Northwest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Outlook Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2012 Water Year Steve King, Sr. Hydrologist Northwest.

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Presentation transcript:

Northwest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Outlook Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2012 Water Year Steve King, Sr. Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center

2011 Runoff Summary April – September Flow Volumes (percent of normal and rank) * *All forcing years weighted equally (no knowledge of La Nina Skagit: 11110/41 Cowlitz: 144 4/41 Willamette: 145 3/41 Rogue: 154 1/41 John Day: 220 1/41 Lower Granite:1514/51 Grande Coulee:1235/51 The Dalles:1354/51 Mica: 9923/51 Libby: 13310/51 Hungry Horse: 161 1/41 Dworshak: 152 5/44 Palisades: 151 2/41 Lucky Peak: 12811/42

La Nina Neutral El Nino Current SST = -0.7 FCST OND SST ~ -.3 and -1.3

WY 2011 Winter Climate Dec Jan Feb Seasonal Precip Monthly Precip Monthly Temp

WY 2011 Spring Climate Seasonal Precip Monthly Precip Monthly Temp Mar Apr May

Verification

2011 Forecast Verification Verification for Verification for 2011

Spring 2012 Outlook  Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)  Driven by: Antecedent Snow/Soil Moisture 10 day Precip and Temp forecast Precip and Temp climatology ( )  Capability of including climate forecasts/signals

WY 2011 Summer Climate Seasonal Precip Monthly Precip Monthly Temp Aug Sep WY 2012 Oct

Simulated Primary Soil Moisture (percent of average) ESP: Soil States

Simulated Basin Snow Water Equivalent (percent of average) Observed Snow Water Equivalent Overlay= NOAA NOHRSC Satellite Product Depicting Nov 1 st SWE ESP: Snow Water States

10 days of Forecast Precip and Temp, followed by 1948 Precip and Temp 10 days of Forecast Precip and Temp, followed by 1949 Precip and Temp 10 days of Forecast Precip and Temp, followed by 1950 Precip and Temp 10 days of Forecast Precip and Temp, followed by 2003 Precip and Temp..... Deterministic Flow Forecast based on 1948 Forcings Hydro Model (NWS CHPS) Updated to reflect current model states (Soil Moisture, SWE) Deterministic Flow Forecast based on 1949 Forcings Deterministic Flow Forecast based on 1950 Forcings..... Deterministic Flow Forecast based on 2003 Forcings ‘48 ‘03 …………………………………………………………………………………….. ESP Standard Forcings

10 days of Forecast Precip and Temp, followed by 1948 Precip and Temp 10 days of Forecast Precip and Temp, followed by 1949 Precip and Temp 10 days of Forecast Precip and Temp, followed by 1951 Precip and Temp 10 days of Forecast Precip and Temp, followed by 2000 Precip and Temp..... Deterministic Flow Forecast based on 1948 Forcings Hydro Model (NWS CHPS) Updated to reflect current model states (Soil Moisture, SWE) Deterministic Flow Forecast based on 1949 Forcings Deterministic Flow Forecast based on 1951 Forcings..... Deterministic Flow Forecast based on 2000 Forcings ‘48 ‘03 …………………………………………………………………………………….. ESP with La Nina Forcings

ESP Traces Each outcome is equally likely

’72-73 ’71-72 ’76-77 ’96-97 Statistical Analysis of ESP Traces Probability of each outcome plotted

2012 ESP Outlook** Water Supply Apr-Sep Flow Volumes (as % of Normal) * *All forcing years weighted equally (no knowledge of La Nina Mica: 101 Hungry Horse: 103 Libby: 101 Dworshak: 104 Palisades: 100 Lucky Peak: 109 Skagit: 110 Willamette: 111 Rogue: 95 John Day:101 Lower Granite: 109 Grande Coulee: 104 The Dalles: 104

ESP50.ALL= 2900 KAF ESP50.LN = 3550 KAF (22% larger) ESP: All years vs La Nina Years

2012 ESP Outlook Using La Nina Forcings Water Supply Flow Volumes (Apr-Sep) * *All forcing years weighted equally (no knowledge of La Nina Mica: Hungry Horse: Libby: Dworshak: Palisades: Lucky Peak: Skagit: Willamette: Rogue: John Day: Lower Granite: Grande Coulee: The Dalles: Station `48-`03 LN years

NWS Western Region / NWRFC Water Supply Directions  ESP is primary NWS forecast tool (replacing legacy regression model)  Volumetric forecasts issued weekly through year, with daily updates as an option.  NWS Regression Forecasts no longer published  Agency ‘Coordination’ redefined as ‘Collaboration’.