1 Status of Global Wind Power World Energy Solutions Conference Sao Paulo 23 November 2007 Steve Sawyer Secretary General Global Wind Energy Council.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Status of Global Wind Power World Energy Solutions Conference Sao Paulo 23 November 2007 Steve Sawyer Secretary General Global Wind Energy Council

2 GWEC: Uniting the Global Wind Industry Associations: Companies:

3 Overview Massive investment in renewables globally; wind getting the lion’s share of asset investment; Wind power growth rate globally continues very strong – at the upper range (or above) projections; Industry becoming global – European dominance lessening Massive investment in new manufacturing capacity – China and the US - but supply still lags demand; Climate Imperative – eyes on 2020

4 Global Cumulative Installed Capacity

5 -> Growth in 2006: 25.6%

6 Top 10 Cumulative Installed Capacity

7 Spain and US neck and neck

8 Top 10 Cumulative Installed Capacity Spain and US neck and neck China on 6 th place (up from 8 th )

9 Top 10 Cumulative Installed Capacity Down from 87.6% in 2005 Spain and US neck to neck China on 6 th place (up from 8 th )

10 Global Annual Installed Capacity

11 Global Annual Installed Capacity > Growth in 2006: % (2005: %), despite supply chain difficulties

12 Top 10 New Installed Capacity 2006

13 Top 10 New Installed Capacity 2006 New in top 10 China 2 nd in 2007? Down from 86.9% in 2005

14 Annual Installed Capacity by Region 50.1% 21.3% 1.9%1.3%0.7% 24.2%

15 Global Development to 2050

16 % of Global Electricity Supply 1500 million tonnes of CO2/annum After 2 years, actual performance is ahead of Advanced Scenario

17 Conclusions Advanced Scenario is closest to reality at the moment; 2006/07 ahead of advanced scenario; Growth rates since 2000 have averaged 28%. Capital costs: demand and commodity markets driving prices up…and will continue to as long as there’s very high demand and more investor interest than available projects; China and US becoming major markets – US firmly in place as market leader – expected to install 4 GW in 2007; China exceeding advanced scenario, will meet its 2010 target this year; Three dominant markets: China, US, Europe.

18 Conclusions (2) Impact of Climate Policy: Imperative for global emissions peak prior to 2020; Power sector is largest source of emissions - 38% of CO2, and about 25% of overall emissions; In practical terms, there are 3 options for making major emissions reductions in the power sector out to 2020: Efficiency; Fuel switching from coal to gas; and Wind Power; Wind energy is most cost-effective and timely option on the supply side out to 2020; Post 2012 carbon market design will have major impact; Will 2600 Twh/year be sufficient?

19 Thank you For more information: Steve Sawyer