Counting Crime Methods for Counting Crime? Current Crime Numbers/Trends Explaining the Crime Drop

Methods of Measuring Crime Uniform Crime Reports Self- Report Surveys Victim Surveys

Uniform Crime Reports Based on Crimes Reported to the Police Based on a population unit of 100,000 people Divided into two representative categories: Indexed and non-Indexed Reported for U.S., Cities, and SMSA’s Crimes known / Arrest = Clearance Rate

Uniform Crime Reports Violent Crime Non-violent Crime Part I “Index” Crimes Criminal Homicide Forcible Rape Robbery Aggravated assault Burglary Larceny/theft Motor vehicle theft Arson Part II Crimes All others except traffic Non-violent Crime

Criticisms and Limitations of the UCR Cannot capture the “dark figure” of crime Methodological Hiccups Counting Rule Reporting Practices Attempted vs. Completed Crimes

The Future of the Uniform Crime Reports National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) Maintained by the F.B.I. Twenty-two crime categories More information on each crime in each category Data compiled based on incidents, not arrests.

Self-Report Surveys Get at “Dark Figure of Crime” “Victimless Crimes” Participants (usually juveniles) reveal information about their violations of the law Advantages Get at “Dark Figure of Crime” “Victimless Crimes” Compare to “official data” Measure theoretical concepts and connect with criminal behavior

Self-Report Surveys Disadvantages May underestimate “chronic offenders” People Can Lie Survey Methodology Problems Seriousness of Offense

National Crime Victimization Survey 1. Asks victims about their encounters with criminals 2. Nationally representative sample 3. May also describe people most at risk 4. Limitations: Little information about offenders Cannot assess some crimes Limitations of Survey Research

REVIEW UCR Self-report NCVS Aggregate Data (see trends), Crimes known to police Self-report Individual level data, links offender characteristics to criminal offending NCVS Aggregate Data (see trends), victimizations

Crime Trends and Correlates of Crime Is crime increasing, decreasing or stable? Why? Correlates of Crime What factors are related to crime? Geographic location, Age, Race, Gender, Social Class?

Crime Trends UCR and NCVS data reveal a steady decrease in violent crime since the mid 1990s The decrease is being driven by a sharp decline in violent crime among juveniles. NCVS indicates a long term trend of decreasing property crime Some difference with UCR data

Duluth Violent Crime 1986-2000

Duluth Violent Crime 1986-2010

MN vs. National Violent Crime (per 100,000 citizens)

Explaining Crime Trends The usual suspects Age Composition The Economy Social malaise Guns—Availability Justice Policy—Police or Prisons Reality? Difficult to predict trends

The Crime Drop (1990s-present) Again, think young males in inner city areas Decline of the “Crack Cocaine” wars The “blunt” era Change in inner city culture Mass incarceration Freakonomics: Was it Abortion?

Correlates of Crime Demographics Age Sex Race

GENDER AND CRIME UCR, NCVS, and SR data all indicate that females are more likely than males to commit criminal acts Socialization? Biological differences? Feminist explanations

RACE AND CRIME SR weak if any relationship Official data  strong relationship Is relationship due to bias? How police patrol and interact with minorities Disparity in how CJS processes minorities? NCVS data confirms some “true” race-crime relationship. Why does race predict crime? Relationship to class, neighborhood, culture

The Age-Crime Curve

Age and Crime Crime is “young” persons game HOWEVER There is a group of “chronic” offenders that persist in crime after adulthood The “Chronic” 6%

Continuity of Crime Cohort studies clearly show that most chronic juvenile offenders continue their law-violating careers as adults. Then and ………….. NOW

Crime Victimization Criminals and victims tend to look the same demographically Most crime is intraracial Victimization for most crimes most likely among Young Male Urban

What is counted counts We have no “UCR” mechanism to gauge white collar crime How to assess insider trading, environmental crimes, corporate crime? Most large corporate crime prosecutions in in a settlement