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Comments on presentation by Ruslan Yemtsov and Ugo Gentilini Antoine Bouët– IFPRI and University of Bordeaux The World Bank – Washington DC, September,

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Presentation on theme: "Comments on presentation by Ruslan Yemtsov and Ugo Gentilini Antoine Bouët– IFPRI and University of Bordeaux The World Bank – Washington DC, September,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Comments on presentation by Ruslan Yemtsov and Ugo Gentilini Antoine Bouët– IFPRI and University of Bordeaux The World Bank – Washington DC, September, 18-19 2014 Food Price Volatility, Food Security and Trade Policy

2 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Food Price Volatility, Food Security and Trade Policy The State of Social Safety Nets 2014 A brilliant contribution to the debate An amazing piece of work Point of departure: key questions Several questions Characterization of countries Superiority of cash transfers and economic environment Permanent SSN: cost/impact on agents Page 2

3 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Debate with respect to export restrictions SSN: 1 st order policy Export restrictions have recently received consideration: They have a negative impact on local production in the short term… and in the long term Export taxes interesting in countries with small fiscal base: not a valid point Beggar-thy-neighbor policy; Process of retaliation and counter-retaliation: increased export taxes/reduction of import duties SSN may also amplify supply shocks but by a much lesser extent Page 3 Food Price Volatility, Food Security and Trade Policy

4 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 2. An illustration with MIRAGE CountryETETITETIT0 Australia164719 India194621 Canada185225 United States 205227 Argentina195025 Russia255737 Ukraine2050 Additional export taxes (%) Page 4

5 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 2. An illustration with MIRAGE World prices (% changes compared to baseline) SectorBaseETITIT0ETITETIT0 Wheat10.8416.7627.3112.6241.1020.58 Dairy products0.040.050.000.020.030.04 Livestock0.190.210.180.130.240.17 Meat0.070.080.06 0.07 Oilseeds0.090.060.090.080.050.04 Other crops0.160.170.180.120.180.13 Other food0.040.08-0.040.000.04 Paddy and processed rice0.210.130.320.200.100.11 Plant fiber0.130.110.140.100.130.09 Sugar0.140.120.200.120.160.10 Vegetable and fruits0.200.210.250.140.270.14 Vegetal oil0.01 -0.010.00 Page 5

6 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE 2. An illustration with MIRAGE Welfare impact of various scenarios (% changes compared to baseline) For each country/region the columns represent successively the following scenarios: 1 - Base; 2 - ET; 3 - IT ; 4 – IT0; 5 – ETIT; 6 – ETIT0 Page 6

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