19 April 2005 JISAO Review University of Washington Seattle, WA Frank González Leader, Tsunami Research Program National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

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Presentation transcript:

19 April 2005 JISAO Review University of Washington Seattle, WA Frank González Leader, Tsunami Research Program National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Seattle, WA Tsunamis

NOAA/PMEL Tsunami Research Program NOAA Scientists - Frank González - Harold Mofjeld (JISAO Senior Fellow) - Marie Eble - Edison Gica (Post-doc) - Misty Watson (NOAA Corps) JISAO Scientists - Vasily Titov - Diego Arcas - Angie Venturato - Jean Newman - Chris Chamberlin NOAA Scientists - Frank González - Harold Mofjeld (JISAO Senior Fellow) - Marie Eble - Edison Gica (Post-doc) - Misty Watson (NOAA Corps) JISAO Scientists - Vasily Titov - Diego Arcas - Angie Venturato - Jean Newman - Chris Chamberlin

UW Faculty Collaborators Applied Mathematics Randy LeVequeTsunami modeling (under discussion) Applied Physics Laboratory Don Percival (Statistics)Time series analysis, data assimilation, statistics Oceanography Mark L. HolmesPuget Sound tsunamis, landslide processes H. Paul JohnsonTidal effects of hydrothermal systems Jeffrey D. ParsonsPuget Sound tides and tidal datums William S.D. WilcockTidal effects of hydrothermal systems Earth and Space Sciences Derek Booth (Civ. Env. Eng.)Puget Sound faults Jody BourgeoisTsunami inundation; paleotsunamis Kenneth CreagerFaults, earthquakes; seismic seiches Steve MaloneEarthquakes; seismic seiches Anthony QamarFaults, earthquakes; seismic seiches

State Agencies Alaska California Hawaii Oregon Washington Federal Agencies National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin. U.S. Geological Survey Federal Emergency Management Agency U.S. N ational T sunami H azard M itigation P rogram Reduce the Impact of Tsunamis on U.S. Coastal Communities Frank González, NOAA TIME Center, PMEL, Seattle, WA

Recent Accomplishment 26 Dec 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami 26 Dec 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Demonstrated & interpreted global distribution patterns Model Simulations and Tide Gage time series Primary physics: Seismic line-source characteristics; World coastline reflections; Mid-ocean ridge wave guides

26 Dec 04 Tsunami Simulation (Vasily Titov, Diego Arcas)

Recent Accomplishment Developed Tsunami Forecasting System Methodology Developed Tsunami Forecasting System Methodology -Integrates real-time Measurement & Modeling technologies -Will improve speed and reliability of Tsunami Warnings -Prototype tested and available -Valuable research tool -Operational version under development 1. Real-time Tsunami & Seismic Data 2. Model Database 3. Site-specific Forecasts

Example of Tsunami Forecast: 17 Nov 2003 M w =7.5 3cm -3 3cm -3 Q: How would you interpret these data ?

3cm -3 3cm -3 Example of Tsunami Forecast: 17 Nov 2003 A: Operational Forecast Model Q: How would you interpret these data ?

1. Pre-computed Nested Grid Database of Offshore Values 2. Provides Initial Conditions for Real-time Inundation Simulation (~10 Minutes) Hilo Tide Gage Hilo Tide Gage

Result: “Blind” Forecast at Hilo

Tsunami FcstModMap

U.S. Plan

Summary NOAA/PMEL Tsunami Research Program Collaborative PMEL/JISAO Effort Research on Tsunami Dynamics Focus on Numerical Modeling National Significance Reduce Tsunami Hazard and Threat to U.S. Coastal Communities