1. Week 2: The Problem of Crime
 To deal effectively with crime we need good info about:
What kinds of crimes are happening
How much they are occurring
Who is involved in them
Where & when they are likely to happen
How do we get this information?
The “crime data problem”

2.  How to get empirical crime data
 How to get empirical crime data? Different info sources on social events
Official records (of criminal cases)
Surveys (of people’s experiences)
Observations (of criminal events)
Other sources (of information about criminal persons or events)
 Mostly emphasize the first two (for estimating crime trends and patterns)

3. A. Official Records of crime cases
Police  Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)
Police records of “crimes reported” and “arrests made”
From statistics reported to the FBI by police depts.
Note Division of UCR into 2 categories:
Part I: the “Index” Crimes (Crimes known + Arrests)
Part II: the “other” crimes (all other offenses) (Arrests)
UCR = “aggregate” (group-level) reports
Problems  only include recorded crimes
Selective reporting (to police and by police)
“Hierarchy rule” undercounts
Non-reporting of many crimes (“dark figure”)
NIBRS = incident-level reports (recent alternative to traditional UCR)

4. Official Records (continued)
 Other types of official records?
Court records (cases filed & adjudications)
Juvenile courts
Administrative/regulatory courts
Correctional records (data on outcomes)
Data on hard-core vs. lesser offenders
 These all represent only “processed” cases
 Beyond Official records = “Semi-official records” from other agencies (e.g., ERs, fire depts, social services [DFSC], insurance companies, stores, security firms)

5. B. Surveys as 2nd major source of crime data
How do surveys differ from records?
Sample from population
Questionnaire or interview of responders
2 Kinds of surveys used for crime data
Victimization Surveys
Self-Report Surveys

6. B. Surveys (of potential victims & offenders)
“Victimization” or “Victim” surveys
Survey of population re: victimization
Official victim survey = NCVS (BJS)
Unofficial surveys (for special crimes)
“Self-report” surveys
Juvenile delinquency
Victimless crimes (e.g., drugs)
“Ordinary crimes”
Chronic offenders

7. Comparing sources of crime data:
Surveys vs. Official records
Strengths & weaknesses of records?
It’s always being collected and it’s official
Biases & errors?
Strengths & weaknesses of surveys?
More detailed info & unrecorded crimes
Which kind of data is best?

8. Other Data Sources for Crime?
Observations (natural or contrived)
Other possibilities
Life Histories
Case studies & field studies
Historical documents
Media accounts
Personal experiences

9. According to the available crime data: What crimes occur & how often?
Part I crimes & Part II crimes
Other categories of crimes?
Violent Crimes (crimes against persons)
Property Crimes
Public Order Crimes (vice; disorder)
Political Crimes
White-Collar Crimes
Organized Crime

10. Part I (Index) Crimes Murder (nonnegligent homicide)
Aggr. Sexual Assault (Forcible Rape)
Robbery
Aggravated Assault (& Battery)
Burglary
Larceny/Theft
Motor Vehicle Theft
Arson

11. Part I (Index) Crimes Part I Crimes known or reported to police:
About 12% are violent crimes
About 88% are property crimes
Crimes Known vs. Crimes Occurring?
47% of violent crimes are reported to police (54% of serious violence)
40% of property crimes are reported to police
Crimes known vs. arrests made?
46% of reported violent crime result in arrest
17% of reported property crimes result in arrest

12. Crimes Reported to Police

13. Clearances of UCR Crimes

14. Part II Crimes (all other crimes)?
Only arrest statistics reported for these
83% of all arrests involve Part II crimes (17% = Part I arrests)
Largest category = public order crimes (alcohol + drug-related)
Part 2 includes both violent & property crimes, as well as public order crimes
Part 2 crimes cover the whole range of severity (from trivial to lethal acts)
Note: Part 1 and Part 2 do not correspond simply to “serious” and “minor” crimes

15. Are crime rates changing?
Short-term fluctuations = “noise”
Regular cyclical changes?
time of day & seasonal variations
Irregular trends and changes?
Over the centuries?
During last century?
During this century (since 2000)?
Future trends

16. UCR Crime Rates

17. UCR Crime Rates

18. 30-year Trend in UCR Murder Rates: 1990-2010

19. Trends from 4 Different Data Sources

20. Variations in crime by location?
Where are we at greatest risk?
Regional differences?
Urban-rural differences?
Public spaces
Residential locations
International patterns?
Is the US one of the more crime-ridden countries in the world?

21. Regional Differences in Crime
Violent Crime
Property Crime
Northeast
357
2,116
South
452
3,439
Midwest
363
2,834
West
401
2,887

22. Who commit crimes (usually)?
The Usual comparisons:
Young vs. Older people
Males vs. females
Racial Minorities vs. majorities
Lower vs. middle vs. upper classes

23. Age Differences in Crime
The Universal Age Curve of crime

24. Gender Differences in Crime
Different percentages/ratios of male-to-female involvement in crime
Violence = about 8-to-1 (male/female)
Property = about 3-to-1 (male/female)
Recent changes in female criminality?
Convergence hypothesis  gender rates getting closer
Note differences between property & violence  almost all of convergence occurs in a few property crimes
Problem of relying on arrest data  we can’t separate changes in criminal behavior from changes in police practices

25. Racial Patterns in Crime
Large, persistent Black/White differentials in arrest rates
Other offenses may show different pattern
Violent crimes (including domestic violence)
Property Crimes
Substance Abuse
White-Collar crimes
Organized crimes
Other crime data sources may be different
UCR vs. NCVS vs. Self-report
 The racial picture is more complex if we look at all the data (not just UCR arrests)

26. Social Classes Differences in Crime?
An old idea = hard to document empirically
“Social Class” = difficulty to define precisely
Some offenses show differences by economic level
Violent crimes (but less for domestic violence)
Property Crimes (much smaller differences)
Substance Abuse (inconsistent differences)
White-Collar crimes
Differences depend on crime data sources
Biggest differences in arrest data
Least difference in self-report data
Overall, social class differences are arguable

27. Characteristics of Victims?
How has highest risk of being a victim of crime?
Victims have similar profiles to Offenders
Young
Male
Minority
Poor