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Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

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Presentation on theme: "Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier."— Presentation transcript:

1 Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington

2 Outline Recap of Water Year 2009 –ENSO conditions and 2008 Streamflow forecast reliability Water year 2010 –Warm ENSO “El Niño Travieso” or the Mischievous Boy –Land-surface conditions: Soil Moisture (SM) and Surface Water Equivalent (SWE) UW-West-wide Seasonal Hydrological Forecast System: Forecasting 2010 streamflow Summary

3 Recap of WY 2008

4 WY 2008 WY 2009 Potential Implications of ENSO Transition States European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range _forecast/nino_plumes_public_s3/

5 ECMRWF ENSO anomaly 2009 0.2 -0.6

6 3.4 Range 2009 -0.6 to 0.2 Ensemble Mean 1961-99 Climatological Mean 1961-99 Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes Observations Ensemble Mean N years Validation Plot for 2009 Forecast (All Neutral ENSO composite) at Dalles

7 Based on Dalles Climatology 1901-2005 All Years Ensemble Mean 1961-99 Climatological Mean 1961-99 Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes Observations Ensemble Mean N years

8 WY 2010 Forecast

9 http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range _forecast/nino_plumes_public_s3/ European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMRWF ENSO anomaly 2010 1.8 0.9 Forecast of September 2009

10 WY 2008 Potential Implications of ENSO Transition States WY 2009WY 2010 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range _forecast/nino_plumes_public_s3/

11 1916-2002 April-September Naturalized Flow for the Columbia River at The Dalles, OR from Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies.

12 The Mischievous Boy or “El Niño Travieso” visits the PNW NOAA, CFS Precipitation Forecast Oct-Nov-Dec Dec-Jan-Feb IRI-Multi-model Probability Precipitation Forecast

13 SWESM 2008 JanuaryJune January 2009

14 Simulated Climatological SWE and SM for the 2008 and 2009 WY SWE SM 20082008 2009

15 WY 2009 Streamflow Forecast

16 USGS Streamflow current status Obtained from http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/

17 Climatological Streamflows (1915-2000) All Years Climatological Mean 1915-2000 Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes Ensemble Mean EN years

18 West-Wide Hydrologic Forecast

19 Initial Conditions (percentiles) SMChange in SM

20 UW Forecast System Less than 10% of the stations are around the Climatology the rest are below at the North of Columbia river basin Around 50% of the stations at the eastern portion of the basin with Stremflows around the climatology In the stations related with hydropower generation at 81% ofthe normal Dalles at 88% of the normal

21 Streamflow Forecast on Dalles 1961-1999 All Years Ensemble Mean 1961-99 Climatological Mean 1961-99 Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes Ensemble Mean EN years

22 3.4 Range 2010 0.9 to 1.8 Based on Dalles Climatology 1961-1999 ESPs Ensemble Mean 1961-99 Climatological Mean 1961-99 Ensemble Members Climatological Extremes Ensemble Mean EN years

23 Streamflow Change Observation 8.4% 12.2% Sep 2009-May 2010

24 Summary Neutral ENSO conditions showed good agreement with climatological and observed streamflows during the Fall-Winter seasons in WY 2009; streamflow forecast during Summer of 2009 was underestimated Conspicuous warm phase of ENSO in addition to dry soil moisture increase the likelihood of below normal streamflows during the WY 2010 over the Columbia river basin Dalles station summarizes the surface hydrology of the Columbia River basin showing streamflows 8 to 12% (on average) below climatological streamflows for the following 9 months.

25 Soil Moisture and Snow Water Anomalies Oct 2008Jan 2009Jun 2009 Sep 2009

26 Soil Moisture and Snow Water Equivalent Percentiles

27 SWE and SM Simulated FebruaryMarchApril Climatological

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