Building the Resilience of Small States Forum on the Future of the Caribbean 5 – 7 May 2015

Context productivity debt youth unemployment crime Key Challenges borderless economic systems knowledge-intensity of flows on-demand economy climate change Mega Trends

3 Risk = Risk of an economy being harmed by an external economic shocks Vulnerability (adds to risk) EXPOSURE Inherent features of an economy rendering it exposed to external shocks Inherent Features ● Trade openness ● Export Concentration ● Dependence on strategic imports ● Proneness to natural disasters - Resilience (reduces risk) COPING ABILITY Policy-induced measures that enable an economy to withstand external shocks Policy Measures ● Macroeconomic Stability ● Market flexibility (adjusted for financial riskiness ● Good governance ● Social development ● Environmental management A Vulnerability Resilience Framework

Where will we be by 2050?

Looking Ahead: 2050 Where will the region be in 2050? The Bahamas Barbados Grenada Guyana Jamaica St. Lucia Trinidad and Tobago

Looking Ahead: Policy Model

Looking Ahead: Real Consumption Projections

Looking Ahead: Debt Projections

Looking Ahead: Crime

Looking Ahead: CO 2 Emissions

Looking Ahead: Resilience Index

Is this the future we want?

Some potential visions of the future Creative and enterprising economies in which innovation is the driver of productivity Youth fully integrated into national development A stable society where people are safe, secure and prosperous Environmental sustainability mainstreamed in the development process A region built on clean, resilient energy systems that make use of plentiful, local renewable resources and are capable of providing stable supplies of energy to all sectors of its society

A creative and enterprising economy in which innovation is the driver ObjectivesStrategiesActions To increase total factor productivity by 2 per cent per annum Developing human capital- competencies for the knowledge economy Implement regional curriculum reform to build competencies in core & technology –based subjects as well as, problem solving/analytical workplace skills Develop a capability in R & D and increase ICT connectivity To generate 4 % average annual GDP/per capita growth rate Institutional strengthening, financing and marketing arrangements and incubation Target SMEs and enterprising firms for financial assistance Diversify markets e.g. expand into Latin America Establish incubation centres To improve the enabling environment for greater private sector participation Strengthening policy implementation, governance, accountability & transparency Organize coaching sessions to build strong partnerships between the public and private sectors and within sectors

A creative and enterprising economy in which innovation is the driver ObjectivesStrategiesActions To advance the development of funds to finance major developments in small states Strategic advocacyDevelop regional approach to advocate for recognition of the vulnerability of small states and need for special consideration Advocate for adherence to the commitments made by small states to ensure due consideration of their issues in development finance criteria

Youth fully integrated into national development ObjectivesStrategiesActions To stimulate creativity at early childhood and primary school levels Re-engineering curriculum & teaching modalities to respond to different intelligences and modalities Engage a team of creativity and curriculum specialists to assess and reform curriculum To increase youth employment by 5 or 10 per cent per annum Talent management and workplace training re- engineering to engender creativity and problem solving aligned to private sector requirements Implement project-based entrepreneurship activities at the secondary level Institute Regional annual art and science fairs Invest in talent programs & innovation skills Provide incentives and awards to enterprising youth

Youth fully integrated into national development Improved youth employability through workplace skills Develop workplace skills programmes to be implemented from the primary level Develop programmes that inculcate cultures of productivity amongst the youth Establish a broad-based system of internship across the Region that funds youth exchanges to private sector entities in other cultures to expand their capacity to adapt to new environments To reduce the incidence of violent crime among the youth to negligible levels within 5 years Using a socio-economic developmental approach to crime and violence Adopt a multi-sector approach to youth development

A stable society where people are safe, secure and prosperous ObjectivesStrategiesActions To implement crime prevention measures Early warning systemsBuild institutional links between families, social services, youth organizations, clubs, CBOs & NGOs To pursue ongoing human developmental approach to crime and violence Poverty reduction, settlement and development plans Social inclusion and cohesion Reinvigorate and integrate the plans for poverty reduction, settlement and development plans to improve implementation Build strong family and community networks

A stable society where people are safe, secure and prosperous ObjectivesStrategiesActions To reduce the homicide rates to 4 – 5 per 100,000 Effective policing and justice systems Strengthen security capabilities Share intelligence through databases within the Caribbean and with partners To build resilience to natural hazards Planning and zoning systemsMove core government functions & population centres from vulnerable areas

Environmental sustainability mainstreamed in the development process ObjectivesStrategiesActions To generate 10% annual increase in value added from responsibly developed environmental products Development of the green and blue economy Develop plans and seek financing Implement modern waste management practices To reduce vulnerability and improve resilience to natural disasters Mitigation and adaptation to climate change Build defences in vulnerable areas e.g. shorelines & land slide prone areas Source & pool financing Develop and implement regional projects that target globally available funds that support adaptation efforts

A region built on clean, resilient energy systems that make use of plentiful, local renewable resources and are capable of providing stable supplies of energy to all sectors of its society ObjectivesStrategiesActions To promote energy security & resilience through 100% renewables by 2050 Cost-effective renewable energy production Enact national energy regulation appropriate to renewables Establish national renewable energy & energy efficiency policies Facilitate access to low-cost capital Promote local investment & ownership Reduce impediments & risks to investors To minimize environmental loss/footprints Develop systems to ensure that economic and social development does not increase environmental issues

* SIDS Innovation Resilience Index (Peterson, 2010) Caribbean Private Sector Pathways: Creating New Frontiers with Innovation Resilience

Looking Ahead: Increased Productivity Growth

Looking Ahead: Increased Productivity and Fiscal Reform

Looking Ahead: Citizen Security

Looking Ahead: Energy Costs

Looking Ahead: Resilience Index

Looking Ahead What is the Caribbean you want? What do you think is needed to get us there? What do you think are the game changers that will put the region on the higher development trajectory?

The End