Linking Trade, Climate Change and Food Security in East Africa By Julien Grollier

The challenge ahead Food security Global warming Way forward one of the main challenges in East Africa Global warming will change agricultural and trade patterns add an additional 600 million hungry people by 2080 in sub-Saharan Africa Way forward Harnessing the potential of trade to ensure affordable food for millions of people Putting in place appropriate policies to achieve this Need of the hour Develop understanding of how climate change, food security and trade interact

Food Security and Agriculture in East Africa The region is Has a huge potential and capacity to produce enough food for regional consumption and a large surplus for export to the world market YET, it is Heavily dependent on agriculture sector for revenue, employment and food security Frequently affected by serious food shortages Paradoxically, while 8 in 10 people rely on agriculture for their living, about 4 in 10 are undernourished High variability in production due to high variability of weather (climate change) Inadequate food trade between surplus and deficit areas Low agricultural productivity Price volatility Land availability and access 8 in 10 East Africans depend on agriculture for their living 19% 31% SOME CAUSES 38% 66% 44% SHARE OF POPULATION UNDERNOURISHED IN EAC COUNTRIES

State of Food Security and Agriculture in East Africa Some Indicators

Food Trade in East Africa EVOLUTION OF EAC TRADE IN CEREALS (2003-2007) EAC region is increasingly dependent on cereal imports. Positive total Balance of Payment is due to production of export crops like tea, coffee, horticulture etc. SHARE OF INTRAREGIONAL FOOD TRADE IN TOTAL There is potential for much greater intra-regional food trade, particularly when it can contribute to better regional food security in the food scarce regions

Implications of climate change in the region Expected impact of climate change in the region include: More floods and droughts Increased sea levels leading to changed ecology of coastal areas Altered eco-systems of lakes leading to less fish catches Less supportive conditions for the production of current staple food crops Less agricultural and food production, leading to higher prices Changes in patterns of production, including in fisheries, and hence changing patterns of trade However, some specific studies indicate that the impact of climate change may be positive and negative depending on the crops.

Implications of climate change in the region Climate change will change the pattern and magnitude of precipitation leading to changing patterns of production and trade. The poor and marginalized, both rural and urban, are expected to face the worst consequences. CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY INDEX 2011 Source: Maplecroft

Trade: part of the solution ? Opportunities for Food Security Increased availability and affordability of staple food Generation of export revenue from non-food products will facilitate food imports for food scarce regions Increased livelihood options and demand for labour and business opportunities in transport, processing, trading, etc Greater production efficiencies and lower prices for both urban and rural consumers.

Trade: part of the solution ? Opportunities for Food Security Niche export crops are labour intensive and create new livelihoods for poor producers despite climate change WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) allows expenditure by developing country governments to maintain food security stocks (not treated as a subsidy) Gradual liberalization of services in developing countries under GATS can facilitate the availability of better infrastructural services, thus improving competitiveness

Trade: part of the solution ? Opportunities for Climate Change trade can be part of the climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies e.g, by encouraging trade in organic products, use of energy-efficient transportation, increasing regional trade etc. trade can increase the availability of resources and technologies to plan and implement mitigation and adaptation policies The linkages between trade and climate change are little understood and need to be investigated

Trade: Some challenges to be addressed Subsidized food production in OECD countries are allowed by the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) and can depress international food prices discourages investment in EAC food production cheap food imports can displace domestic production, particularly by small and subsistence farmers. Trade liberalization measures might lead to immediate increase in imports rather than exports

Trade: Some challenges to be addressed Increased exports can disproportionately affect subsistence farmers, mostly women Lower revenues through customs duties might reduce resources to deal with food security challenges climate change challenges Higher volumes of trade can directly contribute to larger greenhouse gas emissions

Trade: Some challenges to be addressed The linkages between trade and climate change are little understood and need to be investigated No mandatory provision against export prohibitions in AoA, whereby a country willing to ensure domestic food security impacts that of other countries negatively Strict global standards for patents and lack of protection of bio-diversity, genetic resources and traditional knowledge under the TRIPs Agreement can potentially impede the transfer of required mitigation/adaptation technologies to EAC countries at affordable prices.

EAC Institutional and Policy framework EAC countries are conscious of the challenges related to food security , climate change and trade. They have strived to develop regional policies to deal with them, including: EAC Common Market Protocol, which entered into force in July 2010. It provides for free movement of labour, goods, services, capital, and the right of establishment within the EAC. Preparations towards the establishment of an East African Monetary Union by 2012 The EAC Food Security Action Plan (2011-2015), which serves as a guide to the implementation and actualization of the regional food security objective The EAC Climate Change Policy, which is being implemented A Climate Change Master Plan and Strategy is being prepared

Remaining gaps and Capacity Building Needs No regional policy addresses all three issues in an inclusive manner Limited capacity of the EAC Secretariat to comprehensively examine climate change, food security, and trade issues, and hence to develop adequate and holistic policy responses in consultation with relevant stakeholders Region-wide, multi-stakeholder networks (comprising governmental, private sector, civil society, and academia representatives from all EAC countries) that are crucial for this endeavour have not been fully developed

Remaining gaps and Capacity Building Needs Although EAC countries are active participants in international trade and are members of the WTO, they do not formally coordinate their negotiating positions More regular participation of EAC Secretariat in UNFCCC meetings will greatly help in coordination of EAC countries’ positions and hence improving their negotiating strength

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