroecological zones in the North, sample 3 communes in each stage of transition (36 communes), limited to communes where birds have died from AI
In each commune, randomly choose 30 households to administer a survey to heads of households (1080 total respondents).
Items measuring perceived risk and related constructs:
Perceived risk
Protective behaviors
Efficacy
Knowledge
Worldviews, values, trust