Synthesizing and Integrating Regional Climate Projections into a Local Government Framework: CIMPACT-DST Spencer Reeder – Cascadia Consulting Group Sascha.

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Presentation transcript:

Synthesizing and Integrating Regional Climate Projections into a Local Government Framework: CIMPACT-DST Spencer Reeder – Cascadia Consulting Group Sascha Peterson – Adaptation International Hilary Papendick – City of Seattle / California Coastal Commission Amy Snover – Climate Impacts Group

The Various Roles of Decision Support Tools National Academy of Sciences: America’s Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (2010)

Classification of Decision Support Tools – Guidebooks (CRiSTAL, CIG/ICLEI/King County, StormSmart Coasts) – Climate impact maps & scenario visualization tools (CIG maps, NOAA hazard assessment tool & SLR visualizer, OSU ENVISION, COAST, NatureServe VISTA) – Databases/Clearinghouses (Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange, WeAdapt) – Engagement strategies & methodologies (Coast- Smart Communities, Climate Witness, Scenario Planning)

Simplifying the Process CIMPACT-DST

What Most Decision Makers Want: Upper Extreme Best Estimate Lower Extreme Impact A Year X, Y, Z Key Challenge

What Science Often Produces: Upper Best Lower Impact A Model Analysis 1 Empirical Analysis 7 Model Analysis 4 Upper Best Lower Impact A Upper Best Lower Impact A

Projected Increases in Annual Temperature 2020s 2040s 2080s °C°C Compared with average Climate Impacts Group 2009, Ch ºF ( ºF) +3.2ºF ( ºF) +5.3ºF ( ºF) °F Choice of emissions scenario matters more after 2040s Project Lifespan Parameter

Fast method for updating global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions G Myhre, K Alterskjær, and D Lowe Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009) Global Emissions & SRES Projections

Considering Alternate Approaches: Benefits vs. Limitations of formal Scenario Planning Approach Major Benefits: Consistent with conventional risk management approaches Allows for an organization to explicitly “test decisions under a variety of plausible futures.” (D. Weeks et al, Parks Science, Aug. 2011) Major Limitations: Requires “availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information” (S. Dessai et al, Global Environmental Change, 2005) Requires significant investment of time by staff

Integrating Key Factors in the CIMPACT-DST Climate Observations & Projections Spatial Information State & Federal Regulations Local Gov’t Policies State & Federal Regulations Local Gov’t Policies Best Practices

Functional Overview Primary Impacts  Temperature  Sea Level Rise  Precipitation Primary Impacts  Temperature  Sea Level Rise  Precipitation Secondary Impacts  Thermal Loads/Stress  Erosion/Landslides  Flooding  Etc. …. Secondary Impacts  Thermal Loads/Stress  Erosion/Landslides  Flooding  Etc. …. Type  Bridge  Building (new/remodel)  Drainage System  Electricity Distribution  Park/Open Space  Right-of-Way Type  Bridge  Building (new/remodel)  Drainage System  Electricity Distribution  Park/Open Space  Right-of-Way Lifespan  Up to 2030  Up to 2050  Up to 2090  Beyond 2090 Lifespan  Up to 2030  Up to 2050  Up to 2090  Beyond 2090 Hazard Zone  Flood Zone  Landslide  Sea Level Rise Hazard Zone  Flood Zone  Landslide  Sea Level Rise Project Factors Climate Factors Outputs Overview Impact Range Guidance Outputs Overview Impact Range Guidance CIMPACT-DST

Tool Overview Menu TitleOptions PROJECT TYPE Road Bridge Building Park/open space Drainage system Electricity distribution & transmission PROJECT NAME & LOCATION Project name Address Menu TitleOptions CLASSIFICATION New Remodel/retrofit/upgrade PROJECT/ASSET LIFESPAN Up to 2030 Up to 2050 Up to 2090 Beyond 2090 COASTAL INUNDATION POTENTIAL drop-down options, informed by GIS viewer PROXIMITY TO FLOODPLAINdrop-down options, informed by GIS viewer PROXIMITY TO LANDSLIDE HAZARD drop-down options, informed by GIS viewer OVERALL RISK SENSITIVITY High Medium Low

Link to GIS system

Seattle Project Objectives & Status -Deploying the tool as part of an effort to integrate climate change adaptation into capital project design -Status: -Building internal awareness with City staff -Pilot testing with a variety of projects (e.g., bridge project) -Integrating tool into current City project design process

Last Slide Next Steps: – Continue to deploy tool with local governments – Examine non-infrastructure focused applications Acknowledgements: City of Seattle staff, Adaptation International – Sascha Peterson, Cascadia Staff - Shannon Donegan, Christy Shelton, Andrea Martin, Sidney Brown. Contact info: