FTA South East Asia Tariff removal in SEA (Presented by Sarfraz and Eric) Scenario 1 : China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Rest of SEA Scenario 1 : China,

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Presentation transcript:

FTA South East Asia Tariff removal in SEA (Presented by Sarfraz and Eric) Scenario 1 : China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Rest of SEA Scenario 1 : China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Rest of SEA Extension : restriction of FTA to priority commodities for India Extension : restriction of FTA to priority commodities for India Scenario 2: India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Rest of SEA (without China) Scenario 2: India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Rest of SEA (without China) Extension : restriction of FTA (without China) to priority commodities for India Extension : restriction of FTA (without China) to priority commodities for India

FTA all commodities GDP, Exports and Welfare Variables FTA with China FTA no China GDP (qgdp) INDIA CHINA Welfare (total) INDIA CHINA Volume of total exp (qxwreg) INDIA CHINA Volume of total import (qiwreg) INDIA CHINA

Results for FTA Scenario 1 and 2 : for all commodities, Scenario 1 and 2 : for all commodities, - GDP : No change in GDP for China, whereas there is more gain for India if China is excluded from FTA - Exports : Increasing of export for India for all commodities in both scenario, however, less increasing (on average) if China is excluded from FTA - Welfare : the total welfare turns to be in favor of India when China is excluded from FTA  For India, exclusion of China from FTA, looks more beneficiary for India

Priority Commodities 1- PDR : Paddy rice 2- WHT : Wheat 3- SGR : Sugar 4- VOL : Vegetable oils and fats 5- PCR : Processed rice These crops are more beneficially for India on the base total volume of export Other commodities Manufacturing, Services, Livestock, and rest of agr. commodities

FTA in priority commodities GDP, Exports and Welfare Variables Scenario 1 (priority commodities) Scenario 2 Scenario 2 (priority commodities) GDP (qgdp) INDIA CHINA Exports (average, qxs) INDIA CHINA Welfare (total) INDIA CHINA

Results for FTA, restricted to priority commodities Extensions Extensions - The result is more interesting in case of India if FTA is restricted to the priority commodities - No change (or very little) in GDP, Export increasing rate (in term of average) and Welfare for India, whether China is in FTA or not - The result indicates that India turns out to get the highest total welfare