2. Oliver Schaefer Policy Advisor EREC - European Renewable Energy Council Renewable Energy Development and Prospects – an Industry Point of View -2010-2020-2040

3. Will the White Paper Targets Be Achieved? 2010 TYPE OF ENERGY 1995 EUROSTAT 2001 EUROSTAT ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 1995-2001 % WHITE PAPER TARGETS 2010 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE NEEDED 2001-2010 % 1. Wind2.5 GW17.2 GW37.940 GW9.8 2. Hydro87.1 GW91.7 GW0.9100 GW1.0 3. Photovoltaics0.04 GWp0.26 GWp36.63 GWp31.2 4. Biomass44.8 Mtoe56.5 Mtoe3.6135 Mtoe10.3 5. Geothermal2.72 Mtoe3.43 Mtoe3.95.2 Mtoe4.7 6. Solar Thermal Collectors 6.5 Mio m 2 11.4 Mio m 2 9.8100 Mio m 2 27.2 … yes, if specific support actions are taken soon for some technologies. Some of the targets must be revised.

4. Average Annual Growth Rate (AGR) by RE Technology in the EU15

5. Evaluation of Development Rates of RES up to the Present Hydro, Geothermal & PV: –Development rates as expected –Should reach the targets Biomass & Solar Collectors: –Development rates below expectations –Reaching the targets seems problematic Wind Energy: –Development rates largely above expectations –Should exceed target The possible overestimation of biomass and solar collector targets could be balanced by the possible underestimation of wind energy

6. 2000TARGETS 2010TARGETS 2020 TYPE OF ENERGY Eurostat Conventio n % of total Eurostat Convention % of total Eurostat Convention % of total Total Gross Inland Consumption 1,455 1,576 (trends to 2030) 1,576 1. Wind1.920.1314.40.91382.4 2. Hydro27.61.930.61.94332.1 3. Photovoltaics0.010.30.023.60.2 4. Biomass54.53.73125.57.9620513.0 5. Geothermal3.320.226.20.412.40.8 6. STC0.380.0230.2241.5 Total Renewable Energies 87.86.018011.4331620.0 Contribution of RES to Total Inland Consumption - 2020 Eurostat Convention (Mtoe)

7. 2001-2010 Billion Euro 2011-2020 Billion Euro 2001-2020 Billion Euro Wind55101156 PV106676 Biomass444589 Hydro11920 Geothermal4711 Solar thermal167591 TOTAL RES140303443 Total RES investment (2001 – 2020)

8. 2001-2010 Billion Euro 2001-2020 Billion Euro Wind9.4 – 24.040.2 – 102.8 PV0.2 – 0.52.7 – 6.8 Biomass16.7 – 42.762.6 – 160.1 Hydro2.2 – 5.67.5 – 19.1 Geothermal0.6 – 1.42.5 – 6.3 Solar thermal1.3 – 3.411.2 – 28.8 TOTAL RES30.4 – 77.6126.7 – 323.9 Cumulative Avoided External Costs in the EU15 (2001 – 2020)

9. 2010 Mt/year 2020 Mt/year Wind99236 PV2.224 Biomass176326 Hydro2335 Geothermal5.815 Solar thermal1492 TOTAL RES320728 % of total EU15 CO2 emissions in 20009.6%21.9% Annual CO 2 Emission Reductions due to RES Penetration (2001 – 2020)

10. 2001-2010 Billion Euro 2001-2020 Billion Euro Wind12.963 PV0.24.3 Biomass-- Hydro3.111.5 Geothermal1.57.3 Solar thermal2.329.7 TOTAL RES20.0115.8 Cumulative Avoided Fuel Costs in the EU15 (2001 – 2020)

11. Advanced International Policies Scenario for electricity 2040-Global, TWh

12. Dynamic Current Policies Scenario for electricity 2040 –Global, TWh

13. Advanced International Policies Scenario Annual Cumulative Growth Rates 1996-20012001-20102010-20202020-20302030-2040 Wind33%28%20%7%2% Pv25%28%30%25%13% Biomass8%9%10%8%7% Small hydro6%8%10%8%6% Large hydro2% 1% 0% Geothermal6%12%9%7%5% Solar thermal0% 23%17%15% Marine0% 15%25%20%

14. Dynamic Current Policies Scenario Annual Cumulative Growth Rates 1996-20012001-20102010-20202020-20302030-2040 wind33%25%17%9%4% pv25% 27%22%15% biomass8%7%8%6%5% small hydro6% 8%6%4% large hydro2%1% 0% geothermal6%9%7%5%4% solar thermal0% 20%15%13% marine tech0% 20%15%